Cheap Mortgage Rates Fail To Spur Housing

By: Jill Schlesinger
Topics: Financial Decoder

This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.

You know that there's something wrong with housing when sub-5% 30-year fixed rate mortgages can't inspire buyers to budge. The MBA said mortgage applications dropped last week, despite hovering at 4.75%, yet existing home sales fell unexpectedly by 2.2% to an annual rate of 5.66 million units in May-new home sales are expected to drop nearly 5% when they are released later this morning.

An optimist might point out that existing sales were up 17.7% from a year ago, while a pessimist would say that we are piling up inventory, bringing the current supply of homes to 8.3 months (the peak level of supply was 11.2 months in 2008). Prices usually fall when inventory levels are above six months. Uh-oh.

Housing experts blame the expiration of the tax credit, which is not a good reason to extend it yet another time. In fact, the housing and mortgage markets are functioning in a rational manner: with lots of houses on the market, buyers are taking their time. Additionally, amid tight lending conditions and plenty of underwater borrowers, it's hard to qualify for a re-fi. Taken together, mortgage demand has dropped.

I don't think that we're about to see another massive collapse in the market, but with the supply of homes outstripping demand, prices could fall another 5-10%. The bottom line: we're going to have to wait for the housing market recovery to unfold the old fashioned way: allow market forces to burn up supply and find the proper level for prices.

(CBS)

Jill Schlesinger is the Editor-at-Large for CBS MoneyWatch.com. Prior to the launch of MoneyWatch, she was the Chief Investment Officer for an independent investment advisory firm. In her infancy, she was an options trader on the Commodities Exchange of New York.

Jill Schlesinger
>> View all articles
Jill Schlesinger, CFP®, is the Editor-at-Large for CBS MoneyWatch. She covers the economy, markets, investing or anything else with a dollar sign. Prior to the launch of MoneyWatch in 2009, Jill was the chief investment officer for an independent investment advisory firm. In her infancy, she was an options trader on the Commodities Exchange of New York.
Follow on Twitter »

3 Comments Have Your Say
Email Story Send to a Friend
Share This Tell Your Friends
Tweet This Tweet This
More Share It

Add a Comment


by babooph June 23, 2010 6:44 PM EDT: With the minimum wage dropping by more than 50% [including inflation],over 40 years or so,& very high local tax & insurance costs...; Reply to this comment


by DongWork4Yuda June 23, 2010 11:44 AM EDT: It has much more to do with the fact that the majority of Americans will never qualify for a $300K house ever....

Wages are stagnate or reducing, jobless rates are still high, and corporations are trying desperately to reduce wages and benefits of blue collar workers.

Until the American worker can rely on better paying jobs with great benefits house prices will continue to fall until they meet the wages of the home buyers....

In fact many of those who used the tax credit to be the reason they purchased a home will soon find themselves underwater on their mortgages and a solid % of these home owners will be foreclosed upon as housing prices continue to fall...

This is a wallstreet and corporate America problem. Wallstreet and Corporate Ameirca have ot preform their own stimulus becuase if Americans don't have great jobs with solid incomes and benefits they won'tbe spending much money and the snowball will be getting much larger as it continues ot roll downhill.; Reply to this comment


by pragmatist1 June 23, 2010 11:04 AM EDT: This has nothing to do with the expiration of tax credits. It has everything to do with the fact that lenders refuse to give out mortgages to borrowers who aren't credit-worthy, have questionable financials and spotty work histories, and who generally pose a risk. Gone are the days when anyone can expect to get a mortgage just because they're breathing.; Reply to this comment