Amid surprise shifts, Senate control up for grabs

Rep. Todd Akin, R-Mo., on May 17, 2011, in Creve Coeur, Mo.

/ Jeff Roberson

(CBS News) Ever since the 2010 midterm elections, when Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives and picked up six seats in the Senate, the battle for control of the Senate has promised to be competitive: The two parties are separated by effectively six seats in the chamber, and both sides are pouring millions of dollars into the effort to seize control.

Democrats have a particularly robust roster of candidates to defend this cycle: Of the 33 seats up for grabs in 2012, 23 are held by Democrats. Republicans, meanwhile, need to flip just four seats - three if Mitt Romney wins and his vice president can serve as a tiebreaker - in order to gain the advantage.

Thanks to several unexpected and potentially game-changing developments, however, control of the Senate is still very much in play.

"Until the end of February I gave Republicans a 65-70 percent chance of taking the majority because it was all a numbers game," said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate and governor races for the The Cook Political Report. Now, Duffy gives the Republicans a 45 percent chance of taking the chamber.

"There's still a path to the majority for Republicans," she said. "But it's a lot harder."

Political game-changers

One of the most-watched races of the cycle is taking place in Massachusetts - where first-time candidate Elizabeth Warren is taking on Republican incumbent Scott Brown, who was elected with Tea Party support following the death of Sen. Ted Kennedy, who held the seat for almost 50 years. Warren, a consumer advocate tapped by President Obama to head up the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), was seen as a promising leader whose voice could easily find a place in the solidly liberal Massachusetts. But Warren consistently struggled to secure a definitive advantage over Brown in the polls, and she faced setbacks over a controversy about whether or not she improperly identified herself as Native American to further her career.

Two new surveys, however, show Warren opening up an apparent lead against the Republican incumbent - suggesting that the significant Democratic investments into her candidacy may finally be paying dividends.

A new poll out Tuesday by the Suffolk University Political Research Center shows Warren leading Brown 48 percent to 44 percent, while a survey released Monday by Western New England University's Polling Institute (WNEU) shows Warren leading by 6 points, at 50 percent to Brown's 44 percent. A previous WNEU poll from June showed Warren with a slimmer 2-point edge over Brown.

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[Repubs_R_Fiscal_Liberals]

by JV1970 September 18, 2012 6:25 PM EDT
Rocky you are right! This country can't stand four more years of failure!

------------

You mean twelve, unless you slept straight through GWB.

[Ericwvb]

The Democrats don't have any power in the Senate unless they have a filibuster majority, since the Republicans just hold the nation hostage until they get their way on every bill that goes through.

[audemus]

More and more voters are looking for integrity, and while they may or may not be entirely sold on the integrity of the Democrats, time and time again the Republicans have demonstrated they have mutated into the party of shameless-unapologetic lies, and special interest representation. This party has indeed lost it's way, and have developed a serious character disorder....if the Republicans were a single person, they'd be involuntarily committed for observation.

This is why right-wingers should not play with guns....or at least they should wear steel-toed boots when they do.

[Topkitty27]

I hope the term Republican is synonomus with Whig after the elections in November.
Whatever this type of "person" wants to call themselves, Democrat or Republican, are the same people that through out history have oppressed others so they can live like Kings.
The obstruct everything that the President does and then say that he is not doing his job?
The GOP is responsible for selling America to China, bring most of the foreign workers here, only to abandon them when the can find cheaper labor.
I don't know what to call folks with the view of the World that Mitt has. I that they are NOT American and that they are NOT Christian. When he speaks of the work environment in China, it is though he longs for American workers to be so desperate they will do anything for a job under ANY working conditions.
Why do Republicans think they are taking THEIR Country back, since in reality it never belonged to them until they took it from Native Americans that were in the way of "progress".
It has never been about race, but ALWAYS about cheap labor and more profit for the wealthy.
American workers stand in the way now in the same way Native American Indians did, and these merciless and souless excuses for human beings are going to take everything that Bush and Cheney missed during the 8 years of social cancer known the Bush Administration.

[sandiegopete]

I think a lot of people are wising up to the Tea Party. They hear comments from Romney criticizing retired people who are living on Social Security and savings but paying no income tax and the distain he has for veterans and they understand that the Tea Party is interested only in feathering their own nests regardless of the impact on the rest of the popluation.

[AOCGUY]

It would be interesting to see the control of the Senate swing to the exact percentage we now enjoy and watch the dems filibuster like the GOP has. I can hear the howls of pain now.

[davidd5063]

A perfect storm is brewing for the GOP as the myriad of arrogance they have offered as candidates help the entire party self-destruct before our very eyes. Ironic given the GOP's love of individualism and disgust for any form of collectivism. The South will continue to ensure a voice for bigots to rant and advertisers to support right-wing propogada outlets though. Elections do not change the hearts and minds of men.

[karek40]

Whoever wins will destroy the nation and their party if we continue down the path we are heading look at Greece.

[sjc_1]

in some states, voters have only recently become engaged in the Senate elections.

This is important, in polls it can be name recognition. The incumbent has the advantage and is assumed to be ahead. People know the Party of No do nothing House has been a barrier to progress and we need to move forward.

[bagberry]

If Elizabeth Warren wins, we should kick Massachusetts out of the union. How can sane people vote for a lying, marxist, really stupid woman for SEnate? They really will live up to their nick name is they elect her. Well, they were the only ones that voted for McGovern. And, they elected Teddy Kennedy over and over. The guy in there now at least is semi sane. Don't go back to your marxist guys again. They just send this country down the tubes. You might as well move back into the Soviet Union of old days. Stand in line for two rolls of tissue that have to last you for a month. These people want to regulate this country into oblivion. They have the only answer. But, like Obama, they just keep having to run with the same campaign slogans ( I'll cut the deficit, I'll cut the cost of education, etc etc) but they never do anything about it except take away more of our freedoms and make our country less stable. Don't do it Massachusetts.

[Solarrays247]

Geez....you're really messing up this morning! How could you possibly forget to add the words "socialist" and "communist" to your rant like you normally do? smh....

[AOCGUY]

I doubt that Scott Brown will be defeated unless the Tea Party goes after him. He has after all failed to live up to their hopes of being a right wing idealogue and instead has been a reasonable and sane repreentative. That said since when do the people of Massachusetts need to consult you (bagberry) with regards to who they select to represent them? Regardless of who they choose I personally will respect the choice the citizens of that state make.

[tvwatcher5345]

the dems with the independents will hold the senate, the republicans cannot recover from their self-inflicted wounds...the republicans should control the senate RIGHT NOW, they had it in 2010, but they ran idiots like sharon angle, christine odonnell, and the nut in colorado....now we have akin, my girlfriend used to be a republican until this nut opened his mouth, and after obama wins re-election hilary will run, even republican women will vote for her...the republicans will not have a chance at the whitehouse for another 12 years....it is God's will