Romney aide downplays post-convention "bump"

AP Photo/Charles Dharapak

(CBS News) TAMPA, Fla. - Senior Mitt Romney strategist Stuart Stevens on Tuesday played down talk of a post-convention "bump" for his candidate, arguing that a variety of conditions - from the weather to the Obama campaign's enormous expenditure of money - has created a unique environment that may not provide the traditional boost in polls that most candidates enjoy.

"Of course, this convention is different because of the hurricane," Stevens told reporters on Romney's charter flight to Tampa. He argued that, in general, "conventions are different now," pointing to changes in scheduling - conventions now happen later in the summer with Republicans and Democrats scheduling their respective events back-to-back, instead of weeks apart.

He also cited the unprecedented amount of money being raised and spent. "We've never come into a convention after another campaign has spent half a billion dollars, plus the outside groups," he said, referring to the more than $580 million that Obama's campaign has spent so far this cycle (Romney's campaign has spent nearly $400 million). "So I just think all bets are off about any kind of past performance being a predictor of the future."

Stevens' remarks were a shift from earlier in the month, when a senior adviser speaking on background said that the convention "should be of more benefit to Mitt Romney and our campaign than it will be to Barack Obama, because Barack Obama is already pretty well defined." The adviser was referencing historical polling that has shown that challengers who are less well known receive a greater boost in the polls than incumbent presidents.

But his remarks were in in line with what other Republicans have said -- that a rigidly polarized electorate, saturated with information about the candidates, and subjected to a campaign that stretches toward two years, has led to smaller shifts in voter allegiance following recent conventions.

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Since 1964, the median "bump" or "bounce" earned by presidential candidates in Gallup polling after their conventions has been 5 percentage points. In some cases, the convention bump has receded quickly, as presidential debates and other outside factors dominate the storyline. But in other years, a convention bump has set the tone for the final few months of the campaign.

Romney arrived in Tampa on Tuesday with his wife, Ann, who is scheduled to address the delegates this evening at 10 p.m. ET. While Ann did a walk-through of the convention hall, Romney retired to a nearby hotel where aides said he will spend the afternoon with family and working on the speeches he is giving this week - one on Wednesday in Indianapolis, as well as his Thursday address to the delegates.

(Watch: The Republican presidential primary, in four minutes.)

According to Stevens, Romney has written his own convention speech after spending months thinking about it, reading other speeches and materials on important subjects, and talking to a wide variety of people both in and outside the campaign.

"It'll be a clear vision of a Romney presidency, very much from his heart, about America, and why he wants to be president and what a presidency would mean," Stevens said.

He said the soon-to-be nominee will focus on the sense of disappointment he says Americans feel with the pace of economic recovery while Obama has been president: "The question is do we accept that disappointment or do you think we can do better, and that's really what this race is going to be about."

As of now, no contingency plans have been made to shorten or move Romney's Thursday night speech should Hurricane Isaac worsen or cause significant damage to the coast, according to Stevens. But he does expect Romney to address the storm in his remarks.

Recent polling has shown a tight race, including a CBS News poll released on Tuesday that showed Obama getting 46 percent of support among voters who lean towards a candidate, compared to 45 percent for Romney.

"I think it's extraordinary going into the convention tied or with the lead," Stevens said. He added optimistically, "I think if the election were held tomorrow, we'd win and win pretty easily."

[goat5691]

Having just turned off the Convention and watched Ann
Romney's topic of Love and family I thought about other leaders who had notorious character that also enjoyed their families as well and what has that to do with the way they lead their own countries? Absolutely nothing.

And then there was Gov. Chris Christie who decided that Respect was above Love. He went on with so much rhetoric about this beautiful country and how it needed to get back to where it was great he had some in tears. He had a powerful speech for the delegates. But lets not kid ourselves. We know what they plan to do if they were to get back in power again.

[mikesfilms]

This is facts, not hogwash from your damaged brain: Reuters poll (8/17/12): 67% of world executives say Obama better for the economy than Romney/Ryan. In the worldwide recession, under Obama, we're doing better than the rest of the world: GM recovered to first automaker in the world. Banks earning record profits. Wall St touching ceiling, and more. Assoc Press 8/23/12: Builders are growing more confident and the recovery of the US housing market will add to economic growth in 2012, first time in 7 years. "Evidence that the housing market is recovering is fairly clear," RDQ Economics, forecasting firm. Associated Press GfK poll: 58% of adults expect Obama to be re-elected. Even 43% Repubs expect Romney to lose. GOP chosing worst candidate to defeat Obama.

[no1blonde]

An easy win? Hmmmm. What is he basing that on? Hoping to disenfranchise voters? Deliver a detailed plan and how it will be implemented with such a divided congress. Then maybe a slam dunk can be decreed!

[HandyAndy5]

I am not interested anything rich-b*tch Romney has to say. She's had health problems? Well, boo-hoo. My friends had both MS and cancer, too. The difference is that they don't have servants, private medical staff and the best medical care to help them out. THEY HAVE TO WORK FOR A LIVING.

And, the one who most recently had breast cancer thought her insurance would cover her emergency treatment. Guess again. Although she was employed, she had to go on public assistance to get treatment and stay alive.

The new health care laws could have made her insurance pay. Romney wants to do away it. Vote for Romney? Not in a million years.... Not in a million years.

[nygurl1]

Sorry about your friends. They are so far up in the stars they have no idea what life is like with the regular citizens.
Hopefully lots more people now realize what they are really like.

[zysmith]

As Lewis Black would say, these guys are deluuuuuuusional. They are downplaying expectations because they have none. They are whispering past the graveyard, hoping that no one notices how poorly their candidate is doing and how poorly the American public is receiving their radical agenda. When all is said and done, and the President has been re-elected, you will see a major battle over the GOP. Let's hope the more reasonable factions step up and wrest control from the radical minority.

[solasailor]

Yea, and I bet nobody ever came to your lemonade stand either! Must have been a hurricane then too!

[solasailor]

Yea, and I bet nobody ever came to your lemonade stand either! Must have been a hurricane then too!

[Shibbol]

McCain and Palin had an 8% bump in polls after the 2008 convention. They led Obama-Biden 50-46% four years ago at about this time in Gallup polling. It will be interesting to see the GOP bounce this time around.