Obama, Romney in dead heat in presidential race

CBS News

CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

(CBS News) President Obama and Mitt Romney are effectively tied in the race for the presidency, according to a new CBS News/New York Times survey.

Forty-seven percent of registered voters nationwide who lean towards a candidate back Romney, while 46 percent support the president. Four percent are undecided. The 1 percentage point difference is within the survey's three-point margin of error.

Romney leads by eight points among men; the president leads by five points among women.

The president's supporters are more likely to strongly back their candidate. Fifty-two percent strongly favor Mr. Obama, while just 29 percent of Romney voters strongly back the presumptive Republican nominee.

More than one in three Romney voters say they are supporting Romney primarily because they dislike Mr. Obama. Only eight percent of Obama supporters say their support for the president is tied to their dislike of Romney.

Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats when it comes to voting in this election, though just one in three registered voters overall are more enthusiastic than they were in the past. Roughly half of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic compared to past elections - up from 36 percent in March - while just 27 percent of Democrats say they same.

One in five registered voters with a candidate choice said they still might change their mind. The percentage of those willing to switch was essentially the same for both candidates.

Forty-five percent of registered voters say they are paying close attention to the campaign, and another 38 percent say they are paying some attention. Seventeen percent say they are paying little or no attention.

Fifty-four percent of registered voters cite the economy and jobs as "extremely" important in their presidential vote, more than any other issue. Here Romney has the edge: 49 percent of registered voters say he would do a better job handling the economy and jobs, while 41 percent cite Mr. Obama.

Romney is also seen as better on the federal budget deficit (50 percent to 36 percent), taxes (47 percent to 42 percent) and illegal immigration (46 percent to 38 percent). Mr. Obama as seen as better on foreign policy (47 percent to 40 percent) and social issues (48 percent to 37 percent). Views of the candidates on health care and terrorism were split.

Thirty-eight percent of registered voters say Mr. Obama cares a lot about their needs and problems, compared to 25 percent who say the same of Romney. Registered voters were slightly more likely to say that Mr. Obama says what he believes (45 percent) than to say that Romney says what he believes (37 percent).

Only 28 percent believe Mr. Obama has fulfilled his promise to deliver positive change for the country. Fifty-eight percent say he has not delivered change, while 7 percent say he has delivered change that has been bad for the country.

Mr. Obama's overall approval rating stands at 44 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. His approval rating on the economy is just 39 percent - 55 percent disapprove - and his approval rating on foreign policy is 41 percent. His approval rating on the economy has dropped five points since April.

Both candidates have net unfavorable ratings. Forty-eight percent of registered voters view the president unfavorably, while 36 percent view him favorably. Romney is viewed unfavorably by 36 percent and favorably by 32 percent. Nearly one in three say they do not yet have an opinion about the presumptive Republican nominee.

Seven in 10 Americans say the economy is in bad shape. While 24 percent say it is getting better - down from 33 percent in April - 30 percent say it is getting worse. That marks the highest percentage who say the economy is getting worse since December.

Two in five Americans say they are very concerned someone in their household will lose their job.

MORE FROM THE POLL:

Most say Romney policies favor the rich

Most say Obama policies contributed to downturn

John Roberts more popular among liberals than conservatives

VP choice matters to most voters

Read The Complete Poll

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This poll was conducted by telephone from July 11-16, 2012 among 1,089 adults nationwide.

Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

[dbtkgrace]

All reliable data shows that the middle class have suffered horribly under Republican control. Hell with reliable data, just look at your own economic conditions since the Reagan/Bush economic plans and there is no doubt in my mind that "majority" of middle class suffered. Therefore, it boggles the mind to see the Republican "middle class" planning to vote for Romney. There is no sensible reasoning for this, no logical explanation. Is it simply a matter of loyalty? Is it abortion? I understand these issues are important. But aren't these issues less important than say education and health? Especially for our children and grandchildren? And isn't it the "future" that we should be most concerned about as voters?

I've been voting for the past 40 years whether local, state, or national. You vote local, even state, based on your "personal" views. But you vote for the good of all, especially the middle class, when you vote national. It's your duty.

[Maerzie]

WHY, oh why do they still have a JULY poll up there?? Is it supposed to see if anyone pays attention?? Romney has gone so FARRRR down the tubes since then because he just keeps making the mistake of opening his mouth, and peeople are just SHOCKED when such little SMARTS come out!

[David_icke_knows_best]

I do not know but I will blindly vot romney over obama

[bluejacket2-2009]

Dear CBS, it's time to spend some cash on a new poll... or take one down as it's totally non reflective of the American opinion as of 9/12/12

[hallagon]

Well since cbs never called me up to vote on the poll (making me wonder who really was called) I vote for obama. Made up my mind after the DNC was televised.

[walkthetalk]

Mr. Rommey has no chance of winning this Election, It's over for Him. I have just heard some very disturbing news Today and This absolutely means He is finished. This confirmation comes from the U.S.Coast Guard. At 1700 Hrs. on 09-06-12 A Fleet of a few Hundred small Craft were spotted some 43 NM off the NW West Coast of HAITI. The U.S. Coast Guard dispatched a P-2 Neptune Orion, from their Clearwater, Fl. Facility, to do a Recon Flyover and Intercept. The report stated. After numerous Low passes, It's now been positivly confirmed that on the Craft are several Thousand Souls. The Photo surveillance is shown in full detail and is being offered as undeniable evidence. We now know that there are over 700,500 Thousand HAITIAN ZOMBIES that are on the way too the U.S shores. We believe that Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, and Louis Farrakhan, are making arrangements to get them registered to vote.

[Maerzie]

Sounds like someone is trying out for Rush Limbaugh's job on FAUX NEWS!

[Maerzie]

The only difference is that Rush Limbaugh has millions of dollars worth of personal liability insurance covering his butt for when his lies get too far out of hand, and somebody decides to sue him. I certainly hope Susan Fluke did!

[guyfrompa46]

Bye bye

[RichardoMontlebahn]

DRINK THE KOOL AID
DRINK THE KOOL AID
DRINK THE KOOL AID

You sheep.

The color of mans skin is no reason to elect him but I know blacks and old hippie women who never grow up that would follow him into a wood chipper just because he is black.

[Maerzie]

Actually, BECAUSE he is black, is the ONLY reason the Teapublicans HATE him! Obama had the AUDACITY to become president , instead of staying "in his place", where the accidentally WHITES (soon to be the minority in our country!)decided he should STAY! Too bad the Teapublicans can never FIND any "WHITE" as smart, as ingenious, as capable, as diligently focused, as accomplished, and as American, as Barack Obama, in spite of the Teapublican destructive slander and mission to depose him!

Mitt Romney thinks we only felt warmth and devotion and love for Obamathe DAY we voted for him?? How ignorantly WRONG! That's just ONE of the crooked, back-handed, schemes the Teapublicans have been using to TRY to put their wishes into people's minds! It is THEIR party whish are losers and have failed us, with all their anti-American trickery! Amazing that ALL that corporate money only put Romney up ONE point in this poll! What a waste of millions!! And they didn't even bother to call me or anyone I know! Sort of a narrow sample too, obviously! Such a suprise!! In college, I could make my polls in statistics, turn out any way I
wanted them to be, which is how these games work!

[TJphoto]

The Debates are coming! Sharks 12 - Surfers 1 / Lions 47 - Christians 3. Bring it on!!!!!

[Maerzie]

But such a FEW GENUINE "Christians"! The lions will be able to smell the phonies in a second. I've trained them to go for the jugular of the phonies right off the bat!

[Maerzie]

I can't WAIT for the debates! The Tea-Partiers, especially Mitt Romney, who even put his foot in his mouth sevearl times when he was trying to make points overseas, will be HAMBURGER, the CHEAP variety, no matter how long he studies. He just doesn't know enough about the REAL world, outside his bubble!

[AlanBeasley]

How dare anyone question the SEAL guys! My book has been in print for a long time and it validates the SEAL account TO THE TEE!
(and was lauged at by the left leaning media - who's laughing now!)

Page 89 -

"...bin Laden had been under a form of house arrest for years in Pakistan - rarely seeing the light of day. His health and mental faculties had deteriorated significantly, and he longer led any terror groups or had anything to do with attacks. He was obsessed with creating his own persona and legacy - and ironically spent most of the day watching U.S. television stations.

He was barely able to walk for more than a few minutes - and certainly wasn't worried about U.S. forces seeing him out in the courtyard. U.S. Forces were hundreds of miles away and were not looking for anyone in the shadow of a large Pakistani Military Base complex and training Facility."

So unless the entire team at Amazon or legacyofsuccessbook website are all part of some conspiracy...

[trickydix]

F**k these bulls**t polls. I'm a white male Republican. I never received any polling phonecalls. My friends never receive polling calls. So just who are these people talking to? I would never vote for someone like Romney. For those poor, and middle class white people who support him, do you really think he gives a **** about you. Obama is already a rich f**k, so Mitts policies will help him also. So what you are doing, is voting out of hate, but in the end, you are the only ones that will be screwed! Be smart.

[alkjdklfj]

who do the registed independent voters vote?