Poll: VP choice matters to most voters

CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

(CBS News) WASHINGTON - A new CBS News/New York Times poll released Wednesday finds a significant majority of voters said a presidential candidate's running mate has an impact on their vote.

As buzz in the media about who Mitt Romney's running mate will be hits a fever pitch, 74 percent of registered voters said that a candidate's VP choice matters a lot or somewhat. Twenty-six percent of registered voters said the choice matters a lot to their vote, while 48 percent said it matters somewhat. Twenty-five percent said it doesn't matter at all.

Meantime, three and a half months before election day, Republican enthusiasm about voting this year has shot up since Mitt Romney clinched the nomination in April, from 36 percent of Republicans saying they were more enthusiastic in March to 49 percent now.

President Obama was helped to election in 2008 by a wave of voter enthusiasm among Democrats, however this year, Democratic enthusiasm is down a bit since March. Twenty-seven percent of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic about voting this year than they were in past elections, compared to 30 percent four months ago. And 48 percent of Democrats say their enthusiasm this year is the same as past elections, compared to 39 percent who answered the same question in March.

Independent voters' enthusiasm is also up with 29 percent saying they're more enthusiastic now from 22 percent four months ago.

Overall, voters aren't as enthusiastic about this year's election as they were in 2008. Just 33 percent of all registered voters said they were more enthusiastic this year than they were for past elections, compared to 41 percent in March 2008.

As for the direction of the country, voters are growing increasingly more pessimistic, however.

Sixty-four percent of those polled think the country is on the wrong track, up from 62 percent in May.

More results from this poll will be released Wednesday at 6:30 p.m. ET.

This poll was conducted by telephone from July 11-16, 2012 among 1,089 adults nationwide, including 942 registered voters. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

[albertj829]

I wouldn't vote for him no matter who his running mate is. He is not trustworthy and neither is anyone he picks as a running mate.

[Eugene2012]

Sarah Palin deserves another crack at the VP slot. Afterall, she has had four years to correct her past mistakes and I'm sure she knows more than any other possible VP wannabee.

[ricegf-2009]

"As for the direction of the country, voters are growing increasingly more pessimistic, however. Sixty-four percent of those polled think the country is on the wrong track, up from 62 percent in May."

Ah, CBS News. The table below this paragraph shows 61 percent in May, not 62 percent. But the margin of error isn't given, and that's the key. If it is 2.5%, as is typical in these polls, then the variations in the poll each month during 2012 look more like statistically insignificant noise than a significant increase in pessimism.

The raw numbers are certainly bad news for Mr. Obama's re-election prospects, but at least let's be honest about the trend (or lack thereof).

[Jaylah54200]

After Airhead Palin, these numbers don't surprise me at all.

[TheFoundersLive]

How do you know this, RAFL? Do you have inside information? Or is there a site we can go to in order to find out more about this?

[CaptainSmollett]

Look at the poll numbers above: Most folks think this nation has been heading in the wrong direction, by a wide margin (2:1).
As President, Obama has been setting the direction of this nation for almost four years. Looks like Hope & Change hasn't worked.

[cubscout09]

The economy being the biggest issue, 68% blame Bush.

The Daily Beast June 14th, 2012

Maybe, you should be more careful in selecting your metrics, just a friendly suggestion.

[CaptainSmollett]

In the final analysis, it is all about the ECONOMY, and the latest stats show a good chance we may be slipping back into recession. If so, say goodbye to Obama!

[albertj829]

We are slipping back into a recession but not because of Obama. The republicans only know one word and that is NO. Does anyone even remember the repubs holding the country hostage over the debt ceiling debacle? Of course not. Most folks have very short memories.

[Dancing-in-the-Streets]

Don't we have to wait until after the convention, so we know for sure Romney will even Be the Presidential Candidate? Things are looking pretty bad for him lately, he might not make it past that convention!

[cubscout09]

The litmus test may be the level of security at Tampa. Will this be anything like Chicago in 1968?

[CaptainSmollett]

I think you misspoke: things are looking pretty bad for Obama given that we may be slipping back into recession.

[baileycccc]

Romney is doing more to get President Obama elected than anyone. It should be noted that John McCain looked at Romney tax records four years ago and then chose the Palin skank as his running mate. Romney is hiding plenty in his income tax and if it comes out, GAME OVER.

[cubscout09]

Google: McCain 2008 Opposition file on Romney
The 200 page document is downloadable as a pdf from multiple sites.

[RollotheNorman]

Doesn't matter to me. Willard's bad enough that I wouldn't vote for him if he resurrected Teddy Roosevelt from his tomb to have him run for the number 2 spot.

[unclebernies]

It dosen't matter who Romney picks as VP because Romney will still be stuck on stupid.

[CaptainSmollett]

Stupid? The guy is more economically successful than Obama will ever be. I want a president who knows about business and economics. It is someting sorely lacking in the White House these days.