Gallup: Fractures in Obama's white support

(CBS News) As President Obama vies to secure his re-election this November, a new daily tracking poll from Gallup suggests his support among white voters has dropped five points since 2008 - with potentially significant consequences for his prospects this fall.

According to the survey, Mr. Obama faces a decline in support among non-Hispanic whites, college-educated voters, non-religious Americans and some other groups. The poll was conducted from May 21 through June 10, with responses from 7,343 registered voters.

Shortly before he was elected in the fall of 2008, 51 percent of U.S. registered voters supported Mr. Obama, compared to 46 percent today, according to Gallup. The survey shows that young white voters are less supportive of the president than they were in 2008: Mr. Obama's support has dropped from 52 percent support to 43 percent support among non-Hispanic whites between the ages of 18-29, a nine-point drop. Among those 30 and older, the drop is between five and six percent.

The president's support has declined among both non-Hispanic white women and non-Hispanic white men, including college-educated non-Hispanic white Americans of both genders. He enjoys higher support among women from this group, with 41 percent expressing support, than men from this group, 34 percent of whom support him. In 2008, 47 percent of non-Hispanic white women and 41 percent of non-Hispanic white men supported Mr. Obama.

The president has also experienced a loss of support among unmarried non-Hispanic whites, as well as low-income non-Hispanic whites.

The president's support is down nine percent among non-Hispanic whites earning less than $24,000 annually as well as those earning $24,000 to $59,999 annually, the survey shows. Among unmarried non-Hispanic white men, the drop is 12 percent.

According to Gallup's Lydia Saad, the poll shows that voters are split in their preferences for Mr. Obama and presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney - but, she writes, "the declines in support among Obama's core white supporters may be especially troubling for him if his campaign strategy is, as many have speculated, to repeat his strong 2008 performance among women, the working class, and young voters, as well as minorities."

[Nixonfan]

Mr. President, this what you get when you hand your campaign over to Valerie and Michelle, the wet hens. And when you lose? Look out for those two gals. They won't be happy campers back in Hyde Park.

[mememewhywhywhy]

"Mr. Obama's support has dropped from 52 percent support to 43 percent support among non-Hispanic whites between the ages of 18-29, a nine-point drop. Among those 30 and older, the drop is between five and six percent."

While 7,343 registered voters is a strong and sufficient statistical total sample, my guess is that the number of non-hispanic whites between the ages of 18-29 is not large enough to to support a high level of statistical confidence in the 9-point drop. If it is, then I suspect the analysis employed "data-fishing", which often leads to a Type II Error, meaning that if you look at enough data groups, and use a low enough confidence level, the possibility of finding a false positive increased - i.e., chances are the so-called drop is actually not "true."

[miryomin]

His poll numbers are down because Repubs in Congress have intentionally sabotaged the economy, and as Pres. he has to bear the brunt of the blame. Frustrating, but not insurmountable.

[michaelz06]

Smokey, I actually agree with what you are trying to say....but please either learn how to spell/type or perhaps start throwing comments out supportive of Obama.

[wfw3536]

The election will be about the economy and unless there is a major reversal Obama will lose. Obama could be doing better if he would actually present folks prior to the election with some new ideas about the economy. It is sad he decided to build his team almost 4 years ago with folks with no business background. The other problem is when you have no ideas you keep blaming Bush and how bad things were when you came to office. Well, Mr President folks belived in you to change things and lead. If you are part of the 23 plus million folks unemployed or a business owner who is hanging on by a thread, the blame game doesn't cut it for most folks.

[CaptainSmollett]

In other news, a recent poll indicates that 60% of small business owners have put hiring and investment on hold because of the political turmoil and uncertainty caused by the Obama administration. The irony is that the folks who are being hurt by this small business austerity are the ones who need jobs and opportunity - the very folks who voted for Obama in the first place.

[1stlttightwad]

My, my. At least it has only taken Americans 3 years to come out from under Obama's rhetorical ether..It too the Germans nearly 10. James Carville(sp) the rabid democrat said it best..If Obama sticks to the economy issues he has lost...Wonder why James said that? Could it be that even a loyal democrat realizes Obama cannot hide from the failure of his economic socialism.. Further proof of Obama's total ignorance of the American economy is his call for more money for teachers, firemen, and police..All he knows is that the majority of these groups are Union..We saw what happened in Wisconsin,did we not..He does not understand that cop,teachers, etc., produce no saleable product that generates revenue and that they are only an expense to tax payers. Remember this, only small businesses and yes large businesses create income..there is no such thing as Made by the US Government,,Government LLC, or Government, Inc., IS THERE. NO government entity creates income..it only takes from those that produce. Now maybe you can understand the dissatisfaction with Obama..people realize that he doesn't have a clue and are not willing to follow him down the path that he has chosen and refuses to change.

[tmittelstaed]

We know why Obama's approval has gone down - because for the past 2 years he hasn't done anything. People are sick of it and want some changes. What they seem to forget is that the reason he hasn't done anything is that the Republicans decided to refuse to cooperate with him to pass anything. They are hoping that people will get tired of the gridlock and vote for a Republican to make changes. What people are forgetting is that if Romney wins because of this strategy, the Democrats are going to play the exact same game and Romney will be another one-termer.

[1stlttightwad]

Didn't know Reid was a Republican. A bill in order to come up for a vote has to be brought out of committee and that is ONLY with the permission of the senates leader(Reid) if that is denied it is considered to be "tabled"..THE only budget Reid allowed was Obama's budget..For the First time in history a sitting presidents budget failed to receive even a single vote in favor by ANY member of the House or Senate. When Obama cannot get ONE vote even by members of his own party what does that tell you? Now when Romney gets elected so will a lot of republicans and the balance in congress will shift so that gridlock can be avoided.

[marychgo]

CBS: It would be nice if we could have a comments thread here, rather than a chatroom. Just a thought....

[1stlttightwad]

Race shouldn't matter but Obama makes it so. Guess you haven't heard Obama's latest radio ad being aired only on black radio stations have you. To paraphrase the ad Obama tells his black audience that he has their "back" so they MUST give him their "back" to allow him to finish out his agenda. And just what is his agenda? Guess it's a secret, like he told Medvedev, "I'll have more leeway after I'm re-elected." What leeway will he have then that he does not have now. Oh, chit, he doesn't have to answer to the American public, that's what it is.

[1stlttightwad]

Race shouldn't matter but Obama makes it so. Guess you haven't heard Obama's latest radio ad being aired only on black radio stations have you. To paraphrase the ad Obama tells his black audience that he has their "back" so they MUST give him their "back" to allow him to finish out his agenda. And just what is his agenda? Guess it's a secret, like he told Medvedev, "I'll have more leeway after I'm re-elected." What leeway will he have then that he does not have now. Oh, chit, he doesn't have to answer to the American public, that's what it is.

[RollotheNorman]

Gallup Daily Tracking? Just had to say something to make the deadline huh? All polls are not the same, the Gallup National (not daily tracking) has had an often remarked on 3 - 5 point Republican bias for decades. The daily tracking poll is just rubbish, it's easily as biased as Rasmussen's daily.

[marychgo]

You're right, Roll; Gallup's reputation has been deteriorating for years....

[1stlttightwad]

How does that compare to the 90% media bias for Obama?

[moretruthnow]

I am white and I know many white women and men who will support President Obama. Why would anyone in the middle class and working class vote for republicans who stand against creating jobs, are against protecting women's rights, and who always stand for the 1% and don't care at all about the 99% who are being harmed by the GOP that stands against creating jobs and who are owned by the corporate elite who will do great harm to America. Who will keep sending jobs overseas? The republican billionaires of course. Who will never care about the middle class and working poor who need to be protected from the hateful and wicked republicans who want to end Medicare, want to end regulations that protect Americans and who are so determined to please corporations that they are so anti-environmental. The GOP have become anti-American and their votes against jobs and against everything that helps senior citizens.

[marychgo]

Agreed, moretruthnow. Not to mention the fact that the GOP's solution to every problem is to do more of what we did during the GWBush administration...I guess because it worked so well!