Gabrielle Giffords big factor in Arizona election

Mark Kelly, left, former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, and Ron Barber gather during a get-out-the-vote rally at the Rialto Theater in downtown Tucson, Ariz., Saturday, June 9, 2012.

/ Mamta Popat,AP Photo/Arizona Daily Star

(CBS News) Ostensibly, the special election taking place in Arizona's 8th district today is a decision between Democrat Ron Barber and Republican Jesse Kelly.

But in reality, the election is about a lot more: Feelings about President Obama in this Republican-leaning Southern Arizona district, Democrats' chances of taking over the House next year, and, most notably, the legacy of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., who announced in January that she would step down from Congress.

Roughly one year earlier, Giffords was one of 19 people shot at a "Congress at your corner" event that she was hosting in a Safeway parking lot in Tucson. Six people died in the attack, in which Giffords was shot in the head; she left Congress to concentrate on her recovery, setting up today's special election to serve out the rest of her term.

Among those shot in the attack was the 66-year-old Barber, who at the time was a Giffords aide; his campaign has argued that he will continue Giffords' work in Congress, an argument amplified by Giffords appearance at a campaign event for Barber over the weekend.

Giffords said little at the get-out-the-vote rally and concert, offering only a brief thank you, but her husband, retired astronaut Mark Kelly, told supporters the election was "a little bit about closure."

"This is closure on Gabby's career in Congress," he said. "It wasn't when she resigned in January."

Giffords' decision to campaign for Barber "makes a huge difference because of her enormous popularity and her bravery in dealing with the assassination event and all she has meant to southern Arizona," said Chip Scutari, the Republican half of bipartisan Arizona public relations firm Scutari and Cieslak, who predicts it will help drive up turnout for Barber today.

In part because of Barber's close ties to Giffords, Republicans have sought to turn the race into a referendum on Mr. Obama. It's a strategy that makes sense in a district in which registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats by more than 25,000 people, according to the Arizona Secretary of State's office. Giffords' victory over Jesse Kelly in the 2010 election was one of the narrowest in the nation, and it was a "testament to Gabby's skill and personality that she was able to win in a leaning-Republican district," said Arizona-based Democratic political consultant Barry Dill.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, in a television ad supporting Kelly, deemed a vote for Barber a "rubber stamp" for "failed Obama policies that hurt Arizona."

Wes Gullett, a Republican political consultant in Arizona, said that he believed Barber "hurt himself immeasurably" when he refused to say during a May debate whether he would vote for the president. (Barber's campaign later released a statement saying that he would vote for the president, though he has raised questions about the federal health care law that is his signature first-term accomplishment.) Gullett argued that Barber's attempts to distance himself from Mr. Obama reflect a lack of finesse that damaged his prospects.

"Ron Barber's not Gabby Giffords," he said, adding that Barber "doesn't have the same charm and charisma that Gabby Giffords had."

But while he has largely not talked about the shooting during the campaign, Barber is undeniably linked to Giffords in the minds of voters in the district. That reality has prompted Kelly, a 30-year-old Iraq war veteran, to use less negative rhetoric in this race than he did in his 2010 battle against Giffords. While both candidates in the race have been relatively civil, the same cannot be said of the outside groups operating on their behalf. Such groups have spent more than $2 million on the race, according to the Associated Press, GOP-linked outside groups outspent their Democratic counterparts $1.3 million to $900,000. The outside spending nearly offset Barber's $500,000 fundraising advantage over Kelly.

One ad from a Democrat-linked super PAC spotlighted a 2010 comment from Kelly in which he called Giffords a "hero of nothing." Kelly made the comment before the attack on Giffords, and Barber distanced himself from the ad.*

"The candidate campaigns have been fair to excellent," said Dill. "The independent expenditures have been pretty rotten."

With election watchers expecting the race to come down to the votes of the district's 124,000 independent voters, Kelly has largely abandoned his attacks on Social Security and Medicare, which he once derided as Ponzi schemes. Barber, who like Giffords has largely taken moderate positions, has sought to spotlight such comments to portray Kelly as a Tea Party-linked extremist. Kelly has tried to offset the effort in an ad in which he promises seniors he will make sure their benefits are protected.

For Democrats, a victory here could provide a glimmer of good news following their disappointing loss in the Wisconsin recall election. Democrats need to win 25 seats to take over the House in November, and hanging onto Giffords' seat would provide a psychological boost - though it's important to note that the district is set to change after the special election as a result of the 2010 census. Kelly plans to compete in the redrawn district no matter what happens on Tuesday; the primary is scheduled for Aug. 28 ahead of the November general election.

"This is a temporary victory for whoever wins, and then in November they do it all over again in the new redistricted version," said Scutari.

While most polls have shown a tight race, a survey from Democratic-leaning automated pollster Public Policy Polling out Monday found Barber leading Kelly 53 percent to 41 percent, with Kelly viewed negatively by 59 percent of voters in the district - a sign that the attacks on Kelly over his positions on entitlement programs may have moved the needle toward Barber among independent and elderly voters. More than half of those who will vote in the election have already cast early ballots by mail, however, which diminishes the impact of Giffords' weekend campaigning and apparent momentum for Barber.

As for Giffords, her husband says she may reenter public service once she has recovered sufficiently from her injuries.

At some point she could [run]," Mark Kelly told Politico. "She's getting better all the time, It's certainly not going to be this term, and I don't know after that."

"She wants to get back to public service," Kelly added in the Politico interview. "Whether it's elected office, I don't know."

*CORRECTION: This sentence has been changed to remove a comment incorrectly attributed to Ron Barber.

[Ericwvb]

It really doesn't matter how popular a candidate is in many districts. Corporate/1% Citizens United PACs can now dump unlimited funds into any race (See the 10:1 money advantage in Wisconsin in the Scott Walker recall), so either you're with the plutocrats and the 1%, or you're with the 99% and you will LOSE.

[rrowleyarizona]

Article: Jesse Kelly Trying To Walk Back His Call to Eliminate the Minimum Wage http://******/HYa1SG

Article: Jesse Kelly Would Privatize Social Security http://******/JPVE4E

Article AND Video: Jesse Kelly trying to hide endorsement by extremist racist group?? http://******/KEEkxX All about ALIPAC http://******/KLBcAj

Article: "Corporate Personhood" Citizens United Endorses Jesse Kelly in Special Election http://******/w4YGg8

Article: Jesse Kelly, Arizona Congressional Candidate, Claimed Not To Know Where Stimulus Funds Went http://******/LISvHf

Article and Video: Jesse Kelly Says Health Care Is A "Privilege You Earn" http://******/IrWsia

Article: CD8 candidate Jesse Kelly's economic platform similar to Communist nations http://******/zBKXth

Article: CD8 Republican Jesse Kelly Calls For New National Sales Tax http://******/xNFoui

Article: Giffords Opponent, Jesse Kelly, Held June Event to "Shoot a Fully Automatic M16 to "Get on Target" and "Remove Gabrielle Giffords" http://******/zsqdwJ and http://******/A5to9a

Article: PAC Behind GOP Candidate For Gabby Giffords Seat Shows Gun In Email Appeal http://******/LopnpN

Article: More Jesse Kelly Lies About Medicare http://******/IUOmPk

Article and Video: Jesse Kelly: "Oil Is A Renewable Resource" http://******/xlm23i

Article: Jesse Kelly Supported by Groups Tied to White Supremacists, Neo-Nazis, in 2010 AND 2012 http://******/HR9RfR

Letter: Tucson Tea Party Co-Founder: 13 Questions for Jesse Kelly that must be answered before you vote http://******/zCtsMM

Article: Jesse Kelly's firm benefited from stimulus he criticized http://******/MV8LGK

Video: Jesse Kelly's ENTIRE platform http://******/JjkdXr

Simply put, Jesse Kelly has neither the brains, credibility or honesty for public office, the will for fighting or the compassion to represent the people of southern Arizona either CD8 OR CD2.

[Stryder11]

Poor Libs are worried about losing, look at their comments! We're taking back this seat and will take back our nation in November, repeal Socialized Medicine and put Obummer, the Dumbacrat, on trial for treason! How's that for ya!

[Jon_Smiths]

The insane rhetoric of the Teabagger Opponent Jesse Kelly was used against him in a blistering ad campaign.....

"I'm all for eliminating the minimum wage...."

"Social Security is the biggest Ponzi scheme ever...... "

"Giffords is the hero of nothing....".

etc......the ads just repeated what he said in 2010 and as a local I predict he going to lose this race badly today.

[Jon_Smiths]

The insane rhetoric of the Teabagger Opponent Jesse Kelly was used against him in a blistering ad campaign.....

"I'm all for eliminating the minimum wage...."

"Social Security is the biggest Ponzi scheme ever...... "

"Giffords is the hero of nothing....".

etc......the ads just repeated what he said in 2010 and as a local I predict he going to lose this race badly today.

[Verbena02]

I don't understand people who are so adamant about the "right to bear arms." We're not fighting the indians anymore. (No disrespect intended for our native americans.)

[Phxfire]

We also have a National Guard as a militia as well as law enforcement agencies all over country. So there are two arguments by the NRA LOBBYISTS refuted. There also needs to be an end to ignoring "well regulated". No restrictions on private or gun show sales allows mentally ill, violent, angry, greedy, soulless,obsessed individuals to buy any type or number weapons LEGALLY. Not only are we biggest users of illegal drugs, but we are biggest sellers of weapons to cartels. How much blood and death is enough for NRA and gun zealots? Everyone owning guns just means more violence.

[rightofwrong]

@Phxfire, incorrect. The National Guard is not a militia, it is a segment of the US military. Since there are no "well regulated" militias in the US, the Second Amendment still stands. You have obviously never been to a gun show in the last 10 years. No one can purchase a firearm without an instant check. Please pull your cranium from your sphincter. Standing on the First Amendment while pissing on the Second shows great ignorance.

[sharong59]

You go Gabby and Ron! Show those Repugs, that can't terrorize Dems out of a district! A lot of his lead has to do with the fact that Gabby's office windows were SHOT OUT prior to her being shot in the head! It was said the wacko kid with the gun was teabagger leaning and he felt Gabby didnt give him the attention he was trying to get.
Then you have Ms. I can see Russia from my house and I hunt moose, telling constituents to "reload" and she had Gabby's district in her "crosshairs" to egg nutcases like the kid who shot her on! I do not like guns and think if they were nationally banned except for hunting rifles for hunting, the world would be a lot safer plaace! The gangs out there, a lot of their weapons are stolen from people who legitamitely owned one! I bet Gabby doesn't support gun laws anymore! Would you?

[rightofwrong]

Off your meds again?

[Phxfire]

There is no proof the shooter had any one polical philosophy, kind of all over the place, including the Tea Party, but not limited to them. I hare guns, too, but the Constitution does have some guarantees. I don't believe Adams, Jefferson, Franklin etal, meant unlimited ownership of any weapons, especially offensive weapons. Nor did they believe in UNREGULATED purchases and ownership. Its legal to purchase any kind, any number of weapons through private sales or at gun shows without any checks. Allowing MENTALLY unfit, violent, angry, abusive, criminal and/or greedy, soulless buyers to obtain unlimited number of weapons. This leads to deadly road rage, sale of weapons to drug cartels and Viirginia Tech events, etc. Past time to end financial hold on Congress by NRA and fulfilling 'well-regulated' purchases and ownership.

[mick7744]

To reward a tea-partying, gun-nut extremist like Jesse Kelly with Gabrielle Giffords' seat in congress would be beyond obscene...

But...we ARE talking about Arizona...

[weneedbigchanges]

He states "the right to bear arms" in his statements. Does this make him a "gun-nut extremist"? I think you are going a bit too far to the left on this one. Why not come back to dead center and not be so "extremist" yourself. I think your statement is more extreme than his.

[rightofwrong]

This post is obscene.