Poll: Romney has slight edge over Obama

President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney

/ Getty Images

Updated: May 15, 12:45 p.m.

CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

(CBS News) Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney has a slight edge over President Obama in the race for the White House in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

According to the survey, conducted May 11-13, 46 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Romney, while 43 percent say they would opt for Mr. Obama. Romney's slight advantage remains within the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus four percentage points.

Last month, a CBS News/New York Times poll showed Mr. Obama and Romney locked in a dead heat, with both earning 46 percent support among registered voters. Polls conducted in February and March showed Mr. Obama with an advantage over Romney, while a January poll showed Romney edging out Mr. Obama 47 percent to 45 percent. Another January poll showed the two tied.

Neither candidate, however, has had more than a six-point lead over the other since CBS News/New York Times began conducting head-to-head in polls this January.

Despite recent controversies surrounding issues like same-sex marriage, which Mr. Obama came out in support of last week, the poll indicates that the economy remains the most important issue to voters in the presidential election.

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Full poll results (PDF)

Sixty-two percent of registered voters cited the economy as the most important issue in the presidential election. Concern over the budget deficit ranked a distant second at 11 percent, followed by health care at 9 percent. Seven percent picked same-sex marriage, 4 percent cited foreign policy and 2 percent chose immigration.

CBS News

Most Americans (67 percent) believe the economy is in bad shape, but respondents expressed the most optimism on that issue since January 2008 - months before the economic crisis was in full swing. Thirty-two percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape, and 36 percent said they thought it was getting better. Twenty-four percent of Americans said they thought the economy was getting worse, and 39 percent said they thought it was staying the same.

Fifty percent of Americans said they approve of Mr. Obama's performance as president, while 48 percent disapproved. Except for the month following the death of Osama bin Laden, when Mr. Obama's approval rating ticked up to 57 percent, this matches highest his approval rating Mr. Obama has enjoyed in two years.

Romney now leads the president among independents, while Mr. Obama has an advantage among moderates. Independents opted for Romney 43 percent to Mr. Obama's 36 percent, whereas moderates supported Mr. Obama 50 percent to Romney's 39 percent.

Romney took the lead among women voters, who supported the former Massachusetts governor 46 percent to Mr. Obama's 44 percent, which is within the poll's margin of error. In April, Mr. Obama had an edge among women voters, with 49 percent support to Romney's 43 percent.

Both candidates continue to perform well with their political base. The president gets solid support from Democrats and liberals, while Romney is running strong with Republicans and conservatives.

Neither candidate has particularly strong favorability ratings, although Mr. Obama outperforms Romney in that arena: 45 percent of Americans each said they view the president favorably and unfavorably. Only 31 percent gave Romney a favorable rating, while 38 percent gave him a negative rating. Many voters continue to be undecided about Romney or haven't heard enough about him to have an opinion.

Obama team's attack on Romney mirrors 1994 race
Search the CBS News polls database

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This poll was conducted by telephone on May 11-13, 2012 among 615 adults nationwide, including 562 registered voters, who were first interviewed for a CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted April 13-17, 2012. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters is four percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

[BanjoGOD]

wow! we all live on "America Street" people are listening to Romney Girl in this viral video http://youtu.be/PiPYv4NIOEg

[2ew4]

mitt is going to win

[GeorgeVeritas]

It is a fact that Obama inherited much of the nation's economic woes from GW Bush and his Republican cohorts. And what the poll takers seem to ignore is that the real reason America is an economic mess is because of Republican protection and deregulation of Big corporations, banks and Wall Street. If a poll was taken on how many Americans truly realize this truth it likely would show a majority simply don't understand what the Republicans have truly done to most everyone. The marriage of Congress to Special Interests is also a very real and tremendous reason the rich get richer every year and the poor get poorer. Add to that the Republicans decades record of favoring war over hunger in America and you'll have a far more honest picture of what has happened. So, Americans who ignore the facts, stop blaming Obama.

[freedom-usa1]

Yes, it is true that Obama inherited problems, however that is NOT an excuse. It is/was Mr. Obama's job to fix the problems that were inherited, and he has failed miserably. Mr. Obama already knew that there were problems when Oprah decided that he should run for President. Mr. Obama never should have ran for President in the first place since is unable to handle the nation's economic problems.

[TJphoto]

I don't buy it for a minute.

[tepeterso]

CBS poll was basewd on a clal bak as I understand it. It is out of sync with otehr polls-Real clear Politics in its Poll of Polls did not include the CBS head to head poll because it was questionable as was true of MSNBC.

[BlameRepublicanz]

no poll will change the fact that Mr. "wal mart is a person" will NEVER be President...ever.

[ludvig1-2009]

I just read in one poll that only one in 10 people polled provide the answers to the pollster, so it is a lot of work to get one valid answer. I started hanging up on possible pollsters when I determined they weren't really pollsters at all but Repuglicans trying to get me to change my vote. I'd say I'm voting for McNerney for Congress and they'd say "Well if you knew this about McNerney would you still be voting for him." After one of those calls, I don't believe anyone is a pollster anymore. I figure it's just some political hack calling and I am not going to waste my time with them.

[rogget]

I can't believe anyone would think the economy is in good shape when only half of college graduates can get a job, with so many people out of work, and the many who have given up looking. Then there is inflation and high gas prices and a very poor housing market. How can anyone say the economy is in good shape? Something is wrong.

[realist2010]

It's better than it was when the last Republican administration was done with it. Keep in mind how we got into this mess.

[GeorgeVeritas]

I don't recall hearing anyone of significance saying the economy was in good shape since the George Dub-yah presidency. He and his Roman cohorts messed it up and continued to keep it messed up with their personal greed.

[verifabletruthmatters]

GROW GDP BY 158% W MILLIONS OF JOBS, LEAVE THE DEBT IN THE DUST; OBAMA WILL, GOP WON'T
Addressing Global Warming also addresses--Energy, THE DEBT, a way out of the RECESSION, and shuts down a horrific acceleration that's going to make the planet uninhabitable and kill BILLIONS.

There are millions of JOBS Obama has tried to get off the ground since 2009. GOP has worked hard to destroy RECOVERY to continue HIDDEN AGENDAS. U.S. gets full employment. It grows GDP making the DEBT a smaller portion of GDP. More people paying more taxes, which is more money to pay down the DEBT. If the U.S. and China go head-to-head to get to 80% Renewable Energy--wind, solar, geothermal by 2025 we can shut down this horrific acceleration the GOP has set up. The construction and operating costs on Nuclear are prohibitive as Amory Lovins at Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI.org) has repeatedly calculated and explained. We can generate 6 times the current U.S. electrical use just from reliable wind in South Dakota, Kansas and Texas, plus wind offshore in the Atlantic and Pacific and solar in the west. THIS NEEDS TO BE HANDLED LIKE A "MANHATTAN PROJECT" They've been dumb enough to lie for 3 decades about the physics that governs a planet. PHYSICS RULES, PHYSICS WINS; WHEN YOU CROSS IT, IT DESTROYS. Decades of bald-faced lies, about Global Warming, is the butchering of verifiable Truth, the violation of the associated Physics, and the violation of God's World. That's the cause of every accident and virtually every tragedy on this planet. Physics doesn't tolerate being violated and the DECEIT coming out of the Right Wing owned by the multinationals, is a violation of the Physics that governs a planet.

We have a small but quickly closing window of opportunity to shut down the horrific acceleration underway, because two precious decades have been lost due to the Campaign of DECEIT by the GOP & Dirty Fossil Fuels.

Millions of people will migrate to find food and water sparking wars and death. It will be a HUGE National Security issue. BIG OIL, especially Exxon Mobil and $100 BILLION/YR oil conglomerate Koch Industries who funds and scripts the TEA Party, are currently those pushing the Disinformation Campaign. BIG OIL and the GOP need to be charged with: "CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY" AND "BREACH OF NATIONAL SECURITY". Permafrost melting containing TEN TIMES what is already in the atmosphere, oceans turning into vats of acid, one city in the US already with millions of dollars of damage will be TRILLIONS by 2020, weather going to the extremes, HUGE National Security issues. Where's the research proving all this?
***NPR, Science Friday, Jan 22, 2011, the 11th Annual "Changing Climate, Changing Oceans Conference", Extensive discussion of ocean acidification and destruction of the life forms. 10-21-2011Interview w Lovins about REINVENTING FIRE, 3-4-2011, 1-20-2012 Wind resources
***NPR, The World (PRI) March 8 and 9th, 2011, talking to Mark Hertsgaard who has covered Climate Change for at least two decades.
***PBS, Need to Know, Feb 25, 2011 and June 24, 2011 Norfolk VA inundated with sea level rise, the millions in damage and which cities are next, discussion with Mark Hertsgaard about HOT: the Next 50 years on Planet Earth
***Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen one of 3000 Climate Scientists frustrated that they are fighting against ignorance and incessant lies about the physics that governs a planet
***Science As a Contact Sport by Dr. Schneider, colleague of Dr. Hansen, also frustrated to be fighting against lies backed by hundreds of millions of dollars by corrupt corps like Exxon and Koch Industries
***Field Notes From a Catastrophe by Elizabeth Kolbert--all the damage being done in Alaska
***The Heat is On and Boiling Point--3 decades of Dirty Fossil Fuels "Disinformation Campaign" and the Mainstream Media totally failing the American People on a matter this serious and deadly when they fail to stick to the science and the physics by Ross Gelbspan
***The Climate War by Eric Pooley; 3 decades of GOP and BIG OIL's "Disinformation Campaign" because BIG OIL wants to sell TRILLIONS in oil products, corrupt just like Wall Street
***PBS, NOW, 2010, How the Muldees Islands are being inundated with water and all their residents have to move; 300,000 people in Bangladesh who have already been displaced as they lose about 1/3 of their country. 90 metric tons of pollution dumps into the atmosphere/day.
***Our Choice--3000 Climate Scientists explain the problem after 50 years of study
***Eaarth by Bill McKibben--how our planet has already been changed forever because Americans won't be responsible to the physics governing a planet, 350.org
***NOVA, "Secrets Beneath The Ice";How dangerous is the melting of Antarctica? Very Dangerous
*** 350.ORG; Skeptical Science, de-Smog Blog, many others
***NPR, FRESH AIR, 8-26-20, 5-02-2012 KOCH INDUSTRIES & EXXON CORRUPTION

[Souptwins]

Next time, get a publisher!

[GeorgeVeritas]

I personally wish commenters like you would just refrain from clogging up the page with nonsense. Thanks.

[fortuenti]

Having to choose between Romney or Obama is like having to choose "potted meat-food product" or Vienna sausage for dinner [Personally, I know better not to eat processed garbage that has to be ground to a pulp because you'd never eat it otherwise...only a half notch above DOG FOOD] Ron Paul, on the other hand, is like prime rib ... you KNOW what you're getting...what else do you expect from a man who has no need for speeches scripted by others and read via TelePrompTer? Why do you think that is? Because his message never changes just to please his audience, perhaps?

[fmbarr]

Ron Paul is just plain nutty, I do not understand people's devotion to him.

[GeorgeVeritas]

Ron Paul is straightforward, knowledgable and would certainly be a good president, I believe. However, what too many Americans seem to be attracted to is the Jerry Springer show kind of media coverage which seems to concentrate on the two most colorful actors in the play for getting elected.