Inside the battlegrounds that could determine 2012

CBS News

(CBS News) The 2012 election will be decided mainly in a handful of states that President Barack Obama won in 2008. Now he must work to defend them. Part of that is a function of his success four years ago - he won states that Democrats don't often win and won easily in states that are usually closer. Another reason is a reflection of these highly partisan times, where there just isn't that much electoral room for either Romney or Mr. Obama to maneuver. But these are states that do more than just outline the horserace - they cover the whole range of coalitions and groups that will be in play.

Colorado

Colorado exemplified the shift toward the Democrats in 2008. Mr. Obama carried its upper-income voters, white voters and the suburbanites in Denver's burgeoning metro area and its sizeable number of moderates. These constituencies had previously been more for Bush and the GOP. However, they'll be decisive once again. Seizing on a boom-state's changing demographics, Obama's was also buoyed by younger voters under 45.

The 2010 Senate race here, where an untested Democrat won a tough race against a Tea Party challenger, gave Democrats hope that those moderates can be persuaded to stay in their camp. The Hispanic vote, too, is an important part of the equation, and especially if Romney can make gains among those upper-income suburbanites.

Florida

Florida is one of a number of battleground states devastated by the housing slump and slow recovery, and this state could hinge on turnout as much as swing voters. Mr. Obama made widespread, if marginal, gains for Democrats here and was really boosted by strong support from the base, which he'll need again. Mr. Obama won Florida's Hispanic vote (which is not entirely Cuban, but includes a large range of voters with ancestry in Mexico, Central America and Puerto Rico) coupled with the kind of backing from young voters and moderates seen in other states. He also won support in the exurban areas that fueled the states' growth last decade, but who were also among the hardest hit by the bust. Adding to the state's importance, it's worth two more electoral votes than last time.

Iowa

Organization mattered here in '08, and it was no accident that during the Republican caucuses in January the Obama campaign was on the ground too with their field organization. Its percent of self-identified Democrats, Independents, and Republicans split just about evenly - a great recipe for a swing state. In 2008 Obama carried one in five conservatives here, which included conservative Democrats. It's worth watching if Mitt Romney can cut into that percent. Iowa's electorate is a bit older than the national average and that's certainly a group in play in 2012.

Nevada

Devastated by the recession and housing crisis, this was a Tea Party hotbed in 2010, and one where the president's approval last year remained well below 50%. The once-booming suburban areas around Las Vegas, with plenty of independents and baby-boomers, have shown swings in recent cycles and could hold the key again. Hispanic voters will, deservedly, be one of the groups getting lots of focus if they are around 15% of the vote again.

New Hampshire

A quadrennial battleground that's shown a propensity to change party winners over the last few presidential cycles, it certainly could again, especially as Mitt Romney looks to capitalize on regional appeal from his time in neighboring Massachusetts. New Hampshire famously boasts a large number of independent voters (45%), which is a higher percentage than nationwide, and partisan affiliation runs about even. Unlike states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, there's not a large reliably Democratic urban vote for Mr. Obama. So it's all about the suburbanites and the younger voters under 45 who showed movement here in '08 and again in 2010.

New Mexico

Last presidential election cycle, Democrats greatly outnumbered either Republicans or independents and Mr. Obama won easily. The demographics here have often seemed to be moving in Democrats' favor, but New Mexico has a recent history of being very closely contested in part because many of its Democrats are conservatives and moderates, and the economy is a wild card factor especially among the working- and middle-class voters and smaller urban areas.

North Carolina

The race was razor close in 2008 so Mitt Romney and the GOP are eyeing a recapture. It's no coincidence the Democrats will hold their convention here this summer in an effort to defend it. Mr. Obama used very strong support from African-Americans and younger voters around the cities to offset strong margins for Republican challenger John McCain among white voters and white independents, in particular. But it was also closer than expected across the rural areas, which may give Romney a chance to build bigger margins there this time.

Ohio

Another Midwestern state that's lost some electoral clout (two fewer electoral votes), its history of switching between the parties will keep it squarely in the spotlight. Its sizeable working-class vote, always sensitive to the economy and the manufacturing sector often draws a lot of focus. (The auto bailout will likely be a key issue here, too.) Also worth watching is that Mr. Obama did well in the suburbs and with college grads. He also received enough upper income voters to stay competitive, and he held down the GOP's margins across the small towns, which are all patterns Romney could, and will need to, reverse.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is a common state on the battleground list. It is often hard-fought though it hasn't actually swung. Mr. Obama won it easily and it has stayed in the Democratic column since 1992. And this year it'll be worth fewer electoral votes. A win here would be a big pickup for Mitt Romney - to do it, he'd need to roll back Mr. Obama's margins in Philadelphia's more affluent suburbs (2010's midterms offered them hope to do so), appeal to the more conservative voters of western PA, make inroads with the older voters who were a tossup in 2008, and keep the GOP's edge among white working-class voters.

Virginia

Like nearby North Carolina, Virginia typified the coalition that can make fast-growing southern states competitive. It has expanding suburbs of more-moderate, professional and upper-income voters who trended toward democrats. It also sees large African American turnout and support and relatively good performance in smaller towns. In 2012 watch for all of those facets to be in play again, along with a big Senate race, that will make this a well-trod battleground.

Wisconsin

Before 2008 Wisconsin had recently been one of the closest presidential states each cycle, even though Democrats usually managed to squeak out wins. Then Mr. Obama won it comfortably, bolstered by younger voters as well as baby boomers and solid wins among white voters, including working-class whites. Two years later, Wisconsin's voters gave the GOP big senate and statehouse wins; however, a recall effort against the Governor takes place this summer. That will make for a compelling backdrop, with labor and spending issues front and center.

[mvymvy]

Presidential elections don't have to be this way.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in more than 3/4ths of the states that now are just 'spectators' and ignored after the primaries.

When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes- enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.

The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for President. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.

In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided Battleground states: CO - 68%, FL - 78%, IA 75%, MI - 73%, MO - 70%, NH - 69%, NV - 72%, NM- 76%, NC - 74%, OH - 70%, PA - 78%, VA - 74%, and WI - 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK - 70%, DC - 76%, DE - 75%, ID - 77%, ME - 77%, MT - 72%, NE 74%, NH - 69%, NV - 72%, NM - 76%, OK - 81%, RI - 74%, SD - 71%, UT - 70%, VT - 75%, WV - 81%, and WY - 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR - 80%,, KY- 80%, MS - 77%, MO - 70%, NC - 74%, OK - 81%, SC - 71%, TN - 83%, VA - 74%, and WV - 81%; and in other states polled: CA - 70%, CT - 74%, MA - 73%, MN - 75%, NY - 79%, OR - 76%, and WA - 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.

The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes - 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.

NationalPopularVote
Follow National Popular Vote on Facebook via nationalpopularvoteinc

[Snrsachse]

That was a lot of words to not say much. If the election is like the one 2008 Obama wins and if it is like the one 2010 Romeny wins. See how simple that is.

[MTATL67]

I think New Hampshire, New Mexico(Latino's despise GOP), Wisconsin (Gov. Walker corrupt and is hated), Virginia (Cantor - seen as failure) and strong possibility Pennsylvania (they booted Santorum big time out of Sen.) will go to President Obama.

[TimeToEvolve]

While we have to proceed with the fraudulent elections in America, we also need to mobilize people power from the bottom up. I am working with almost 100 progressive groups coast to coast to start a massive non-violent direct action campaign. This really works and is a fact of life in many European countries where the people are in charge.

The Top 1% needs our money, labor and consent for their system to work. That means we have the power to shut it down if we want.

[purplestates]

American voters need to ask Mitt Romney everyday until election date, what can he do for the U.S economy, beside a lie business plan to the White House; doubled down on the Bush tax cut by asking working poor and middle class to pay for his tax loophole.

GOP have being making false assertion that 45 percent of Americans pay no taxes at all and that the other 55 percent carry the entire load. We all know that's silly because working poor pays 6.2% to social security, 1.45% on Medicare, higher % of their income on State and Local taxes, as well as consumer good like gasoline. If you add this up, working poor in fact pay more taxes than Mitt's 13.9% tax rat.

[smv55]

to Aceduece---the govs in states like Ohio,Wisc,Fla are only unpopular among the union folks who have been taken down. They are more popular among the homeowners whose property taxes have gone down, and start up business folks who have less obstacles in their way. I guess the recall election in Wisc. will give us concrete proof as to who is going to come out on top.

[TimeToEvolve]

I think the Top 1% corporation radical Republicon governors are going to make a big difference in those states. They were selected into office in the mid terms when no one was looking (and voting). But now their radical agenda written by ALEC is being exposed. And it will hurt Republicons in every election.

[WHAT-IS-HE-SMOKING]

So what, the union people don't own homes?

[Smokey75]

I bet all you Obama supporters think Obama is so pro middle class and he is all about making those evil rich people pay their fair share.

I bet you didn't realize that since Obama took office in 2009 a person making a million dollars a year is bringing home $321 a week more where as if that same person was only making 60,000 a year he would only be bring home an extra $29.

So a millionaire needs 11 times the tax cut a person making 60,000 a year does. This is a direct result of Obama's tax policies he has signed into law, primarily the payroll tax cut that he extend to everyone!

Don't believe me here is a payroll calculator that will let you calculate payrolls all the way back to 99.

http://www.surepayroll.com/calculator/calc_paycheck_netpay.asp

[retm-w]

Well the gop sure isn't pro middleclass.

[purplestates]

Mitt Romney bring home 44 millions for two year income and only pay 13.9% tax rate. However, when he becomes president, he likes to cut that rate in half, and have gop supporters eat broccoli for health care.

[occupy_cbs]

Swing States Poll: A shift by women puts Obama in lead

President Obama has opened the first significant lead of the 2012 campaign in the nation's dozen top battleground states, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, boosted by a huge shift of women to his side.

The biggest change came among women under 50. In mid-February, just under half of those voters supported Obama. Now more than six in 10 do while Romney's support among them has dropped by 14 points, to 30%. The president leads him 2-1 in this group.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-04-01/swing-states-poll/53930684/1

[retm-w]

dump

Rush tried that already and it didn't work, for the gop.

[melpol12]

Women care very little about a man's political views, they want their guy to be generous with a buck. Recent polls show that Obama is the ladies choice with 70 % of likely voters, most would gladly change places with Michelle. Mitt Romney has won the admiration of millions of Cancer survivors; he has not divorced his wife Ann despite her health problems. But Romney cannot move into the White House unless he pulls more ladies away from Obama; the only way that is possible is to guarantee every woman voter a Platinum American Express Card. The National debt will then be increased but Romney will then become our next president.

[occupy_cbs]

With President Obama's 2:1 advantage in the gender gap over willard romney in the swing states, mittens had better pull something out of his azz like that "Platinum American Express Card" for every woman, or he could just bribe them with a check for $1,000.

[StellaWonder]

You MUST be a male.