Five takeaways from the new CBS/NYT poll
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You probably know the headline by now: In the new CBS News/New York Times poll, President Obama and presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney are in a dead heat, with each man receiving support from 46 percent of registered voters.
But there's a lot more to the poll than just the headline. Below, five findings from the survey that provide important insights into the state of the race:
Romney has Republican support - but not their love: Republicans have united around Romney, with 54 percent now saying they support him as their nominee - up from 30 percent in March, when Rick Santorum was still in the race. But after a long and bruising primary campaign, their support is grudging at best.
Just 33 percent of GOP primary voters "enthusiastically support" Romney - less than the 40 percent who say they support him with reservations. And 18 percent say they're backing Romney only because he is the nominee. (Eight percent say they don't support Romney.) The numbers are particularly bad among white evangelicals: Just 27 percent enthusiastically support Romney, while 50 percent have reservations.
The good news for Romney is that he still has time to define himself favorably among registered voters overall. While just 13 percent say they are undecided or need to know more about Mr. Obama to decide if they have a favorable view of them, 37 percent are undecided or haven't heard enouth about Romney. Both candidates currently have underwater favorability ratings - Mr. Obama is viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 45 percent, while Romney is viewed favorably by 29 percent and unfavorably by 34 percent - but Romney has more room to win people over. Of course, that also means the Obama campaign has room to define Romney negatively.
Obama is winning the beer test: In the past few presidential cycles, the candidate who has generally seemed more relatable - the one you'd prefer to have a beer with - has won the election. For example, think George W. Bush versus John Kerry and Al Gore, or Bill Clinton versus George H.W. Bush and Bob Dole. The rule doesn't always hold, but the candidate who voters can identify with more directly generally has a big advantage in a presidential race.
And on this measure, Mr. Obama has the edge. About half said Mr. Obama is someone they can relate to, roughly the same percentage who said he is not. Romney's numbers are much worse: 34 percent say they can relate to him, while 60 percent said they could not. Romney has made a number of comments during the campaign that have reminded voters of his enormous wealth - that his wife drives "a couple of Cadillacs," that he has "some great friends who are NASCAR team owners" - and he runs the risk of being defined as too removed from the problems of everyday voters to understand them. That four-car garage with its own elevator isn't going to help.
But that doesn't mean he isn't weak: Romney may be a relatively unpopular nominee, but the incumbent isn't exactly flying high either. Just 42 percent view Mr. Obama favorably, and 48 percent say they are not too or not at all confident in his ability to make economic decisions. (The economy is overwhelmingly the top concern of voters.) The relative unpopularity of both candidates dictates campaign strategy: The Romney camp wants to make the election a referendum on the less-than-loved president, while the Obama camp wants to make it a choice between the president and his less-than-loved challenger. With neither candidate particularly strong, each side is incentivized to tear down the opponent enough so their guy can squeak through - which means you can expect a nasty general election fight.
Married women vs. single women: The conventional wisdom is that Mr. Obama has an advantage with women and that Romney has the edge with men, and that holds true in this poll: The president leads 49 percent to 43 percent among women, while Romney leads 49 percent to 43 percent among men.
But women are not a monolithic group: Among married women - who represented 29 percent of registered voters in this poll - Romney has the edge, 49 percent to 42 percent. The president, meanwhile, dominates among single women, 62 percent to 34 percent. The poll shows the president has a big edge over Romney when it comes to who voters are confident will make the right decisions on women's health issues, but such issues would seem to be more important to single women than married women. For Romney, the best path to closing the gap among women may not be to win over single women, but instead to maximize turnout among women who are married.
The future looks grim: Nearly half of Americans - 47 percent - say things will get worse for the next generation - including a whopping 57 percent of parents with kids over age 18, many of whom are struggling to find jobs. Just one in four say things will be better for the next generation, suggesting that Americans do not see a world in which they can easily make a better life for their children then the one they had.
The (relative) good news? The percentage who predicts a worse future is actually down 11 points from 1995, when it hit 58 percent. So while Americans don't see a lot of good on the horizon, they're slightly more optimistic than they were in the wake of the recession that hit in the early 1990s.
More from the polls:
Obama, Romney in dead heat
Poll: Economic outlook dim, but improving
Poll reveals gap between married and single women
Read the complete polls (PDF)
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"The way I would put it is, the hopes of the 'green shoots' that were expressed in March, 2009 that then turned to brown later in that year, and again woke up earlier this year, have again been dashed. So that the administration's, and the Fed's, constant referral to the economy 'on the road to recovery' is another demonstration of their inability to make economic judgments. Just like the Fed totally misjudged the economy in the period leading up to the recession, totally -- even after the bubble broke, they said the crisis was contained. Once again the Fed has shown that its ability to make judgments about the economy leaves something to be desired."
President Obama has opened the first significant lead of the 2012 campaign in the nation's dozen top battleground states, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, boosted by a huge shift of women to his side.
The biggest change came among women under 50. In mid-February, just under half of those voters supported Obama. Now more than six in 10 do while Romney's support among them has dropped by 14 points, to 30%. The president leads him 2-1 in this group.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-04-01/swing-states-poll/53930684/1
All the hints that even though Obama neck and neck with Romney it is Romney expected to "fall away"!
Womens vote???
How about African Americans vote?
Last election Obama courted the black voter with his "Yes we Can" message!
Many African Americans are now, undoubtedly worse off than they were.
Perhaps they will by now have gotten wise to Obama and his unsubstantiated promises.
If that is true, then the smug assumptions of the media may well be exploded.
Seeing the number of "Kingly" measures Obama has backed, (tsars are
an example), it is clear his inexperience has cost the USA dear!
Why waste time bringing up the ridiculous ryan republican budget that failed last year by a vote of 40 in favor and 57 opposed, with even 5 republicans defecting, when it's even worse this year?
See for yourself without the fox/rush spin:
Senate votes down Paul Ryan budget plan, 57-40
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55721.html#ixzz1sVsEKjxY
This is why I think that there should be a requirement to pass the citizenship test before you are eligible to vote. Idiots like Smokey that have NO CLUE how their government works would NEVER be allowed to vote, ensuring a smarter and brighter government in Washington.
The same exact way we can continue to pay multi-national corporations millions in rebates on billions in U.S. profits, or give multi-millionaires mortgage deductions on 2nd, 3rd and 4th homes as well as allowing the wealthiest like willard romney to only pay 13% in income tax on $22 million in income!
Even President Obama paid over 20% in income tax on $700,000+ income, but willard only pays 13% on 1/30th the amount of income!
From all the (rich) groups throwing money at BOTH candidates, it is clear that MONEY will decide November, NOT voters!
Both parties rely more on contributions today than they ever did, with the result that those who represent the hard working middle,(not the welfare generation), citizens have virtually been ignored.
Perhaps if a miracle backlash began it could shake the vested interest complacency, but it had better begin now!!
"Bill Clinton, the only true conservative president since Ike, did it in five years."
Absolutely true, by raising taxes a few percentage points on the wealthiest Americans, and keeping the entire defense/national security spending below $300 Billion.
Now the wealthiest Americans like willard romney are paying a ridiculous income tax rate of a mere 13% while being in the 35% top marginal rate, many of our largest multi-national corporations are paying little or no taxes, and the bloated defense/national security spending has topped $1.3 Trillion per year!
This is an economic policy for morons wanting America to fail!
True.....and the lowering of the top marginal tax rate from 91% in 1963 to the present 35% where many use the 15% capital gains rate as their income tax rate, is far more of a reduction for the wealthiest Americans than any other reductions for any other Americans!
Returning to the 1990's tax rates as conservative republican economist, Bruce Bartlett has proposed, would not only return America to fiscal sanity, but would immediately lower our budget deficits considerably, and when coupled with spending cuts, put us back on the path towards a balanced budget far quicker than 'lyin' ryan's' fiscal insanity!
The problem is you have ideas but the dems and Obama. Do not their only plan is to tax the 1% 3% more!