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CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.
This poll was conducted by telephone from April 13-17, 2012, among 957 adults nationwide. 852 interviews were conducted with registered voters, including 268 with voters who said they plan to vote or already have voted in a Republican primary. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three points and six points for the sample of Republican primary voters. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Poll. © 2012 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Obama, Romney in dead heat, CBS News/New York Times poll finds
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Updated 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Mitt Romney has closed the gap with President Obama among registered voters, a CBS News/New York Times poll released Wednesday found, putting the former Massachusetts governor in a dead heat with the president for the White House.
Mr. Obama and Romney each received support from 46 percent of registered voters when asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. In March, a CBS News/New York Times survey found that Mr. Obama held a slight advantage over Romney of 47 percent to 44 percent.
The poll was conducted between last Friday and Tuesday, days after former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum suspended his campaign, effectively making Romney the presumptive nominee to take on the president in the fall. Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remain in the race but face Romney's all-but-insurmountable lead in delegates and fundraising ahead of the Republican convention this summer in Tampa, Fla.
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Gingrich was preferred among 20 percent of Republican primary voters; Paul received support from 12 percent. Nine percent picked "someone else." When asked if Santorum should have suspended his campaign, 63 percent of those polled said yes; 30 percent said no.
Still, many Republicans expressed lukewarm feelings toward Romney, with 40 percent of primary voters having reservations about him compared with 33 percent saying they supported him "enthusiastically." In January, the last time a CBS News/New York Times survey asked primary voters about Romney, 28 percent said they supported him enthusiastically and 38 percent had reservations.
Among Republicans with reservations of Romney are primary voters who identified themselves as white evangelicals, conservatives and supporters of the tea party movement. Half of white evangelicals told pollsters that they had reservations about Romney over the 27 percent who supported him enthusiastically. Romney received enthusiastic support from more than a third (36 percent) of conservatives and tea party backers; however, 41 percent have reservations about him.
Although evangelicals were some of Santorum's strongest supporters, 52 percent of those polled agreed that he did the right thing to bow out of the race.
UPDATE, 6:30 P.M. Eastern Time: More findings have now been released from the poll. Among them:
Obama leads among women, Romney among men: The president leads 49 percent to 43 percent among women, while Romney leads 49 percent to 43 percent among men. But there is an interesting split among women: Among married women - who represented 29 percent of registered voters in this poll - Romney has the edge, 49 percent to 42 percent. The president, meanwhile, dominates among single women, 62 percent to 34 percent.
More breakdown: The president leads by eight points among those under 45, while Romney leads by six among those older than 45. Mr. Obama leads by ten among those who make less than $50,000 per year, while Romney leads by six among those who make more than that amount. Mr. Obama leads by four among college graduates, while Romney leads by two (within the margin of error) among those with no degree. Nine in ten Democrats back the president, while nine in ten Republicans back Romney; independents are evenly split.
Lack of confidence in Obama: Nearly half of registered voters say they do not have confidence in the president to make decisions on the economy, which is overwhelmingly the most important issue for voters. Fifty-one percent are very or somewhat confident; 48 percent are not very or not at all confident. Romney has the confidence of 55 percent of registered voters for his economic decisions.
There is more confidence in Mr. Obama's abilities as commander-in-chief: 59 percent are confident that he can be an effective commander-in-chief, compared to 40 percent who do not. Fifty-six percent are confident in Romney as commander-in-chief, while 37 percent are not.
Underwater favorability: Neither candidate has a net positive favorable rating. Mr. Obama is viewed favorably by 42 percent of registered voters, while 45 percent view him unfavorably; 13 percent are undecided or haven't' heard enough. Romney is seen favorably by 29 percent and unfavorably by 34 percent; 37 percent did not weigh in either way.
Twenty-seven percent say Mr. Obama, who promised "change you can believe in," has made positive changes to the way things are done in Washington. Twenty percent say he has changed things for the worse, while 47 percent see no change. Thirty-two percent say a President Romney would make change for the better, seven percent say he would make change for the worse, and 47 percent say he wouldn't make a difference.
One warning sign for Romney: Just 34 percent say the wealthy former businessman is someone they can relate to, while 60 percent say they cannot relate to him. Mr. Obama's numbers are better: 47 percent say they can relate to him, while 50 percent say they cannot.
Romney is also seen as less than sincere: Sixty-two percent say he says what people want to hear, while just 27 percent say he says what he believes. By contrast, 51 percent say Mr. Obama says what people want to hear, while 46 percent say he says what he believes.
Mr. Obama's job approval rating has recovered from a dip last month, when it was 41 percent, and now stands at 48 percent. Forty-two percent disapprove. He is viewed particularly negatively when it comes to his handling of the housing market, where he has just 36 percent approval, and on gas prices, where he stands at just 24 percent.
Women's health: Women voters have more faith in the president than in Romney to make the right decisions on women's health issues. Sixty percent express confidence in Mr. Obama, compared to just 43 percent for Romney. Most women say the candidates' stance on women's health issues will be one of many important factors in their vote; 44 percent say they could not vote for a candidate with whom they disagree on women's health issues.
The 2010 health care law: The sweeping health care law now being considered by the Supreme Court continues to be viewed skeptically. Forty-seven percent disapprove of the law, while just 39 percent approve. The numbers have held relatively steady since 2010.
Thirty-nine percent say the law went too far in its attempts to reform the health care system, while 24 percent say it didn't go far enough. Another 24 percent say the law was about right. Republicans were more likely to say it went to far, while Democrats were more likely to say it didn't go far enough or was about right.
Just 23 percent say the Supreme Court, which is scheduled to rule on the law in June, should uphold it completely. Twenty-nine percent want the individual mandate to be overturned but the rest of the law kept in place; 37 percent want the entire law overturned.
More from the polls:
Five takeaways from the new CBS/NYT poll
Poll: Economic outlook dim, but improving
Poll reveals gap between married and single women
Read the complete polls (PDF)
This poll was conducted by telephone from April 13-17, 2012, among 957 adults nationwide. 852 interviews were conducted with registered voters, including 268 with voters who said they plan to vote or already have voted in a Republican primary. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three points and six points for the sample of Republican primary voters. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Poll.
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You can fool some of the people some of the time and Romney is a great speechifier but he won't fool me.
With 1% Romney, expect cuts in your Social Security checks and Medicare to pay for his tax-cuts for the rich.
As Governor, flip-flop Romney was for Romneycare and pro-choice. Now he is anti-health and anti all abortions. If President, what will he be for?
Windshield-wiper Romney will be for anything as long as he'll make money. Pro or anti-abortion, pro or anti-Health Plan. Typical opportunist-politician.
Thanks to the Bush's tax cuts for the rich, Romney's profited $100 extra billion. That's why he wants to extend them forever.
By Freedom for America, Romney means more freedom for his billionaire pals that they can make more money.
By Less Regulation, Romney means zero or less taxes for the rich 1%.
While Obama killed bin Laden, Romney cowardly said he wouldn't go after him.
Watch Romney go from liberal as governor to conservative in the primaries to centrist as candidate to whoknowswhat if President.
If president, Romney is going back to the plan than nearly destroyed the economy: Bushanomics.
I wouldn't buy a used car from Mr Romney.
Obama is bad for this country! He is bad for America. He and his team of corrupt politicians LIE to and STEAL from the American people.
It doesn't sound like you follow the news, Mike, but let me summarize some points you may not have been following:
- When he took office he grew government substantially. In fact, we now have Czar positions. (?!)
- He has spent this country broke and redistributed the wealth so much so that I will have to go back to work rather than raising my children (just to cover the bills) - that's right. My children (age 4 and 2) get to suffer at the hands of the Government.
- He told the Russian president that he "will have more flexibility after the election" because this will be his final term. America looks weak to all other nations. How can he not stand up with Israel?! They are our allies. The Muslims have waged a Holy War and will not rest until all non-Muslims are dead. Did you know that Iran is building a nuclear facility near their Holy Land? That's right... If they can figure out that magical combination and get a hold of the right materials, then we can all suffer at the hands of the few.
- Obama and Pelosi pushed for mandatory health care. This will destroy business in the U.S. Not to mention the fact that everything the government touches turns to crap. Our social security, education, prison, immigration, and banking/economic systems are broken (to name a few). Now, the government will have its hands in our healthcare. Just think... going to the doctor can now be like going to the DMV!
Our politicians no longer represent the people. Our Legislators need to be fired. No more pay for these posts! It should be a civil service to hold an esteemed position in government - not a popularity contest about who has the most money. If you do your research, then you will be devastated to learn how much power the Executive Branch has over our daily lives.
Our Legislators write over 80,000 pages of laws per year! They each have a staff of 18+ people. Do you really believe we need all these laws? Do you know what they are or the punishment if broken? Do we need a full-time Congress? Do you believe the government can spend your money better than you can? Wouldn't it be great if you could keep your money without the government taking their share first?
People, it's time to unite! It's time to be free! We have let the government rule our lives and make the decisions for us. Government doesn't make money. They only tax! We have social security taxes, DMV/car taxes, property taxes, income taxes, (payroll taxes for businesses), gas taxes, alcohol/cigarette taxes, and sales taxes to name a few...
Obama has caused division among ALL Americans. We need a President to unite Americans. We are in this together and I believe we won't be able to get out of this until we all pull together for a common cause - our freedom and the return of our civil liberties. May God bless America!
The U.S. will fall into further turmoil. If Obama wins, you can bet that I will be arming myself and preparing for the fall of America. It's really horrible too because I have two small children and I really wanted them to grow up in a free country where everyone has equal rights, equal taxes,
You don`t know???
The media are the reason the country is ill informed on all aspects of government.
Back at the time of Watergate, Journalists had INTEGRITY!!!
Ed Murrow even in the 1940s, had Integrity!
Todays media stars have the TelePrompter!
Whatever the Co.line is, they will parrot it!
If the media want to push their agenda, unfortunately it could be because the President ticks most of their liberal boxes.
He is liberal.(almost Socialist), he is a person of color,he can motivate the African American voting bloc, (Just as easily as he breaks the promises he made to `em in 08)!
He seems to like the high life, and he cannot make himself stand firm on the Constitution.
But the media do not mind, for he is a Good Story for Them!
Personally I reckon every voter should look at the USA, and see how much better they are now than in 08, whether they agree we have more freedoms or less, and whether they agree that a sitting President should either cosy up to the Unions or obey State Court summonses to appear before it, or seek to undermine the Constitution with "reluctantly" passing a measure allowing for the military arrest of ANY citizen without evidence or trial!
Those are the things that Pres Obama should be judged on.
Incidentally, Obama is the president with more Executive Orders than any other for some time. And we all know that the use of EOs circumvent the process of govt.
As you have described, Media are also underreporting on other candidates. Is that deliberate? On past records, I would say YES it is!
In November, you decide, me, I`ll stick to the Constitution and ignore the polls and the politics!
See, I believe in Liberty & Justice, and those beliefs are at risk, I believe, more today than they have ever been. I am Patriotic, and believe in working for what I have. The opposite is being pushed by pressure groups in this America supposed to be a Light to the World. There have been attempts by politicians to darken that light in recent years. I am sick of `em ALL!
NO, until you and the rest of the disgruntled republicans can repeal the 16th Amendment, all of what you earn is definitely NOT YOURS!
Good point.....or what he will do to Medicare, since he doesn't need either SS or Medicare to survive in his golden years, nor do his cronies!
The rich have the same basic costs for food and water as the poor. But the poor don't have all those millions to go on vacation and pay for health care, college for their kids etc.
That is why the rich should pay more than the rest of us and now THEY PAY LESS. We'll be fixing that though, trust me.
Socialism does not work because eventually you run out of other peoples money.