Will Supreme Court health care case boost the GOP, or Democrats?

Demonstrators for and against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act march and chant in outside the U.S. Supreme Court Building on March 26, 2012 in Washington, DC. Today the high court, which has set aside six hours over three days, will hear arguments over the constitutionality of the act.

/ Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

In an election year in which Republican voters seem less than enthused about their leaders, the GOP establishment would like nothing more than to reignite the Tea Party base that came out in force in 2010. This week's Supreme Court case reviewing President Obama's health care law could do the trick.

Alternatively, the GOP's renewed emphasis on health care could backfire, leaving Democrats motivated.

The court's rulings and the consequences are hard to know at this point. The one certainty is that the court's consideration of the case is putting Mr. Obama's controversial health care law back in the spotlight squarely in the middle of the 2012 presidential race -- a move sure to rekindle the partisan passion that in part drove Democratic voters in 2008 and Republican voters in 2010.

On Monday, the court begins three days of hearings on the law, starting with the question of whether now is even the appropriate time for the Supreme Court to take up the case.

The 1867 Anti-Injunction Act bars most lawsuits challenging a tax that hasn't been paid. The individual mandate, which requires all Americans to purchase insurance, doesn't kick in until 2014, meaning no one has paid the fine (or "tax," as some may call it) for failing to purchase insurance -- thus, as the argument goes, the current case may be invalid.

However, most parties watching the case, and even Mr. Obama's Justice Department, believe that the Anti-Injunction Act doesn't apply here. "It's pretty much a slam dunk they're going to hear the case," Robert Alt, senior legal fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, told Hotsheet.

Starting Tuesday, the Court gets to the real meat of the issue -- whether the so-called individual mandate is constitution

Doctors and medical students supporting the health care reform law signed by President Obama gather in front of the Supreme Court in Washington, Monday, March 26, 2012, as the court begins three days of arguments on health care.

/ AP Photo/Charles Dharapak

al. As many as 28 states have filed lawsuits calling the mandate unconstitutional, and one federal appellate court agreed with that assessment. Two other federal appellate courts have upheld the law.

The hearings strike at the heart of opposition to Mr. Obama's reforms: A Kaiser Family Foundation poll released earlier this month found that while every other major element of the health care law is supported by more than half of Americans, only one in three support the individual mandate, including only 45 percent of Democrats. The percentage of Americans who said they have a "very" unfavorable view of the mandate has reached 54 percent.

Joseph Antos of the conservative American Enterprise Institute said that many Americans may not fully understand the practical impacts of the provision (about 80 percent of Americans already have insurance and thus shouldn't be affected by the mandate). Politically, however, it gets to the heart of conservative fears about growing government interference.

"It's a debate between how much the government should be involved in personal decisions and what is a personal decision," Antos said.

Historic review of healthcare law at High Court
Poll: 47% disapprove of Obama health care law
CBSNews.com Health Care Special Report

In 2010, when the Tea Party helped sweep Republicans back into power in the House, 48 percent of voters said Congress should repeal the health care overhaul that the president had signed into law just months before. To this day, according to the Kaiser poll, the individual mandate has remained the most recognizable element of the law, even though Democrats have tried to promote the more popular parts, like the provision allowing children up to 26 years old to remain on their parents' health insurance plan.

Since 2010, the issue of health care has fallen by the wayside as voters turned their attention back to the economy. But if the court ruled in June to uphold the health care law, "maybe that excites the right and gives them even more energy to try to repeal it through the legislative process," said Doug Thornell, a Democratic strategist at SKDKnickerbocker who has worked for the campaign arms of Congress.

On the other hand, Thornell said, "If the Supreme Court were to strike it down, that could energize progressives."

Opinions over the health care reforms fall fairly strictly down partisan lines, meaning the court case could motivate one side's base or the other -- but polls suggests Republicans are more energized over health care. A new CBS News/ New York Times poll released on Monday morning shows that while just 28 percent of Democrats "strongly" approve of the health care law, a full 62 percent of Republicans "strongly" disapprove.

That could be key for Republicans, given how unenthused their base seems so far: A recent Gallup poll showed voters are less excited about the current GOP candidates than they were about their 2008 choices. On top of that, turnout in several of this year's primary elections has been down compared to Republican turnout in 2008 contests.

Last week, on the two-year anniversary of the health care overhaul's passage into law, Republicans launched a full-scale assault on the reforms, seeking to remind voters of what they don't like about the law. Republican presidential front-runner Mitt Romney was as vigorous in his attacks as any Republican, calling the reforms "an unfolding disaster."

Santorum: Romney "worst Republican" to face Obama
Plouffe: GOP will "regret" branding health care "Obamacare"

Still, even if the Supreme Court's decision this summer sparked new conservative outrage over health reform, it's questionable how far the GOP could take it. For one thing, a January CBS News/ New York Times poll showed that Americans still trust Mr. Obama over congressional Republicans on the issue of health care by a 9-point margin. Furthermore, arguments against the individual mandate will be blunted if Romney leads the GOP ticket, given his Massachusetts health care reforms inspired the federal law.

"If Republicans want to make this the centerpiece of their fall campaign, they're nominating absolutely the wrong person," Thornell, the Democratic strategist, said. "Romney is the godfather of the individual mandate. Him attacking it, is like McDonald's criticizing hamburgers. I don't care how he tries to explain away what he did in Massachusetts, he passed a bill with a mandate in it."

[MTATL67]

More and more are benefiting from the law. I'm going to vote for President Obama but I was very skeptical about this law. Until I read about the lady that sued because didn't want buy insurance. Mary Brown filed for bankruptcy and part of her bankruptcy is her medical bill. Now because this person chose not to have insurance the rest of us have to pay for her husband's medical bills.

[Lindag10]

Universal health care would benefit ALL Americans but of course that's too easy. Americans don't LIKE being told what to do, even if it's for their benefit, even if it's something as practical as a "seat belt" law which many have fought for years. The insurance companies have raped the people of America for too many years and they're just too stubborn to accept that fact and the Republicans feed their fears of "government control". The US is the ONLY industrialized country that DOESN'T provide universal health care. The cost in taxes would be less than what the insurance companies are charging people for coverage, but that doesn't compute. Sad.

[edduvals]

Universal Healthcare would not benefit ALL Americans. This is still insurance, you know what drives up the cost? People who have insurance and don't pay their deductibles. The healthcare law does not address this, it does not solve any problems, it just forces people to buy insurance. Insurance is nothing more than legalized gambling that only pays when you lose.

[hhandyman]

If your wealthy then you want the republicans to win if you are middle or lower classes and cant afford health insurance you need Obama to win or you need a good funeral insurance plan to cover expenses to be an honest non-bankrupt stiff

[zombielogic]

Who's voice is being heard in the Supreme Court today? I hope it's the voice of people like my friend David, a veteran who is directly affected by this debate http://www.zombielogicblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/bribes-in-america-webcomic-by-david.html

[vincea100]

This legislation MUST BE REPEALED! In 2010, Obamacare was the major issue in the elections and the Democrats were trounced at the polls. That fact is reflective of how unpopular the law is. 2 out of 3 Americans now oppose it!

As you know, it has also been brought back into the news of late as a result of its encroachment on the beliefs and teachings of the Catholic Church. Obama and the Democrats were somehow able to spin the entire story to be an attack on women by the Republicans with Sandra Fluke as the so called spokesperson for womens' rights to free contraception! What a farce! Sadly, many, many ignorant Americans are going to buy into what the liberal media is feeding them.

Far, far more troubling is the recent report from the General Accounting Office showing the initial $900 million cost for the legislation was severely miscalculated. It has been recalculated to be over $1.7 TRILLION!!!

Repeat: Obamacare will cost the US taxpayers OVER $1.7 TRILLION!!!

Now the Supreme Court will deliberate on the legality of Obamacare for the next several months. I can only pray to God the Court will make the right decision, the sensible decision for America and REPEAL OBAMACARE!

[retm-w]

So you're against people with pre existing comditions being able to purchase health insurance, Just another I got mine and the he!! with everybody else.

[askagain]

retm-w - A few laws could have eliminated pre-existing conditions, turning people down for health reasons, and making insurance portable from job to job. It would not require a complete overhaul. The motivations for Obamacare were far greater than a few tweaks to solve a few problems. And now we find out that Obamacare will cost much more than the deflated projections on which it was sold to us.

[wfw3536]

I am surprised that the press never covers the fact that during interview onABC TV he said the cost ofObamacare was not a tax. But, now the argument in the Supreme Court by the Obama administration is that the reason why they can force folks to pay for health care insurance is because it is a tax. Now I know President Obama would not lie, I guess this is what folks just call a flip flop. I guess it is alright that the media doesn't cover this as it is liberal and doesn't want to point out Obama's flips when it isn't politcally to his advantage.

[dzaffina]

lets see who should i beleive? looking at the pictures above, i see healcare professionals for, and i see koch funded americans for prosperity Tax Evading American Party members wrapped in the american flag against it. hmmmm

[tmn]

An EXCELLENT point! This does say a great deal.

[ConSense]

It says that if you show up wearing a lab coat, stupid people will assume you're a doctor. Since doctors are the ones that will be PAID, how much say should they have in who does the paying?

[SandmanUSMC]

Who cares who benefits from it? What's most important is that Americans must be educated on the true benefits of universal health care.

PLEASE SHARE THIS VIDEO WITH AS MANY PEOPLE AS POSSIBLE!!!

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/sickaroundtheworld/view/

[tmn]

The fact remains - every major industrialized nation has universal healthcare available to its citizens EXCEPT the US. We need to provide access as they do. It is time...and the Affordable Care and Patient Protection Act passed by Congress and signed by the President does just that.

[rightbehind]

Here we have the nut cases that think lining a health care insurance company ceo pocket is freedom. They're not smart enough to recognise a phony baloney market when they see it.

[dzaffina]

they should be out at the gas pumps screaming for higher gas prices. freemarket/what the market will bare. this is exactly what they wanted. so enjoy and stop complaining.

[Zann-Zel]

Him attacking it, is like McDonald's criticizing hamburgers. I don't care how he tries to explain away what he did in Massachusetts, he passed a bill with a mandate in it."
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LOL!

OBAMA 2012 : )