Long, tough delegate battle lies ahead for GOP candidates
Complete CBS News state-by-state GOP delegate estimates
Romney now has 396 delegates -- 748 away from the number needed to clinch. Rick Santorum is his closest challenger in the race for delegates with an estimated 146, with Newt Gingrich at 97 and Ron Paul at 38. In order to reach the required 1,144, Romney needs to win about half of the remaining delegates, while Santorum would need to win two-thirds of them.
Because the primary calendar is so spread out from here, it could take Mitt Romney a while to get to 1,144, even if he keeps winning delegates at a good pace. Due to most states allocating their delegates proportionally, this makes a quick wrap-up especially hard as well. Romney would have to do the near impossible and win every single pledged delegate from here on to get to 1,144 by mid-May. Since Rick Santorum is all but sure to get delegates too -- especially in the many states that look friendly to him -- this could be an even longer fight.
Starting with caucuses this Saturday in Kansas and U.S. territories, and going through April 3, there are 16 nominating contests. However, they offer only about half of the 748 delegates Romney would need to reach the magic number.
Also, only four of the remaining 35 contests allocate their delegates winner-take-all (all pledged delegates to the statewide winner) - which also makes it difficult for someone to deliver a knock-out blow. And these primaries are months apart. Two are held in April (Delaware and Washington, D.C.), and the other two (New Jersey and Utah) are in June. There are 123 delegates at stake in these states combined.
Next week, Mississippi and Alabama hold primaries which may be friendly territory for Santorum. White evangelicals made up seven in 10 Alabama Republican primary voters in 2008 - similar to the percentages in Tennessee and Oklahoma last Tuesday where Santorum was victorious. Eighty-four delegates are at stake in these two contests (Mississippi 37; Alabama 47), and while the statewide winner will get a greater share of the delegates, second and third-place finishers could also win some. Tennessee and Oklahoma had similar delegate allocation plans and Santorum came out ahead in delegates in these two states, but both Romney and Gingrich were also awarded delegates.
At left, CBS News political director John Dickerson discusses the delegate battle and the GOP campaign with the Huffington Post's Jon Ward, USA Today's Susan Page and the New York Times' Jeff Zeleny on Friday's episode of Hotsheet Live.
Later this month, the nomination battle heads to another midwestern state, Illinois, with 54 delegates at stake. Santorum is facing similar ballot issues there that he did in Ohio. His delegates are not on the ballot for congressional district (CD) delegate allocation in four districts, which makes him ineligible for 10 delegates.
On April 24, five states are holding primaries -- including the northeastern states of Connecticut, and New York. These states have more moderate Republican electorates and few evangelicals, perhaps giving Romney an advantage. There are about 200 delegates up for grabs on this date, with 92 from New York alone. Rick Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania also has a primary on April 24.
The month of May brings a mix of southern, western and midwestern states -- including North Carolina, Oregon, Indiana and Texas. With 155 delegates at stake, Texas' primary was originally scheduled to be on March 6th (Super Tuesday), but redistricting disputes pushed the primary back to April 3 and then again to its current date on May 29. Currently, Texas' delegate plan calls for all its delegates to be allocated proportionally statewide, not by congressional district. If all four candidates are still in the race at this point, each could receive a share of the state's delegates depending on the outcome.
On June 5, it's California, with 169 delegates up for grabs (the most of any state), along with four other states that include winner-take-all New Jersey with 50 delegates available. California plans to allocate its at-large delegates winner-take-all to the statewide winner, and then allocate its congressional delegates separately with a similar method. While not a truly winner take all state, a candidate with a decisive win here can come away the lion's share of the states delegates.
The final state of the primary season is Utah on June 26. Will it all come down to the Beehive State? With its significant Mormon population, Romney won the 2008 primary here with almost 90 percent of the vote.
Aside from all the pledged delegates remaining in the primaries and caucuses, there are about 120 Republican National Committee members who attend the national convention unpledged. CBS News has been interviewing these delegates to gauge their candidate support. So far, 15 back Romney, four support Santorum, and one is for Gingrich. Most have not committed to a candidate yet.
These unpledged delegates make up just 5 percent of the total 2286 (about 10 percent of the number needed to win), but they could play a pivotal role in a neck and neck battle for 1,144 the delegates.
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I urge all who want to see the Republican Party come out of its George Bush cocoon to vote for Ron Paul. Shake this election to its very core!
I remember in 2008 when many progressives in the US were talking about how America should follow the European socialist democrat model in the US. I don't hear a lot of that talk now. European style socialist democracy is exactly what President Obama meant by his "Hope and Change" rhetoric. He is a true believer in that crap. In his effort to force his vision of a huge centralized federal government control (exactly the style of European socialist democracies), he has almost drowned the United States in debt.
I was ticked at the fact that President Bush added $4.4 trillion to the national debt in 8 years, and I am totally disgusted that President Obama added the same $4.4 trillion to the debt in less than 3 years. If we don't want to suffer the same fate as Greece, we must remove progressives from controlling Washington DC. I am not saying that all of them are bad people, it just that their impractical ideology is bad for the United States. We have to reduce the scope and size of the federal government to a level that the American people can afford.
President Obama is also consumed with an impractical obsession with "green energy", to the point that he is willing to hurt poor and middle income Americans in the process of ditching fossil fuel energy. I'm all for alternative energy that is cheap and meets the needs of the American economy and people, but alternative energy is not mature enough to do this. We can not afford to ditch oil prior to having alternatives that can economically meet the energy needs of the United States. That would be naive and disastrous. Yet, that is exactly what President Obama's administration wants to do.
"Politico: By ALEX GUILLEN | 2/28/12 6:37 PM EST
The Energy Department isn't working to lower gasoline prices directly, Secretary Steven Chu said Tuesday after a Republican lawmaker scolded him for his now-infamous 2008 comment that gas prices in the U.S. should be as high as in Europe.
Instead, DOE is working to promote alternatives such as biofuels and electric vehicles, Chu told House appropriators during a hearing on DOE's budget."
In an interview Barrack Obama did with the San Francisco Chronicle editorial board very early in the presidential campaign, January 2008 - he said the following:
"Under my plan of a cap-and-trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket. Coal-powered plants, you know, natural gas, you name it, whatever the plants were, whatever the industry was, they would have to retrofit their operations. That will cost money. They will pass that money on to consumers."
My "Hope" is that we can "Change" the direction of Washington in this 2012 election
On top of that this president was handed the worst economy that any American President have been given since the great depression.
In addition, republicans outsourced all our manufacturing and millions of non manufacturing jobs overseas with your deregulation and tax brakes that favour corperations shipping our jobs overseas.
America cannot afford a republican president. If electing a republican is changing Washington, then it is obvious that you have a colony to colonize in outter space.
This is because they are all useless from Mitt to Newt to Rick to Ron. Not one of them is worth voting for they are truly cluesless.
Mitt: I am a job creator yet I laid off people->What happened to those you laid off "Don't know does he".
Newt: I only lie to benefit myself plus I only cheated on my wife when I was after a better looking one while attacking the President. "Can you say hypocrite".
Paul: I live in the past during the stone age and don't want anything to do with anyone. "Anybody for living in caves".
And last but not least,
Rick: I will turn this country around by giving you freedom unless you want to sleep with someone I don't approve of or you want to be friends with someone I don't approve of. "Can you say American Taliban".
Like I said nothing to vote for here!
All Romney has to offer is his negative ads against Gingrich and Santorum.. People are as excited about Romney as they were with McCain.. Do we really want to go through that again?
Santorum.. What has he ever really done except occupy a seat in Congress? In regards to the debates Santorum has been mediocre at best. I just do not see him doing well against Obama if he is the nominee. I know Gingrich will win the debates. He has complete understanding and command of the issues.
Gingrich as Speaker of the House: Federal balanced budgets with surpluses.. Welfare reform.. Millions of new jobs.. That sounds like progress to me and that is what this country needs right now! Newt Gingrich has been fighting for conservative values for years and winning! Vote Gingrich!