Super Tuesday: High stakes for GOP hopefuls
CBS/AP
All ten states holding contests Tuesday are awarding delegates proportionately - allocating them based on the outcome in congressional districts, a candidate's percentage of the statewide vote, or a combination of the two (as in the case of Ohio). The lack of "winner take all" contests makes it almost impossible for the remaining GOP presidential hopefuls to accrue enough of the 419 delegates at stake Tuesday to create an aura of true inevitability around their candidacy.
Still, it's likely that Mitt Romney will emerge from Super Tuesday with momentum. There are four states where he is almost sure to claim victory: Massachusetts, Vermont, Idaho and Virginia. Romney has a home state advantage in Massachusetts, where he served as governor, and his style and background make him a natural fit in the Bay State as well as in neighboring Vermont. A combined 55 delegates are up for grabs in the two states, and Romney is expected to claim most of them.
Idaho has the highest concentration of Mormons of any state outside of Utah, and they are expected to put Romney over the top in the state's caucuses. Virginia, meanwhile, would likely have been a hard-fought state had Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum managed to get on the ballot; because they did not, the state has been left to Romney and Ron Paul, with polls suggesting Romney will win the vast majority of the state's 46 delegates.
Romney will also win delegates in the swing state of Ohio, which is holding the most closely-watched of Tuesday's contests. Polls showed Romney and Santorum in a close race for the state going into Election Day, and whoever wins will be able to claim significant momentum. For Romney, a victory would help put to rest doubts that he can win over the working-class, Midwestern voters he would need to attract in a potential general election campaign; for Santorum, a win boost his argument that he could win in November and reinforce the notion that he is the only viable conservative alternative to Romney in the race.
Even if he wins the state, however, Santorum is unlikely to take the majority of its delegates. That's because Santorum, who long ran a shoestring campaign lacking the organizational and financial resources of his rivals, did not do the necessary legwork to be eligible for more than one quarter of the state's 66 total delegates up for grabs. The Romney campaign has pointed to that fact (and to Santorum's failure to get on the Virginia ballot) to argue that Santorum lacks the organizational chops to compete with President Obama; if Santorum wins the state, expect the Romney camp to point to the delegate situation to counter Santorum's claim of renewed momentum.
Also on the calendar Tuesday is a trio of Southern states: Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma. Georgia is the state Gingrich represented in Congress, and polls show him with a strong lead there; the state offers 76 delegates, more than any other Super Tuesday contest. Gingrich is also making a play in Tennessee, campaigning and running ads in the state in the wake of a new poll that showed him in a three-way tie - though another new survey showed Gingrich down 15 points to Santorum in the state.
Gingrich's strategy for a comeback is to win Georgia, possibly take Tennessee and then build on his southern state momentum to score wins next week in Mississippi and Alabama. But it's a tall order. Unless Gingrich can pull out Tennessee, it will be hard for him to keep making the case that he belongs in the race - particularly with Santorum making the point that if conservatives could finally unite around a single candidate, that candidate would have a good chance to beat Romney. Of course, Gingrich could still defy the calls to exit the race if things don't go well Tuesday - particularly if Las Vegas casino mogul Sheldon Adelson keeps pouring millions of dollars into the super PAC backing his campaign.
Polls show Santorum the strong favorite to win Oklahoma and a good chunk of its 43 delegates, though Romney has a tiny chance to score an upset victory. Tennessee, meanwhile, could go either way: Polls show Romney surging to within striking distance of Santorum there, and Romney could end up with a plurality of the state's 58 delegates. A victory for Romney in Tennessee would go a long way toward counteracting the conventional wisdom that the Ivy League-educated governor of a Northeast state cannot win over Southern voters.
If Romney can win both Tennessee and Ohio - and avoid any upsets - he'll have a strong argument that he is a viable national candidate, and a GOP establishment fearful of the negative impact of a long primary fight will likely follow House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's lead and line up behind him. If Santorum wins the two states, meanwhile, it will likely extend the race and renew talk of a contested nominating convention in Tampa in late August.
There are two other states holding contests on Tuesday, both caucuses: North Dakota, where 28 delegates are at stake, and Alaska, where 24 delegates are up for grabs. Paul has been focused on both states (along with the third caucus state, Idaho) as part of his strategy to build up delegates by focusing on low-turnout caucus contests, where Paul's passionate supporters can have the most impact. North Dakota and Alaska offer Paul's best chance to finally win a state, though there has not been polling in either state.
Entering Super Tuesday, CBS News estimates that Romney leads the pack with 187 delegates, with Santorum in second with 65 delegates; Gingrich follows with 30, and Paul with 20. Even if Romney wins a majority of the 419 delegates available on Tuesday - which is well within the realm of possibility - he will not approach the 1,144 delegates needed to claim the nomination.
Still, he could certainly emerge from Super Tuesday with an aura of inevitability that has thus far eluded him. The latest Gallup tracking poll shows Romney leading Santorum by 16 percentage points nationwide; if Santorum fails to generate positive headlines on Tuesday, it's hard to see how he closes that gap, though Gingrich leaving the race would certainly help. Indeed, Romney would love to see Gingrich best Santorum in Tennessee, providing a justification for the former House speaker to stay in the race.
No matter what happens, it's important to remember that Romney has a major advantage over his rivals: A financial edge that has allowed the candidate and the super PAC backing him to significantly outspend them in advertising. He also has better organization than any of the other candidates and more support from the party establishment. A big night for Santorum would give him a boost in donations, but it won't change that disparity. What it would do is throw a race that seems to be breaking for Romney back into chaos - and keep establishment Republicans fretting that the longer the primary fight goes, the longer their odds get for winning in November.
Below, Mr. Obama's Super Tuesday advice to Romney:
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http://rockthecashbox.com/2012/03/06/super-tuesday-glitter-bomb
What have Romney and Santorum ever really done..? Not much!
Vote for Newt Gingrich on Super Tuesday!!
This brings to mind a thought I had yesterday. I see Republicans throwing around the term entitlement frequently when referring to liberals. I see liberals like the young Ms. Fluke passionate about her feelings that birth control should be covered by health care insurance. I can't help but wonder if many like Ms. Fluke simply have yet to realize a fact of life: "there's no such thing as a free lunch". If insurance covers birth control, those costs will be made up somewhere along the line. I remember being young and idealistic once, a long time ago.
Pulling this back around to "entitlements" I'd like to know why it is the rich think they're entitled to a lower tax rate than those who earn less money than they do. People in the middle income class actually work for their money whereas the rich's money works for them. They cry out against entitlement programs yet are benefiting from one of the biggest entitlement programs in this country.
Entitlement programs are gimme programs, but Liberals (in order to protect their interests) have bashed earn programs (like Social Security) with welfare. Kind of a nice trick, especially since Social Security is taxable and Welfare isn't...
Also, lumping Rich into one catagory would be like generalizing that all black people eat watermelon or all gay men talk with a femamine tone. There are 2 essential groups, those born with it and those not born with it... Those born with it can be divided further, those that understand the responsibility they have and others that think they are exempt.
The latter is the group Liberal point to. There are many people with wealth, that give more than the average, as percentage. But just because there are a few, people think all well off are arrogant, money hungry, power houses.
Example, Bill Gates, one of the wealthiest American men. Former head of a Major Corporation also has the single most individual charity organization, funded from the earnings of Mr. Bill Gates.
Now people complaint about Corporations, but unless you weren't paying attention, President Obama just sent a Tax overhaul to Congress... in it, lower tax rates for Domestic Corporations!! Why? Simply put, those really making heavy profits are not Domestic and are not subject to the same tax inclusion.
A quick study of the cause and affects of prior activity proves it is NOT in the best interest of the Middle Class to squeeze the rich... why? Because SH*T rolls down hill. They are going to make their profit margins.
Just look at the recent Insurance Overhaul bill. Anyone with Private Health Insurance has been well informed of the cost of Politics. The average Insurance Premium increased $100 per month. Usually half paid by employer.
Worst of all, individuals who are 19, living on their own are about to get a HUGE suprize, in the form of an IRS payment for the lack of Insurance. It will be assessed once the arbitrary debating stops and it will be pro-rated, with interests... Because the Treasury Dept (Cabinet of the President) deems it so and Congress approved.
Everytime in history, when they squeezed the rich, the middle class paid. How many more people do you wish to see on Welfare and/or Unemployment?
They do not even pretend to care about anyone else except the Top 1%. I just don't see who would support people to run the government who have no clue how to govern.
"You can't vote for someone for one issue (ending overseas military). Paul is a racist, homophobe, typical anti woman 1 week Republicon and would gut Medicare, Social Security and environmental regs. Are we freakin' nuts or what?"
Hey noloyalisti, lets see some evidence that backs those statements.
Iowa: First they say Romney won and picked up momentum only to find out Santorum really won.
Maine: Not every caucus was even counted and Romney won by 200 votes. Hmmmm
Washington: Where they LOCKED out 1500 people for the straw poll. Where Ron Paul and Santorum were only separated by a few hundred votes.
Virgina: Where only Romney and Ron Paul are on the ballot. There is 46 delegates at stake. And Virgina some how managed to take of two people from their own party off the ballot.
This is the most chaotic election cycle I have seen in my life time. It isn't a good thing, because many voters don't even get a chance to choose. Corporations and the rich do.
My point is think how much money corporations and the rich have given to Romney? Money does not come free. Think now on what they will ask in return if Romney wins the presidency.
USE YOUR BRAIN people. If Romney wins he will sell our country to corporations.
You call it "class warefare" I call the truth.
Virgina doesn't even really count