Poll: Rick Santorum takes slight lead in GOP race

Rick Santorum answers questions at a news conference at the statehouse, Feb. 13, 2012, in Olympia, Wash.

/ AP Photo/Elaine Thompson

Updated 9:45 a.m. ET

CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

Rick Santorum has pulled slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in Republican primary voters' preference for the presidential nomination, a national CBS News/New York Times Poll shows.

Santorum has the support of 30 percent of GOP primary voters in the poll, following by Romney at 27 percent. Ron Paul is now in third at 12 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich at 10 percent.

Just three points over Romney, Santorum's lead in the national survey is within the poll's margin of error.

Rick Santorum: No longer such a long-shot
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The socially conservative former Pennsylvania senator received the backing of just 16 percent of Republican primary voters in a similarly worded question last month, leaving him in third place behind Gingrich.

Romney, who won the Maine caucuses on Saturday, has held fairly steady since January, while Gingrich's support has fallen by 11 points.

In the poll, Santorum receives strong backing from conservatives, tea party supporters and white evangelicals.

Self-identified conservatives divided their support among the candidates in January, but in this poll they appear to be coalescing solidly behind Santorum. He receives far more support from this group than Romney does, and conservative support for Santorum has increased since last month. (see the chart at left)

Support for Gingrich among conservatives is now half of what it was in January, just before his victory in the South Carolina primary.

Santorum also leads the Republican field among tea party supporters, who make up more than four in 10 Republican primary voters, as well as evangelical Christians. Evangelicals were key to Santorum's narrow win in Iowa last month.

In January's national poll, tea party supporters divided their support between Romney (with 29 percent) and Gingrich (28 percent), while Santorum trailed with just 18 percent. Now, 36 percent of Tea Party supporters back Santorum, and 24 percent back Romney.  In the January poll, 23 percent of white evangelicals backed Santorum. That support has now jumped to 39 percent.

Still, 60 percent of Republican primary voters nationwide say they could still change their minds about whom to support - so the race remains fluid.

Read the complete poll (PDF)

Below, CBS News chief Washington correspondent Bob Schieffer talks to Charlie Rose and Erica Hill on CBS This Morning about the new poll.

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This poll was conducted by telephone from February 8-13, 2012 among 1,197 adults nationwide. 1,064 interviews were conducted with registered voters and 331 with voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three points and five points for the sample of Republican primary voters. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

[fantomas4]

Santorum pulls ahead just to be beaten by Obama. The race for second place is on, Republican candidates! Start your engines.

[occupy_cbs]

Smokey75: "It is funny! If we could see the taxes of the people crying someone else needs to pay more or their fair share......So please keep lecturing us about our Fair Share"



YOU completely miss the point that the VAST MAJORITY of Americans -- a FULL TWO-THIRDS and even 51% of republicans -- completely DISAGREE with your MINORITY view, and want millionaires/billionaires to start paying their FAIR SHARE of taxes!

Give it up.......you've lost this 2012 campaign issue completely!

[AOCGUY]

occupy, while I do believe that the wealthy should probably pay more (or maybe the rest just need to pay less) I'm certainly not comfortable with the phrase"Fair Share" as it as been used with regards to taxes.

Although probably not the best analogy I will use the example of three friends going out to dinner together. One is wealthy the other middle class and the third poor. Would it be fair for the wealthy friend to pay more for his meal than his friends?

[kevin_hunt]

"Well, yeah, I admitted you know, back when I was running for the Senate, that when I was in college that I smoked pot and that was something that I did when I was in college." August 31, 2011, Santorum appearing on "Piers Morgan Tonight"

[noloyalisti]

Can you just imagine how clueless these Republicons are to not realize they are laughing stock. They are certifiable, still trying to double down on their awful failed policies of the last 33 years since Reagan.

They must be clueless because if they actually knew how bad they were, they couldn't live with themselves.

[JV1970]

You're the one that's clueless! You're clueless about us! You don't know us at all! We know we're laughing stocks and WE DON'T CARE! We like ourselves and we CAN AND ARE living with ourselves! We're proud of who we are!

[sped6348]

If you want Obama to have a second term, keep piling up votes for Santorum. Even though Romney keeps pulling away from us, most of us Invedendents will still vote for him - but never for Santorum. I guess you could say the Ultra-Rich, Ultra-Rightwing, Ultra-Evangelical Republican Base is doing all they can to assure Obama of a second term.

[tmn]

Let's hope santorum is the GOP candidate. The Right wants him for the GOP nomination...and so does the Left!!

[journe4us]

No, don't want Santorum as my President. HE is a whiny guy that had some deep sadness and wants to tell everyone about it and how great he/wife suffered...BUT...he hates Gays, believe ONLY marriage woman/man, obviously dislike public education as his children Home Schooled. In fact he home schooled them in family home in Va., while receiving money for it from Penn.!!! Bad boy!
Got caught, lost reelection by 18%. Voted for raising debt limit 6 times, voted for many silly stupid Porks for various states on his campaign list. Held breakfasts weekly for lobbyist for donating to his Action Committee. I think he is just another Big Gov't. man,
that wants any and all social issues his way but no ideas on running the country yet! Sick of Tea Partiers & Born Again Evangelicals running the darn Campaigns. I am a Republican, but if I am NOT smart enough to figure out my own social issues, I sure am not smart enough to vote for my whole Country am I??? Santorum will not make it against Obama.

[P0STING_AWAY]

by Mortarman291SG February 14, 2012 5:46 PM EST
What does the Bible say, Zann??
=============================================
Your bible is a collection of poorly written fables
composed by MEN 100+ years after the alleged death of some
character named "Jesus". It is not worth the paper it
is written on.

[1pheasant1]

Probably the same thrill you hate-mongering Christian bigots get from imposing your beliefs on all others.

[jeroneanderson]

It seems that technically Santorum is tied with Mitt rather than ahead of him given that they are both within the margin of error.

[noloyalisti]

Sanitorium is laying on top but Robmee is hoping to penetrate his lead.

[Lindag10]

Nice one. Bring on the "Sanitorum", Rick and you'll enjoy it. LOL.

[noloyalisti]

Sanitorium is on top of Robmee and Gingrinch has pulled out.

[kevin_hunt]

It took me a second to realize that wasn't a typo. Nice one :-)

[Zann-Zel]

LOL!