CPAC: Will Sarah Palin spring a surprise?
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This article originally appeared on RealClearPolitics.
At last year's CPAC gathering, the mere sight of a Sarah Palin impersonator was enough to throw some attendees into a star-struck frenzy.
Such was Palin's clout among conservative activists in February 2011, just a few months after she played a critical role in the 2010 midterms and when she was stoking speculation about her own presidential ambitions.
This year, CPAC attendees won't have to settle on a doppelganger, as the former Alaska governor is slated to deliver the event's keynote address on Saturday.
But, with the Michigan and Arizona primaries looming at the end of the month and Super Tuesday following them in early March, how much impact will her words have on race?
With Palin having receded from the headlines -- and her influence having waned within the Republican Party -- the reception her speech receives will be a test of how much sway she retains in the grass-roots movement she personified not so long ago.
Though the "rogue" politician is always liable to spring a surprise, a source inside Palin's orbit said she would not endorse a presidential candidate in her speech but would instead aim to unify the conservative movement.
Despite her lower profile in recent months, Palin has left a mark on this presidential cycle through her frequent TV appearances on the Fox News Channel, which she conducts from a home studio in Alaska.
But Palin's CPAC address will be her first public foray outside her home state since she delivered an early November speech in Orlando to the Republican Party of Florida.
Though she has stopped short of endorsing him outright, Palin has been acting as a quasi-surrogate for Newt Gingrich of late and urged Republican voters before the South Carolina and Florida primaries to cast their votes for the former House speaker.
But she has also said positive things about Rick Santorum, and the former Pennsylvania senator's three victories on Tuesday could complicate her advocacy of Gingrich.
Palin's husband, Todd, who endorsed Gingrich last month, is not expected to travel with her to Washington, since he is training for the annual Iron Dog snowmobile race in Alaska, which begins in nine days.
Though she has gone out of her way to praise Gingrich and Santorum, Palin has increasingly raised doubts about Mitt Romney and pushed back against perceptions that the national GOP front-runner is the party's inevitable nominee.
"That glowing enthusiasm isn't there yet," Palin told Greta Van Susteren earlier this week. "I believe a lot of that is in part the idea that it's a forgone conclusion that Mitt Romney will be the GOP pick. He certainly has the establishment support and much of the media support. I also believe that he is the one that President Obama would love to debate and to run against in November."
If Palin criticizes Romney even more overtly in her CPAC speech, it could heighten the difficulties the former Massachusetts governor already faces in winning over enough grass-roots conservatives to seal the nomination soon.
No matter how much her influence may have waned, Palin's presence figures to be the talk of the conference on Saturday.
And though there was little pronounced enthusiasm for her impending speech as CPAC opened Thursday, many of the former vice presidential nominee's most ardent supporters plan to descend on the event this weekend -- a presence that surely will bolster the energy level.
Michelle McCormick -- who temporarily moved to Iowa from her native Texas to help organize for a Palin presidential campaign that never occurred -- will be among those arriving in Washington on Friday.
McCormick said that she would love to see Palin become more active in the presidential race but understood if the former governor wanted to spend time with her family instead and stay outside the ring.
"I know a lot of people out there think her star has completely faded, and realistically it's probably been knocked down a little bit, but I think everyone's going to be interested to hear what she has to say," McCormick said. "To be honest with you, there's no one out there who's saying anything that fits the mood of the Republican electorate right now, and even though she's not running, she might be able to at least drive the conversation like she was able to do with crony capitalism."
Indeed, the anti-crony capitalism screed that Palin unveiled in a Labor Day weekend speech in Iowa became a frequently repeated mantra among almost all of the GOP presidential candidates.
Though she is sure to unleash some of her famously fiery rhetoric on the CPAC crowd, those eager for her to get behind a particular candidate could come away disappointed.
Palin's speech is more likely to be an indicator of whether she intends to increase her presence in the race going forward.
"Gov. Palin's been very adamant: The process should continue, we need more vetting, and it only helps the further we go into the process," said Steve Bannon, the filmmaker behind the pro-Palin documentary, "The Undefeated." "If you go back and look at what she said and when she said it and how she said it, she's been once again very good at foretelling how this thing has developed."
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The GOP prez field is still ridiculous, but it's lost a lot of its unintentional humor with the departure of Perry, Cain, Bachmann, et al.
Sarah, for all of her 'mean girl' snarkiness, is absolutely hilarious.
This is what would make America great for people like him, and he should forget about pandering to liberals. He needs to stop pretending and just come out and give the GOP what they want!
And whatever does she bring to ANY debate?
Conservatives will NOT fall in line behind any project or idea she brings forward due to their own perceptions of her pre-marraige relationship with a professional basketball player, Rice.
So, even if she had some kind of real idea..maybe two...Sarah can't survive the political racial bias and vindictiveness of Republican conservatives. Michael Steele and Herman Caine, aside, Colin Powell is the ONLY Republican of any standing and merit that could save the Republican Party from marginalizing itself. and Mr. Powell.....is not coming !!
OBAMA for a SECOND TERM !!!
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Reply to this comment .by JV1970 February 11, 2012 3:17 AM EST
mjlewis6 I don't understand why you think there would be any political racial bias toward Palin because she's white unless you're referring to the fact that her husband is half Eskimo. He has a Eskimo mother and a white, caucasian father. However, I don't think that will be an issue because clearly Todd shows no Eskimo physical characteristics.
Palin herself is caucasian and both of her parents are caucasian. Also there is no one on earth who has survived more vindictiveness for the last several years than Palin! NO ONE! From the minute John McCain announced her as his running mate she's been under attack from every side including from both Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, and she's taken every bit of it!
I think IF she springs a surprise on us and gets into the GOP race, she knows what to expect. She knows she'll be attacked from every side and every secret that she may be keeping and every skeleton in her closet, and in Todd's and her entire family's, will be brought to light. She knows that and she knows things will get ugly and it will be hard on her family. She's not as naive about the presidential race as she was in 2008.
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.by MekhongKurt February 11, 2012 9:53 PM EST
JV, you just don't get it. mj didn't say there's bias against Palin because she's white, but because she crossed (allegedly) the color line to have an affair with a Black.
And mj's right.
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.by JV1970 February 12, 2012 4:00 AM EST
MekhongKurt You used the right word! Alledgedly! Nothing has been proven about that and, as you know, people have been circulating rumors and even outright lies about her since McCain announced her as his running mate. Most of it is without base and can't be proven.
.
Now I'm beginning to wonder if they aren't punting again because they know they can't fix it.