South Carolina primary: What to watch as the votes come in

Republican presidential candidates, Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul, during the Republican presidential candidate debate at the North Charleston Coliseum in Charleston, S.C., Jan. 19, 2012.

/ AP Photo/David Goldman

Since the 1980's the South Carolina Primary has sought to be the first voice of southern Republicans - even scheduling itself on Saturdays to help do that - and has always played a crucial role in GOP nomination contests. With the pre-election polls now tightened between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, it could be pivotal again. Here are some things to watch as the votes start rolling in.

The voters:

This primary contest boasts has a number of important groups to watch and they include:

Tea Party voters: So far in this primary season, Tea Party backers have given enough of their support to Romney to keep him in the top tier; in fact in New Hampshire he got very strong backing from them. But South Carolina has been a hotbed of Tea Party activism in the last couple of years - will they go for Romney the same way? In pre-election polls, Tea Party backers in South Carolina tilted toward Gingrich over Romney. They could be decisive Saturday.

Republicans: It might sound odd to write that, but the point is that the party's base - people who consider themselves partisans - is likely to play a much bigger role in South Carolina than it did ten days ago in New Hampshire. Although anyone can vote in the South Carolina primary (and there is no formal party registration), self-described independents usually don't choose to participate at the same rate that independents do in New Hampshire. Only one in five voters in 2008's primary were independents - whereas in New Hampshire ten days ago, almost half the electorate was. In short, the winner Saturday will likely need to win the base.

Evangelical voters and social conservatives: After spending and debt issues dominated the last cycle, there has been a lot of talk now centering on values issues, too. Rick Santorum is vying for the votes of social conservatives and they could be crucial to his fortunes as they were in Iowa. In 2008, half the South Carolina electorate were evangelicals.

As S.C. votes, can Romney keep Gingrich at bay?
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The regions:

We've seen different voting patterns by region in South Carolina, so watching where the votes are coming from is critical.

The coastal regions of the state, from Hilton Head and up to Charlston, backed John McCain in '08, and this could be territory - with its retirees, higher-income voters, veterans, and part of an area that has been fast-growing - that Romney may need to win now. McCain doubled up on Huckabee here, giving him the edge statewide.

Keep an eye on the Piedmont region, a vote-rich, deeply conservative northwest corner of the state. The counties surrounding Greenville and Spartanburg typically account for about 3 in 10 votes statewide, but in a high-turnout GOP primary, could turn out in force and can cast four in ten of the ballots. To win in South Carolina you have to at least do well here. Huckabee beat McCain by 6 points in this region. Meanwhile, as he was running fourth in the primary, Romney in 2008 had one of his relatively best showings in Greenville. This may be where Gingrich and Santorum will want to make inroads. (But whether or not they split any anti-Romney vote, or one of them gets the lion's share of it, could determine the outcome, too.)

To show where the vote comes from, this map illustrates the counties by the size of their voting population, not their geographical size. You see the population centers along the coast, up around Greenville and Spartanburg, and the smaller rural counties around the outskirts of Columbia.

Rural counties are important too, in the aggregate. In 2008, they were not friendly to Romney; his relatively worst performances were in the counties ringing Greenville, the rural counties along the North Carolina border, and the rural counties between Columbia and Myrtle Beach.

Full coverage: Campaign 2012

[kmindeye]

It ceases to amaze me why the American people continue to vote for candidates that are mostly supported by big banks, and corporations. They will leave us all and go to other foreign lands, after they have striped us bare of everything of value. They continue to vote for the most articulate speaker, and not the one most qualified, or the one who has there interest at heart. I do not know whether to laugh or cry. I guess when they find there familiy out on the street, and begging for the basic neccasties in life, they will remember the beautiful words of there candidate on how he, or she wanted to make America so great, and a shining light on the hill.

[prohb]

Wasn't 'Willard' the name of that guy in the movie who controlled an army of crazy evil rats. Ya know, he kinda looked like Romney too. Now I know why Rommney changed his name! It woudn't have been good for his image!

[justsane-2009]

i'm fascinated by the fact that cbs has already called this for newt, even though romney is ahead by 8 points in the votes that have already been counted...?

[DawnBabcockPapple]

"by richardbl-2009 January 21, 2012 5:44 PM EST
Sorry bud, but the GOP establishment is going to make certain Paul doesn't make it out of the primary."

Apparently this reporter is intent on it too... not a single mention of him in the body of the article. Nice reporting. Hahahahahha!

[prohb]

Well, we have the Final Four of the Republicans in South Carolina.........which are to varying degrees: Flip-Floppers, Fakes, Freaks, and Fanatics.

Wadachoice......

[prohb]

Time to leave, Mortar, time to leave. Hey, how about Greece??? LOL

[richardbl-2009]

1) A Gingrich nomination would guarantee the GOP doesn't reclaim the Senate.
2) A Romney nomination would guarantee the GOP doesn't reclaim the White-house.

It's a tough call, really.

[raymondafoss]

http://raymondafoss.blogspot.com/2012/01/america-rick-santorum-robbed-by-iowa.html

[richardbl-2009]

1) A Gingrich nomination would guarantee the GOP doesn't reclaim the Senate.
2) A Romney nomination would guarantee the GOP doesn't reclaim the White-house.

It's a tough call, really.

[askagain]

There is no way of knowing which candidate is more or less capable of reclaiming either the senate or the presidency. At this point, it is nothing more than a crap shoot. To xclaim otherwise is silly.

[askagain]

correction

There is no way of knowing which candidate is more or less capable of reclaiming either the senate or the presidency. At this point, it is nothing more than a crap shoot. To claim otherwise is silly.

[MsmCorrupt]

Obama or Mitt??? What's the difference?
Both support NDAA, Both support Romney-Obama care. Both get donations from Goldman sachs.
RON PAUL 2012

[JGRonPaul2012]

haha no way Obama wins. Polls show Ron Paul and Romney can beat Obama. Since Romney is the White Obama .. We need Ron Paul to fix this country. Unfortunately the average voter is a moron who votes for whoever the media tells them to vote for.. Just like with Obama in 08 when they told us he was the second coming of Jesus when in fact he was the second coming of George Bush- more wars, death, & unemployment wasnt "change" it was the same old puppet game. Ron Paul challenges the status quo they are scared of him.. Lets hope people get sick of high gas prices, no jobs, constant wars and poverty and vote for Ron Paul.. the only candidate talking about the real issues. Another thing, the Tea Party was started by Ron Paul for this article to say they vote for Romney or Gingrich is a joke. The Real Tea party was hijacked by the mainstream and taken over.. any true tea party member will vote for the man who started it. RON PAUL

[baileyccc]

Your blinders are working perfectly.

[richardbl-2009]

Sorry bud, but the GOP establishment is going to make certain Paul doesn't make it out of the primary.