Poll: Obama ties Romney in head-to-head match up

CBS

CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

With less than 10 months to go before the presidential election, President Obama and front-runner Mitt Romney are in a dead heat in the latest CBS News/ New York Times poll.

If the November presidential election were held today, 45 percent of registered voters say they would support Mr. Obama, while 45 percent would vote for the former Massachusetts governor, according to the poll, conducted January 12-17.

CBS

Mr. Obama leads all his other possible Republican rivals. Texas Rep. Ron Paul comes closest, trailing the president by four points, 46 percent to 42 percent - that's outside of the poll's estimated 3-point margin of error.

Mr. Obama has an 11-point advantage over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (50 percent to 39 percent), as well as an 11-point advantage over former Sen. Rick Santorum (49 percent to 38 percent). The poll shows Mr. Obama with a 12-point lead over Texas Gov. Rick Perry, at 50 percent to 38 percent.

Independents show a preference for Paul and Romney over Mr. Obama, but they choose Mr. Obama over Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum or Rick Perry.

Voters divide in their overall opinions of Mr. Obama: 38 percent view him favorably, but more - 45 percent - have an unfavorable impression of him. While opinions of the president among registered voters are mixed, they are more positive than voters' views of any of the Republican candidates running for president.

The percentage of Americans that say they have a clear idea of what Mr. Obama wants to accomplish in a second term has risen 11 points from 32 percent in December to 43 percent today. Still, more than half - 54 percent - say they do not have a clear idea of what he wants to accomplish.

The national Republican race and key GOP constituencies

Nationally, Romney has opened up a lead now in Republican primary voters' preference for the Republican presidential nomination, earning 28 percent support and pulling away a bit from a fractured field.

Gingrich is in second at 21 percent, followed by Santorum at 16 percent and Paul at 15 percent.

Behind the horserace numbers lies a still-tight race among some key groups - including, importantly, Tea Party backers - the voters who powered the party's gains in 2010 and may yet be pivotal in 2012. They comprise 44 percent of Republican primary voters in this poll.

Among Tea Party supporters, Romney still leads with 29 percent support, but Gingrich is close behind with 28 percent. Santorum comes in third with 18 percent, followed by Paul at 12 percent.

Romney's business experience may be keeping him competitive among Tea Party backers: They're more likely than other primary voters to seek someone with a business background specifically, and not government experience. That may be balancing out the fact that Tea Partiers see Santorum - not Romney - as sharing their values.

It's also still a tight race among other critical groups within the Republican party, including conservatives (who account for six in 10 voters) and white evangelicals, who make up a large number of Republican primary voters, especially in southern and Midwestern states.

Paul -- who is fourth nationally but coming off a second-place showing in the New Hampshire primary -- does much better with men than with women, as he did in the Granite state. Paul also wins the support of 23 percent of moderates. Romney also scores well among moderates with 38 percent support.

In many states' primaries, independents can join in the voting along with Republicans; Mitt Romney currently does well with both groups among primary voters, and that may help explain why he draws even in a general election matchup with President Obama, too.

Strength of support, enthusiasm

As this and other polls have noted throughout the contest, the lion's share of primary voters (74 percent) say they could still change their minds about whom to support, and the race remains fluid.

In fact, all the top tier candidates elicit reservations among their current supporters, and 62 percent of Republican voters overall have reservations about their candidate.

CBS

Republican primary voters remain unsatisfied with the Republican field: 68 percent say they want more candidate choices. This is the highest dissatisfaction has been among Republican primary voters since this question was first asked of them in September, and far higher than it was in January 2008, when 39 percent wanted more choices.

After top finishes in both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, Mitt Romney holds a lead over the other candidates in this national poll. Should Romney win the Republican nomination, many Tea Party supporters and evangelicals would support him with reservations or only because he would be the Republican nominee - but very few say they would not support him.

Thirty-five percent of Tea Party supporters say they will enthusiastically support Romney if he is the nominee, but they are more enthusiastic about Santorum (45 percent) or Gingrich (41 percent).

Among evangelical voters, 26 percent would be enthusiastic about Romney - but the candidate they would be most enthusiastic about is Santorum (38 percent).

Among conservatives, 27 percent would be enthusiastic about Romney, lower than for Gingrich (33 percent) or Santorum (38 percent). But 31 percent of moderates would be enthusiastic about Romney as the nominee, and that's higher than their enthusiasm for Santorum or Gingrich.

Candidate qualities

Romney is increasingly likely to be viewed as the most electable candidate: 56 percent of primary voters say that, up from 49 percent earlier in January, and 37 percent in December.

Romney is also viewed as best at handling the economy and unemployment at 28 percent, although Gingrich is close behind at 27 percent, and has risen since earlier this month.

Despite Romney's strengths, a plurality of Republican voters, 25 percent, say Santorum best represents the values they live by.

With 39 percent or Republican primary voters holding a favorable view of him, Romney is viewed the most positively of the five candidates remaining in the Republican race. Thirty-four percent have a favorable opinion of Gingrich, though slightly more - 36 percent - view him unfavorably. Thirty-three percent view Santorum favorably, though more than half say they still have not formed an opinion of him. Paul and Perry receive net negative evaluations: More of these voters view each negatively than positively.

Among registered voters overall, most do not place much importance on whether or not a candidate shares their own religion; 41 percent say it is at least somewhat important that they do, but 59 percent say it's not important.

But religion could play a role in this year's Republican primaries. Fifty-six percent of Republican primary voters say religion is at least somewhat important; that figure rises to 85 percent among white evangelical primary voters.

Forty percent of voters overall think presidential candidates should discuss the role of religion in their lives, but most, 56 percent, think they should not. Here too, views differ among Republican primary voters: More than half - 54 percent - says candidates should discuss the role of religion in their lives.

More from the poll:

Poll: 4 in 10 say gov't should pay more attention to minority issues
Poll: Obama's approval rating stable; Americans want compromise
Poll: Mitt Romney atop fluid GOP race with 28%
Poll: Most want limits on campaign spending
Poll: More see signs of life in economy
Full poll results on the Republican race (PDF)
Full poll results on the general election (PDF)

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This poll was conducted by telephone from January 12-17, 2012 among 1,154 adults nationwide.

1,021 interviews were conducted with registered voters and 340 with voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three points and five points for the sample of Republican primary voters. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

[hallagon]

I'd like to vote on the polls why aren't they open to us on here?

[gep1955]

obama better forget about mitt and start gearing up for newt. america needs a man to change washington not a man who uses washington to change america. in 2012, clean both houses of moderate repubs and marxist dems. save america, not your party.

[RonPaulLibertyForAll]

Slow and steady wins the race

Ron Paul 2012

[ljl765]

I can not believe the blind way that although no one likes Romney and they don't trust the others, who are neither qualified or intelligent enough to lead a country, and yet some would rather win and vote for "anyone", lterally anyone. How can you people hand this country over to these liars. Do none of you read or do you just listen to Fox misinformation and CNN is no better. I have never seen anything like this in my lifetime. I used to be a republican and then I began to pay attention to the facts and the facts show clearly, the GOP is not the party I grew up with, they're claims of the 'Democrat party taxing and spending" is nonsense and has been for the past two decades, Shame on anyone would would go along with voting for "Anyone but Obama"..since our current President is the ONBLY one running who can and would help if some angry people had used their heads. Voting in anger got us the Tea party, the party of shame and ignorance who ruined our Bond rathing and have done nothing to create one jobs Bill. Instead trhey created 100 anti women laws and many other useless lasws that will be struck down. Obama wasn't even shown the respect o appoint everyone he chose for a cabinet. The Koch Breothers are treasonous to this country and a horror for America's future. Elect Obama, not these shamefil clowns. in the GOP I know I never will elect another GOP candaidate again.

[RonPaulLibertyForAll]

Anyone but Obama! I could say that except I don't think Gingrich or Romney would be much better. Just as Obama wasn't better than bush even though we hoped he would be.
Ron Paul 2012 the only person with a real plan to change things for the better.

[noloyalisti]

I think when all is said and done, Obama beats Robmee or any other ridiculous, obsolete Republicon by 10-15 points. People are understandably angry with all the corporate elected officials but at the end, a huge percentage will back Obama because of how awful the extremist wacko arm (the Republicons) of the American political party is.

[noloyalisti]

Obama will crush any agent of the failed and obsolete Republicon Party of the Top 1%.

And no one could pick a more perfect representation of the Top 1% and everything that has gone wrong than Robmee. If this was a comedy show this would be an awesome joke. Unfortunately this election is about life and death for middle class Americans. And Mint RawMoney is an awesome evil force for filthy, greedy vulture capitalists of America.

[nottblu]

Here are some facts that will negate your daily lies. Fact, out of the top ten richest congressmen presently serving seven are DEMOCRATS, Obama is attending a campaign fundraiser toninght put on by Spike Lee he is a one percenter, the cost to attend is $39,000.00 per person. Corporations contributed more to Obama's presidential run last time than McCain's. The 1% you worthless leaches of society blame for all the problems pay 37% of all income tax collected. Obama's campaign coffers will be over 1 billion dollars more proof of his lies in regards to campaign funding limitations, a new record. Stick those facts in your pot pipe and smoke them you ignorant partisan troll.

[allmynews]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/01/15/andrew-sullivan-how-obama-s-long-game-will-outsmart-his-critics.html

[tsigili]

The problem there, is it SHOULD be a slam dunk win for anyone opposing Obama.

The fact it isn't, says everything about Romney.

[WiseAsOwl]

No... I say it says everything about Obama... There will always be a few Liberal clowns that will vote for Obama.... no matter what.. Is there ANYBODY out there who REALLY wants more of Obama???

[BlameRepublicanz]

WiseasOwl isnt too wise at all...yes, dipsh*t...50% of the voting population supports him

[jdaryyl]

We all lose without someone with integrity. Our country is heading the wrong direction economically and foreign policy is speeding up our eventual demise. The only winners are the offshore global banksters. Global-Offshore-banksters tied in with our federal reserve system. Why is this so hard to understand? Follow the money. Look into who is funding all the candidates. Pick the one who has independance from the global banksters... ARRGGGHH! We are so screwweed!

[RonPaulLibertyForAll]

Sounds like Ron Paul to me

[mars7578]

People always cry for the backup quarterback when the starter is struggling.However the GOP is getting the exact candidates which are their worst nightmare.The GOP has poisoned the republican position so badly,that mainstream republicans dare not run.Mitt represent the most hated of the 1%.The new globalist is not concerned about the general welfare of a nation ,only about profit.They have robbed many of the world government and leave them poorer than slave owners.Unless Mitt reject his globalist PALS,if elected, he will rob AMERICA BLIND.