After New Hampshire primary win, all is not rosy for Mitt Romney

EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/Getty Images

Updated 11:30 p.m. ET

On its face, it looked like a great night Tuesday for Mitt Romney. He won a decisive victory in the New Hampshire GOP primary, defeating his rivals by more than fifteen points. Examining the CBS News poll of exiting voters, though, reveals a number of worrisome signs for Romney among core groups in the electorate, which if not reversed could spell trouble for him as the campaign progresses.

Republicans Don't Love Him

Candidate enthusiasm is a key antecedent of electoral success. Whichever nominee generates the most excitement among its base typically has an easier time getting their supporters to the polls and ultimately securing more votes. When President Obama won the presidential election in 2008, he had more than twice as many voters excited about him becoming president than his Republican counterpart John McCain.

At this point in the campaign, Republican voters are not thrilled with the idea of Romney becoming the Republican presidential nominee. Nearly a third of self-indentified Republicans in the New Hampshire GOP primary would be dissatisfied if he were fronting the ticket. Of the Republicans who are dissatisfied with them, 60 percent are fiscal conservatives who want lower taxes and reduced federal spending.

Full New Hampshire primary results
New Hampshire Exit Poll
Republican Primary Election Center

Tea Partiers Can't Stand Him

In 2009, the Tea Party movement burst onto the political scene protesting taxes and budget deficits, and calling for steep reductions in government spending. Within a year, it had mobilized into a potent political force, whose endorsed candidates upset Republican incumbents in primaries across the country and won a number of Senate and House races in the 2010 Midterm elections. With their organization and energy, the Tea Party movement has the capacity to play an important role in the 2012 presidential race.

To this point, though, the Tea Party movement has wanted nothing to do with Romney. Judson Phillips, the founder of Tea Party Nation, endorsed Newt Gingrich. The Tea Party Fund created a website - NotMittRomney.com - to inform voter's of his liberal positions on key issues. And, Karen Martin, South Carolina Tea Party organizer said on National Public Radio recently that "no Tea Partier that I talk to in the state or nationally would want to promote Romney."

In the Iowa caucuses, Romney finished tied for fourth among strong supporters of the Tea Party movement, 14 points back of Rick Santorum. In New Hampshire, although he won a plurality of the vote among Republicans who strongly back the movement, he received noticeably less support than he did from Republicans who were less supportive of the movement.

Romney braces for a fight in South Carolina
Why Romney won in New Hampshire
Jon Huntsman survives, but for how much longer?

Low Income Men Can't Relate to Him

Low income, white men have long been an important part of the Republican base. Romney, though, has alienated many of them with comments during the campaign that were perceived as being insensitive. At a debate last month in Iowa, he tried to make a $10,000 wager with Rick Perry over how his health care plan was characterized in his book. This past week, he commented that he liked to "fire people" that provide services to him.

These gaffes are showing their impact at the polls. In the past two contests, Romney has done poorly among white men from households earning less than $50,000 annually. In the Iowa caucuses, he received less than 15 percent of their support. In the supposedly friendly confines of New Hampshire he did not fare much better. He received only 27 percent of the vote from low income, white men in New Hampshire, trailing Ron Paul by 11 points.

At left, watch Romney's speech to supporters in New Hampshire Tuesday night.

Independents Don't Support Him

Self-identified independents are a key swing group in presidential elections. Winning their support doesn't ensure electoral success, but losing it by a wide margin almost guarantees defeat. In 2008, Barack Obama defeated John McCain among independents 52 percent to 44 percent on his way to winning the presidency.

Despite all his success in the nomination campaign, Romney has been unable to attract much support from independents. In Iowa, Paul crushed Romney among self-identified independents, besting him 43 percent to 19 percent. Things improved in New Hampshire, but on a night, in which Romney won most demographic groups, he managed to lose independents again. Paul beat Romney 32 percent to 29 percent.

Romney's weakness among independents appears to stem from views about how to solve the federal budget deficit, likely to be a major issue in the fall campaign. Among independent voters in the New Hampshire GOP primary who thought the deficit was the most important issue, they supported Paul over Romney by a whopping 48 percent to 23 percent margin.

Poll results discussed in this article are based on a National Election Pool entrance poll conducted by Edison Media Research. Interviews were conducted with 2760 primary voters as they exited precincts around New Hampshire. The margin of error for the poll is +/-4 percentage points.

Full CBS News coverage: Mitt Romney
Full coverage: Campaign 2012

17 Photos

New Hampshire primary night scenes

[listenup01]

A little post script to my previous post to DoJo724......But some of us have to make do with Social Security, too old to work, and we pay apx 1200.00 per year to have the privilege of using Medicare.

[listenup01]

DoJo 724.....You probably listen a lot to "talking points" and Rush Limbaugh. Some of us Democrats do not drink Kool Aid, are not existing on some kind of subsidized government program, and some of us are really nice people.

[ajcVeteran]

My fellow voters, please be wary and be very scared of Mitt Romney carney salesman of the Bain Capital carpetbagger company. Romney's extremist vulture capitalist job wacking ender approach is NOT 'what' Reagan's pro-business approach was about. Reagan's conservative business philosophy was about creating quality high paying jobs, not acting like Darth Romney and Bain factory busters whom swept down on struggling companies, took their double edge boot knives out and gutted them and their poor fellow Americans of ours...down to their skeletons. As your co-workers and you head for unemployment, off they go running in the other direction with millions in profits, preying on any company they can gleefully sack. He doesn't want to save your or America's soul...he wants to collect your dying hopes in his personal cookie memory jars---owning it in a way that you will never get it back.

Sadly, it was two US government bailouts that Romney/Bain applied for and utilized...that saved their company so they could then destroy more folks dreams.

In Gaffney, South Carolina for example, Bain's company, Holson Burns Group Inc, shut down a company while raking in $24 million dollar, doubling their initial investment as the South Carolinians he pink slipped...stayed home empty handed. As Romney-Bain said recently, he "like(s) to fire people". Indeed he does! When a business is run by ethical leaders and in the right hands, capitalism is a great job creator and community uplifter...just not in Romney-Bain's. In gaffney, after he shut down that company...a community of 12,000 suffered the side negative affects. You see, shutting down factories instead of saving them, harms lots more than those whom got let go...

Below link to actual copies of financial documents regarding this shut down and sale:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/275058-holson-burnes-documents.html

https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.documentcloud.org/documents/275058/holson-burnes-documents.pdf

Romney-Bain collectively, gave conservative family values and what is respectable about America's business tradition a back eye and a bad name. Candidate Romney-Bain is no Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Warren Buffet, etc...Not by liberal mile.

As a combat veteran myself I believe---the Romney-Bain approach is robbing the suffering and giving them the middle finger as Romney-Bain and his family roll around their many home's palacial beds, luxuring in your hard earned money they hijacked from you.

Do fear, yes that's right---FEAR Romney Gecko swooping upon your city ripping apart everything you have left.. If he gets in, he'll take away everything that you and your family hold dear. In both Iowa and New Hampshire, 60% of the Republican voters voted AGAINST Romneycare man.

Fellow GOPers, your vital voting duty moment is near. It's up to each and every one of you---to stop Romney's carried out scorched earth conservatism.

One day he is for abortions, the next day he isn't. One day he tells T
Ted Kennedy I'm not for Reaganism, but today..he claims he loves Ronald Reagan. Our future voting, must enjoin to stop this poser.

This time, pretty...is just too pretty to be true. I know Ronald Reagan, and Mitt the Hun workforce terminator, is no Reagan. Good luck and God bless you!!!

[listenup01]

Nice long post, but a few words says it all. He has got money, he has power, he has most of what life can offer to us, and he does not care about helping the U.S. citizenry. What he wants and all he wants is "to be president", and he will get what he wants if money will buy it. Follow the Money

[bluetruckinla]

Mitt Romney Is trying to count jobs of companies that managed to burn the leech (Bain Capital) off and survived. Much like jobs saved ..... only god could knows the answer along with knowing the number of grains of sand in all the world. Then there is Mitt Romney's commercial trying to take credit for Staples. Staples as a start up and now Mitt Romney is claiming credit for all it's jobs. Then there is the Steel mill that local and state governments bailed out along with a sales tax increase form everybody in the area. In short Mitt Romney is a proven Liar but for some strange reason his lies are called Flip-Flops meaning he is truthful regardless how many time he tells contradicting stories about the same issue or thing. To the point Mitt Romney's claims of job creation are simply not true because he never created any jobs here. Mitt Romney out sourced jobs to China and Mexico. Mitt Romney has cost US jobs.

Mitt Romney Is trying to count jobs of companies that managed to burn the leech (Bain Capital) off and survived. Then there is Mitt Romney's commercial trying to take credit for Staples. Staples as a start up and now Mitt Romney is claiming credit for all it's jobs. Then there is the Steel mill that local and state governments bailed out along with a sales tax increase form everybody in the area. In short Mitt Romney is a proven Liar but for some strange reason his lies are called Flip-Flops meaning he is truthful regardless how many time he tells contradicting stories about the same issue or thing. To the point Mitt Romney's claims of job creation are simply not true because he never created any jobs here. Mitt Romney out sourced jobs to China and Mexico. Mitt Romney has cost US jobs.

[toastpost]

It is a shame to see so many comments which are disrespectful to other people commenting. There really is nothing to disagree about, in any "respect"

You may dislike Mr. Obama but Mr. Romney IS a weak candidate leading a weak field of Republican candidates.

He has " flip- flopped" on major issues of importance to his party.

He most likely was not concerned about how many people lost their jobs after failed Bain investments. He would have known going In that some investments would not work, ergo, people at those companies would lose their jobs.

Is he some sort of Charletan as suggested? Probably. Is Mr. Obama? Probably. Will Mr. Romney further decay the remnants of the american dream? Probably.

You've got to admit though, you'd prefer to see him winning than Bachmann, Perry, Palin, Gingrich, Santorum, the cheating pizza fella, the grotesquely overweight Christie and Bachmann (felt obligated to name her twice)

[noloyalisti]

Obama is playing chess while the idiot Republicons like Romney are playing checkers. By governing far to the right of center Obama has forced the Republicon Taliban to go so far to the right that they are not even on the playing field for the election.

Brilliant actually.

[jayz1943]

Now that "Dear Leader" Obama has been exposed as a fraud, he has been relegated to the only thing he does well: Recite propaganda from a teleprompter. This shyster is the most incompetent president in U.S. history. He went from "Hope and Change" to "We Can't Wait" and finally, "Just Hang In There".

Mitt Romney is sorely needed as someone who will actually LEAD. We need a strong leader, not someone who endlessly criss-crosses the country repeating meaningless slogans and jingles. For someone who started out with the hopes and dreams of a country, Obama is ending up just looking inept and foolish.

[noloyalisti]

Romney is a certified wacko and part of an extremist obsolete arm of the American Top 1% Party. Romney represents everything that is wrong with America because his immoral position in the Top 0.001%.

[tom_gwynn]

Obama's been exposed as a fraud? Oh my goodness.

I guess that the stock market having risen 64% so far in his presidency is a fraud. (7949.09-->12422.06)

I guess Bin Ladin being dead is a fraud too.

Must be that most of the senior Al Queda leaders being killed on his watch is also a fraud.

That GM is now the #1 auto maker in both the world *and* China is a fraud. The 1.5 million jobs that Obama saved by intervening must be frauds too.

The fact that our troops are out of the Iraqi shooting gallery is a fraud.

The fact that (thanks to Obama) your insurance company can't drop you for getting sick must be a fraud.

The fact that Quaddafi, the man who bombed PanAm 103, is dead must be fraud.

The fact that the country avoided another Great Depression, and that the economy has been growing (slow but steady) since June 2009 must be a fraud.

The fact that he gave a tax cut worth almost $1000/yr to working folks instead of billionaires must also be a fraud.

The new consumer protection bureau that's actually on the side of the consumer and not the big banks must be a fraud.

Nah, there's no way any single President could do all that in just 3 years, especially not with an opposition party that controls the House and thus the nation's budget. A party so determined to sabotage him that it will *actually put the full faith and credit of this country at risk* rather than hand him a legislative victory of any kind.

Yup, Obama must be a fraud all right... either that or you are.

4 more years.

[Tired_of_liars]

by economicterror January 12, 2012 8:37 AM EST
Old people won't live long if the anti American GOP economic terrorist pimps for the 1% take away their Social Security and, Medicare, so rich people don't have to pay taxes.
------------------------------
I guess you are not as intelligent as you thought.

They want to change SS for FUTURE GENERATIONS, not those on it right now. You are a LIAR and Brain Dead

[MrCoatsLibertyNow]

Any potential Romney supporters out there need to watch this before voting for him:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2h8ujX6T0A

GO DR. RON PAUL 2012!!!

[pjk12354]

The only reason Mitt Romney thinks he is the best choice for president is because he has spent more money than anyone else.

You get what you pay for.

[imnho]

I heard the the entire quote. My problem was his demeanor. I got the feeling from how he was saying it thar he would have a real good time firing people. It was a little bit like Marie Antonnete saying,"Let them eat cake!"

I think he was thinking out loud of the fun he would have firing people.

I think the only tool he has in his CEO box is to abolish jobs. Since all he has is the hammer of layoffs his fellow citizens look like nails to be hit. Voters don't like to be hit with hammers.