Political Hotsheet
By

Stephanie Condon /

CBS News/ January 10, 2012, 6:00 AM

Can Mitt Romney be stopped?

AP Photo/Charles Dharapak

DERRY, N.H. -- Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney looks as if he's about to trounce his GOP rivals in the New Hampshire primary today, but you wouldn't know it by listening to him on the campaign trail.

Taking the stage in a high school gymasium Saturday morning, Romney started his stump speech with a joke: "Fresh from that landslide in Iowa, maybe can we double that number?" Romney said with a stilted laugh, referencing his eight-vote victory in the January 3 Iowa caucuses.

Romney has for weeks held a double-digit lead over all of his competitors in New Hampshire. If he wins, Romney will have set a milestone: No other non-incumbent Republican has ever won both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary since the modern presidential nomination process was established in the 1970's. A University of New Hampshire poll released Monday showed Romney with 41 percent support. Ron Paul trailed at 17 percent, while Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman tied for third at 11 percent each.

"Let me tell you, don't get too confident with those poll numbers," Romney said Saturday. "I've watched poll numbers come and go. Things change very quickly, it's very fluid. I need to make sure you guys get your friends to go out and you vote as well."

Clearly, Romney knows all too well what political prognosticators are saying: "It's 100 percent an expectations game at this point," said Mike Dennehy, an unaligned New Hampshire Republican strategist.

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And expectations are high. "The way I see it, there's three options coming out of New Hampshire," Dennehy said, "Mitt Romney winning by 15 points, Mitt Romney winning by 10, or Mitt Romney winning by five. If he wins by 15, he goes to South Carolina with unstoppable momentum."

If Romney was trying to tamp down expectations, he didn't seem to get the message across to his supporter, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. The governor joined Romney at Saturday's rally, telling an enthusiastic crowd, "We dont just need a win in New Hampshire, we need a landslide in New Hampshire! And let me tell you why we need a landslide: Because after this, guess where he's going next? He's going to South Carolina. I know he's going to win South Carolina, by the way."

Romney's dominance isn't too surprising, since he is a familiar name in New Hampshire. He was governor of the neighboring state of Massachusetts from 2003 through 2007, and given that the New Hampshire media market overlaps with Boston's, Granite state residents often heard Romney's name in the local news. Romney also owns a summer home in New Hampshire.

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Still, the campaign is taking nothing for granted, said campaign spokesman Ryan Williams. "We're campaigning every day like we're three votes behind," he said.

With the help of more than 3,000 volunteers, the campaign has knocked on 59,000 doors in the Granite state, distributed more than 17,500 yard signs and made 332,000 phone calls to primary voters.

Yet for all his efforts, Romney seems to have hit a ceiling. He stance in the polls isn't significantly better than the margin of support he won in the 2008 primary, when he came in second place with 32 percent.

"To some extent, it's a race, and Republican primary voters, they want a race," said New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, a Romney supporter. "They want to hear the back and forth before they make up their mind."

At campaign events hosted by Romney's rivals, voters seem to confirm Ayotte's statement. Many say they're deciding between Romney and whichever other candidate they've turned out to hear.

Bob and Dee Stiles, for instance, stopped by the Homestead Grocery and Deli in the town of Hollis to hear Rick Santorum speak on Saturday. They said they supported Romney in 2008 and were considering voting for him again, but they first wanted to hear more about Santorum's economic platform. Dee Stiles said they've always liked Santorum's moral convictions, "but we're also considering whether can he win."

According to Dennehy, if Romney wins in New Hampshire by a slim margin - say, 5 percent - the conservative base could coalesce around another candidate. That candidate would likely be Santorum, who nearly tied Romney in the Iowa caucuses and is "the only conservative candidate with the slightest bit of momentum," Dennehy said.

That said, Dennehy added, such an outcome would likely take two other candidates dropping out of the race before the January 21 South Carolina primary, which is unlikely to happen.

Still, Romney's opponents are largely downplaying their own expectations in New Hampshire, arguing they will come back strong in South Carolina, where the electorate is more conservative. Asked on Sunday whether he has to place at least third in New Hampshire to remain a viable candidate, Gingrich said, "No, I think I have to go to South Carolina with a clear communication that I am a Reagan conservative, and that I'm a primary competitor and Gov. Romney's not."

Gingrich: I have to win South Carolina
Has Huntsman's moment arrived just in time?

Williams said the Romney campaign is prepared for a long nomination process. After all, while Iowa and New Hampshire can give a candidate game-changing momentum, they only account for a few dozen delegates out of the at least 1,144 needed to secure the GOP nomination for president.

"Our goal is to reach the level of delegates that's needed for the nomination," Williams said. "We're running a campaign in all 50 states."

Even if Romney wins by a slim margin here, New Hamsphire Republican constultant Jamie Burnett said he's still likely to win in the following states. Candidates like Santorum or Gingrich may close in on Romney's lead, but if they want to truly stop him, Burnett said, "at some point you've just got to beat the guy."

Full CBS News coverage: Mitt Romney
Special report: Election 2012

© 2012 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
197 Comments Add a Comment
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Zann-Zel says:
Is there a nightly "rapture" around here? So many people disappear overnight!
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Zann-Zel replies:
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What do you do after I check out for the day George? LOL - you must be quite a troublemaker! ; )
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Tired_of_liars says:
by economicterror January 10, 2012 2:10 PM EST
The anti American GOP economic terrorist pimps for the 1% clown car CAN be stopped.
It's up to decent, ethical, Patriots to do it.
We can't afford another Dumya Debacle.

Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/8601-503544_162-57355682-3.html?assetTypeId=41&blogId=503544&tag=contentBody;commentWrapper#ixzz1j7LGfQgP

First off, you would not know what ethics would be if it slapped you in the face. You have NO ethics. You are just a loud mouth dufus
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Zann-Zel says:
Bye Y'all!

Trout I'll say a prayer for you tonight! Maybe it will help! : )
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Zann-Zel replies:
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hmmm........perhaps they were praying for an end to their suffering? ; )
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ProgressNow says:
I thought god was a smile on a dog (per the song)?
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ProgressNow says:
Real question is, will he ever get above 25% with the GOP???
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Zann-Zel replies:
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Is he still tied with "Anyone Else" ? LOL
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slownewsday4BO2012 says:
The 2010 elected House GOP under Boehner have pretty much stopped Obama in his socialist 4.5 trillion spending tracks.
Old Mitt will just run over him like a freight train if the unemployment stays a a record high since the Great Depression and the numbers of unemployed go back to 9.1 percent after this months numbers come out. All those jobs that they counted in December were seasonal temporary part time low wage jobs for the holidays.
Also if the economy keeps chugging along on fumes.
Obammy only has his abysmal record to run on.
Barry and Moochelle, better start packing their junk in Nov. for eviction in January.
Anyone But Obama in 2012!
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Zann-Zel replies:
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Anyone But Obama in 2012!
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Thanks for the vote Slow!

ZANN-RANGER 2012 : )
Zann-Zel replies:
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Crazy people! I have enough trouble keeping up with my own identity! Where do they find the time to steal someone elses?
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ProgressNow says:
Can Mitt Romney be stopped? Sure, by Obama...OBAMA 2012!!!!!
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Zann-Zel replies:
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Oh yeah! That's what we're supposed to be talking about!

OBAMA 2012 : )
ProgressNow replies:
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Get god out of politics...
See all 4 Replies
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occupy_cbs says:
Mortar1SG29: "Dear American liberals, leftists, social progressives, socialists, Marxists and Obama supporters, et al....
Here is a model separation agreement:"


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occupy_cbs: BTW mortar, you should give the author of "your divorce" credit, instead of showing how much of a plagiarist you are, since you've never had an original thought in your miserable life!
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Mortar1SG29: "And your last point is nonsense. Why? Because you are projecting. Your statement applies to you, not me!"
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You really are an arrogant projectionist, unable to admit you stole that "divorce," while never having an original thought in your life.

Here's the proof, word for word from John J. Wall
Las Student, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri:

PROPOSED DIVORCE AND SEPARATION AGREEMENT

Written by John J. Wall
Friday, 13 March 2009

http://www.tothepointnews.com/content/view/3546/85/

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You're just an outright plagiarist, mortar, and cannot admit it!
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slownewsday4BO2012 replies:
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You should see occupy with a pair of sissors making paper dolls!
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Zann-Zel says:
EmpireGeorge___-- January 10, 2012 3:58 PM EST
Zann-Zel, notice this same tactic with other Secularists and Atheists, who attempt to discredit or shame people of faith, they will always pick the fire and brimstone quotes of the ancient hebrew bible, and NEVER from the new testament.....because giving up your life for others, loving one another, and everything Jesus teaches us, is not good ammunition, when hating is your agenda.
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I have something to add to that.
Notice also the people who preach Hate against Gays and that women should be controlled, all IN the name of God (according to them) - they also get their ammunition from the "Old Testament".
And YET we Claim to be a "Christian Nation" - so why aren't we ALL taking our cues from the NEW TESTAMENT?
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Zann-Zel replies:
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Because its history.
We learn from History -well hopefully we learn from it and don't repeat it!
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Mortar1SG29 says:
by Zann-Zel January 10, 2012 3:17 PM EST
Why do you think its called the "New" Testament.
Things changed.
See even God is not afraid of a little change now and then! ; )

Do you not think that when he sent his son down here to become human that something changed in Him? I mean if I sent my son, and they killed him, and yet he said "Father forive them, they know now what they do." I think that would have some affect on me!

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Not really, Zann. You are thinking like a human, now...instead of liek God.

You act like God didnt know an eternity ago that this was going to happen. He knew before time began that His son would go...that everything would be the way it is. When He spun it all into being, He knew how it would end.

It is hard for us to fathom that.
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Zann-Zel replies:
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Of course I'm thinking like a Human! I AM a human! LOL!
Yes we are taught that its all part of his plan - so perhaps his Plan was to change! Maybe he never changed INSIDE - but the way he deals with us was changed when he entered into a New Covenant.
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