New Iowa poll: Romney leads, Gingrich slips, Santorum rises

By: Lucy Madison
Topics: Campaign 2012

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks during a campaign stop at Homer's Deli and Bakery in Clinton, Iowa, Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2011.

(Credit: AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

Just six days ahead of the Iowa caucuses, a new poll of Iowa Republicans suggests that Newt Gingrich's political star may be falling in Iowa, where the former House speaker now comes in fourth behind frontrunner Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and surprise third-place finisher Rick Santorum.

The poll, conducted by CNN/Time/ORC from December 21-27, shows Romney leading Paul 25 percent to 22 percent in the first-in-the-nation caucus state, while Santorum trails with 16 percent. Gingrich earned 14 percent. Romney's three point lead falls within the poll's margin of error, which was 4.5 percent.

Behind Gingrich came Rick Perry with 11 percent, Michele Bachmann with 9 percent, and Jon Huntsman with one percent. Two percent of respondents said they had no opinion.

Gingrich has fallen dramatically in the last month, compared to a poll conducted by the same group between November 29-Dec. 6. In that survey, Gingrich led the pack in Iowa with 33 percent support. Mitt Romney trailed him by 13 points, with 20 percent, and Ron Paul followed him with 17 percent. Santorum, at the time, was not even polling in the double digits: He earned just five percent a month ago.

Iowans, however, appear more confident about their choices then they did a month ago. According to the latest survey, 54 percent of Republican caucus-goers say they will definitely support the candidate they selected, while 43 percent said they still might change their mind. In the survey a month ago, 55 percent said they might change their mind, and only 39 percent said they would definitely support the candidate they had named.

In a New Hampshire poll by the same organizations, Romney has eclipsed the competition. According to the survey, Romney, who owns a house there, earned 44 percent, followed by Paul with 17 percent, Gingrich with 16 percent, and Jon Huntsman with 9 percent.

Romney is up nine points from last month, when he was polling at 35 percent in the state; Gingrich, on the other hand, has seen his polls drop ten points, from 26 to 16, in the same time.

Santorum fell back to fifth place in the Granite state, according to Wednesday's survey, with just four percent. Bachmann followed him with three percent and Perry earned two percent.

Lucy Madison
Lucy Madison is a political reporter for CBSNews.com.
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by TimGoodrich December 31, 2011 9:02 PM EST: Laughing my ass off. We already know RON PAUL IS way ahead of all of them. Get Real.
By The Way.............Do you know who owns CBS??
check out who owns the news dot com and see why this ******** propaganda network is TERRIFIED of Ron Paul winning.
For all of you Obummer clowns...........HE JUST SIGNED the NDAA. Our American(Kenyan) president just signed away our BILL OF RIGHTS.

RON PAUL WILL WIN!!!!
Tim Goodrich; Reply to this comment


by greco99-2009 December 30, 2011 2:38 PM EST: The candidate in the Republican party with the long standing and deep racist background is Mitt Romney.

Mitt was a leader in the LDS church at a time when blacks were not only excluded from leadership but were also considered lessor humans tainted by sin.

Mitt never said a word against these policies and may still believe these 'teachings' from the LDS core scripture.

Mitt did also at one time say that his dad 'marched with Martin Luther King' but this has been widely debunked as another baldfaced Romney lie.; Reply to this comment


by greco99-2009 December 30, 2011 2:37 PM EST: Mitt dodged the draft and none of his sons served.

But, he is willing to send you and your family to fight a new war that is unnecessary and which will not protect or benefit the US.; Reply to this comment

by ryan_marshall December 29, 2011 12:16 PM EST

CNN INVENTED THIS POLL!
RON PAUL IS IN THE LEAD WITH 24%!
CNN IS CORRUPT MEDIA!

Reply to this comment


by bhuntftl December 29, 2011 7:19 PM EST: The best source for this comment is the New York Times, which points out that this poll was specifically performed in order to reduce Ron Paul's standing. This is the only poll performed yet in Iowa that does not make any effort to account for the Independents and democrats that will re-register on the day of the poll to vote in the caucus. All of the other polls to date have included independents and democrats at an estimated 15% of the electorate. The 15% number was arrived at by assuming the same number of independents and democrats will "cross over" to the republican caucus as in 2008. Of course, even this number is very low considering that democrats had their own caucus in 2008. CNN knows this and decided to do a lopsided poll because it was the only possible way their preferred candidate could come out ahead. My personal suspicion is that a legitimite poll would show Paul out of statistical equality with Romney, something CNN could never accept or report on. Fortunately, though, the only poll that actually counts will happen in a few days and then CNN (and, to a lesser extent, the other major media conglomerates) will have to really work to marginalize the results.

by BlameRepublicanz December 29, 2011 10:46 AM EST

folks, folks...every ounce of energy you place into these GOP looney tune candidates is a waste...Obama has it in the bag...he's beating all candidates head to head by at least 7 points...and once the media shines the spotlight on one of these clowns, most likely ROmney...you will see that gap increase further...add to that, that the economy is improving and unemployment will most likely go down a few more notches...lets just hope the anti-American, politics first, tealiban congress doesnt succeed in blocking any and everything that might help the country and in turn, Obama's re-election chances...good thing they were exposed doing exactly this the other week...America has caught onto their obstructionist game they have been playing with our legislative process

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by bhuntftl December 29, 2011 7:30 PM EST: Are you living on the same planet the rest of the country is? I mean, well, let's be realistic, the economy is the worst its been since the great depression. The only reason the unemployment figures are improving is that people are falling off the rolls. Obama is going for another 1.2 TRILLION debt this week. Now he is going the way of every other bad president and banging the drums for another war in the middle east to get people to stop seeing his dismal performance at home. I mean, gee, being loyal to your party is all good and all but at the end of the day, we have a country sinking fast and another four years of Obama just isn't going to cut it. We don't have more time to waste on Corporatists and butt-kissing politicians. We need a president who cherishes the values that once made America a great country and the moral leader of the world, and the only person like that in this election is Ron Paul, whether you are Republican or Democrat.


by Saul_Quinn December 29, 2011 3:10 AM EST: Holy Hypo! Santorum Surge yesterday. But he should crash to absurdity by Tuesday and be Toast on Wednesday. Hasta La Bye-Bye Jerk.

You might do well in a hemorrhoid cream commercial? Maybe not? You could mow lawns for a living.; Reply to this comment


by Saul_Quinn December 29, 2011 2:56 AM EST: The GOP leads a false myth of being for conservative, Christian Right followers in reality these people will most likely turn the volume off their TVs when a Republican hate ad comes on. So billions of dollars will be wasted on securing their vote.

On the other hand...

the drunk, Trailer Trash will probably be the mainstream GOP voters. Why?

Because they don't have a remote control, and if they did it is broken. These people are uneducated and fall for the false promises of the GOP. They elected W. the worst President in the history of the United States.

The GOP is offering the Trailer Trash a bad set of slime choices for 2012.; Reply to this comment


by norcalruss December 28, 2011 11:35 PM EST: New Iowa poll: Romney leads, Gingrich slips, Santorum rises
++++++++++++++++++++
Santorum is a joke. The only reason that he is rising in the polls is because a lot of bible-thumpers go to the Iowa GOP caucuses. He'll go nowhere after Iowa, just like that guy from Arkansas who looks like Gomer Pyle who won the caucuses in 2008. He will probably finish dead last in NH or next to it.; Reply to this comment

by nearl451 December 28, 2011 10:54 PM EST

Knowing the Iowan electorate quite thoroughly, I find the poll not believable for actual support of Romney.

I can only think that there is some other complex or transient dynamic that registers a temporary fall for others.

Seems there is alot of filthy politicing going on in the mailers.

Abortion is too much of a touchstone issue in Iowa for Romney's past positions not to poison him there.

Reply to this comment


by mattrick78 December 28, 2011 11:07 PM EST: It usually is very difficult to believe polls when we don't like the result.


by norcalruss December 28, 2011 11:42 PM EST: Since I used to live in Iowa I suspect the polls as well. The GOP caucuses have a penchant for voting for a bible-thumping loser who has ZERO possibility of getting elected or even the nomination. In 2008 the voted for Gomer Pyle's stand-in (Mike Huckabee). In 1988 they gave more votes to the buffoon Pat Robertson, than to George H W Bush! The Iowa GOP caucuses are meaningless, the state should opt for a primary which is MUCH more inclusive than the caucuses that attract the extremist nut cases.

by ladyang December 28, 2011 10:04 PM EST

Got to ask. Is romney fooling the neocons/teabaggers now or did he fool the liberals in MA? What a spot to be in huh?

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by norcalruss December 28, 2011 11:44 PM EST: I think that Willard "the waffler" did both. He has no conviction other than to seize power and will say and do anything to get it. He is loyal to nothing more than his own self-absorbed ego and lust for power.