GOP field enters home stretch before Iowa

It's just a week-and-a-half before the Iowa caucuses, the January 3 first-in-the-nation contest that can set a candidate on the road to the nomination - or effectively end the candidacy of a candidate who fails to win Iowans' hearts.

At left, Brian Montonpoli discusses the state of the Republican presidential race in the latest edition of "The Drive."

Special report: Election 2012

The candidates are about to take a couple days off for Christmas, but they'll be back on the road on Monday and Tuesday to make one final push before the voting begins. At left, a discussion of the state of the race on "The Drive," and below, a guide to what's at stake for each of the major GOP candidates in descending order, starting with the candidates with the most to lose:

Michele Bachmann: It might be hard to remember now, but Bachmann was considered a frontrunner for the nomination after she won the Iowa straw poll over the summer. Bachmann has faded in the polls since that victory, and it's gotten to the point where she has to dismiss calls for her to drop out so social conservatives can coalesce one candidate to take on Mitt Romney. 

Bachmann has been campaigning feverishly in Iowa - the state where she was born - engaging in a 99 county bus tour that has taken her to every corner of the state. To keep her presidential hopes alive, she'll need a stronger-than-expected finish that allows her to plausibly claim the mantle of the consensus candidate of social conservatives. Bachmann is polling in the high single digits in Iowa in recent surveys, slightly behind another candidate angling for social conservative votes, Rick Perry; if she doesn't finish ahead of the Texas governor, it's hard to see how she stays in the race much longer.

Full CBS News coverage: Michele Bachmann

AP Photo

Rick Santorum: Santorum, like Bachmann, is fighting to become the consensus choice of social conservatives in order to keep his cash-strapped candidacy alive. He got a boost in that effort this week when influential evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats endorsed the former Pennsylvania senator as "one of us."

Still, Santorum faces a serious uphill climb. He's one of the only candidates to never have seen a surge in the race, raising questions about the broadness of his appeal, even among Republicans. And it doesn't help that he is one of three candidates - along with Bachmann and Rick Perry - who are both targeting social conservatives and are now focused almost exclusively on Iowa. Santorum's best hope is that the Iowa social conservative network that rallied around Mike Huckabee in the 2008 cycle decides to throw its unified weight behind Santorum in an effort to keep either the thrice-married Newt Gingrich or Romney from becoming the GOP nominee.

Full CBS News coverage: Rick Santorum

AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall

Newt Gingrich: Gingrich spent about one week as the clear frontrunner for the nomination before a barrage of negative ads against him in Iowa reversed his momentum. He's now polling behind both Romney and Ron Paul in the Hawkeye State, and has fallen back into a tie with Romney in national polls.

If Gingrich can't reverse the trend before January 3, he'll feed into the narrative being pushed by a pro-Romney super PAC running a torrent of anti-Gingrich ads: That the former House Speaker makes such an easy target that he can't win in a general election. (Or, as the super PAC put it, he's got too much "baggage.") Gingrich is arguing that his largely positive campaign - and his shaming of his rivals for the attack ads - will translate into support on January 3; if it doesn't, concerns about his electability will harden into conventional wisdom.

Full CBS News coverage: Newt Gingrich

Charles Krupa

Ron Paul: The Libertarian Texas lawmaker is the surprise frontrunner to win the caucuses, thanks in part to the fact that the field is so fractured that 25 percent support may well be good enough for a victory. Paul has the youngest and most passionate supporters of any of the GOP candidates (though it doesn't help that the caucuses fall when many college students will be on their winter break) as well as the best ground game in the state, thanks to his 2008 presidential campaign and the organization that sprung up in its wake.

Paul remains a long shot for the nomination, thanks in part to a non-interventionist foreign policy that nearly one in two Republicans calls a major reason to oppose his candidacy. But if he wins the caucuses, it becomes a lot harder for the national media - and the Republican Party - to treat him as such. In 2008, Paul held an alternate convention after the GOP denied him a speaking slot at its nominating convention. A caucus win would make such a snub impossible in 2012 - and could set the stage for a party-transforming run at the nomination.

Full CBS News coverage: Ron Paul

AP Photo/Chris Carlson

Rick Perry: The Texas governor is making a culture war-type play for Iowa social conservatives in hopes of salvaging a presidential campaign that fizzled thanks to a series of poor debate performances culminating in the "oops" moment heard round the world. Perry in polls of Iowa voters in August, shortly after entering the race, but has since fallen to the high single digits.

Perry has one big advantage on Bachmann and Santorum, the two candidates with whom he is competing for social conservative votes: A war chest that allows him to blanket the state with television ads. (His finish here will provide a big clue as to the degree to which paid media really matters.) If he doesn't do well here, he will be hard pressed to make the case that he still belongs in the race. That said, his war chest means he could probably do so anyway - and, potentially, start to pick up steam once the primary process shifts to the South.

Full CBS News coverage: Rick Perry

AP Photo/Matthew Cavanaugh

Mitt Romney: Romney has done a good job managing expectations about Iowa; even if he finishes second to Paul, it's not going to result in a lot of negative press for the former Massachusetts governor. Romney has not campaigned nearly as aggressively in Iowa as he did in 2008 - when Huckabee's win proved a major embarrassment - though he has had his team working to ensure that he still makes a respectable showing.

There are two nightmare outcomes for Romney: One, a Gingrich victory that reinvigorates the former House speaker's seemingly-flagging campaign, and two, a finish low enough that it prompts a new wave of stories about how little most Republicans seem to actually like Mitt Romney. Anything else will be good enough to get Romney to New Hampshire with relative ease, where the stakes for the ostensible frontrunner for the nomination are far higher.

Full CBS News coverage: Mitt Romney

AP Photo/Cliff Owen

Jon Huntsman: The former Utah governor has elected to ignore Iowa, concluding that he had little chance to compete there. That would seem to be a good calculus: He's at just four percent in the polls in the state. Huntsman's long shot bid is almost entirely focused on New Hampshire, but that doesn't mean he won't be paying close attention to what happens on January 3. If Romney takes a serious hit in Iowa, it could open the door for a surprise Huntsman victory in the Granite State - and kick start a campaign that has yet to really get off the ground.

Full CBS News coverage: Jon Huntsman

40 Photos

On the trail in Iowa

[Labbiegal]

Why, if Ron Paul (by your own admission) is the FRONTRUNNER, is Gingrich first in the photo, and FEATURED at the top of the page in his video with Paul buried WAY down under everyone? Hmmm? Is that news?

And why are you negating his frontrunner status saying it is due to the "fractured field"?

Why can't anyone write an article without complete OBVIOUS mainstream media bias AGAINST Ron Paul whom so many want as our next president?

[AdelbertAmes]

Everybody just look in the London Times. There is a great cartoon of President Obama opening his Christmas presents in the box is Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Rich Perry. Overjoyed the President announces "Just what I wanted!"

[tvwatcher5345]

with obama on the democratic side, if ron paul can make a showing on the republican side, i think people will see the pro-israeli neocons breakdown and cry. Cry krauthammer, krystol, feith, wolfowitz, podhoretz, judy miller, senor, kagan, lieberman, etc, etc

[xymox_or_bust]

Such a sad group of dying vampires. All the best to them.

Ron Paul 2012!

[SciverBryan]

1. The GOP in Congress + Republicans running for the Presidency = Senile leading the senile.

2. Tea Party Movement members running for the Presidency + Tea Party Movement members in Congress = Anarchists leading anarchists.

3. The Dems. The 99 per cent trying not go broke because of the ridiculous, stupid actions of items 1 and 2.



It is a sad note that any of these GOP ignoramuses qualify for their primaries.

[WannaBeGeekster]

I agree with you on all of those guys besides Ron Paul. I am hearing more and more Democrats that are wanting to vote for him. One man cannot change our country. That takes the House and Senate as well. So why not elect someone who will come in and hopefully clean house so we can get some sanity restored to Washington D.C.. Ron Paul is the 99% candidate. I hate to tell you. Obama is not the one. As much as I was intrigued in his claim of Change I have not seen one ounce of it. It just goes to show you that no matter what his intentions were he cannot make change by himself. I personally do not blame Obama for lack of change. But he definitely didn't do what he said he would do either.

[VictorAshesLoveChild]

OH SWEET JESU COULD THIS BE ANY FUNNIER?

THE ENTIRE REPUBLICAN PARTY, HAVING BENT ITS KNEE TO THE TEA PARTY FOOLS, IS NOW TWISTING SLOWLY, SLOWLY IN THE WIND.

It is such a GREAT time to be a liberal in this country....

[Eric_A_K]

Why don't you guys start acting like a real news station and report Facts that are NON-BIASED
If Ron Paul is racist, anti-Israel, and anti-gay, then why did he vote for MLK day, vote against condemning Israel for bombing Iraq's nuclear facility (going against his party and the president himself), and vote for repealing DADT? These are actions not consistent with the charges.

[WannaBeGeekster]

Thank you! I think that more Democrats who actually pay attention to what comes out of his mouth and then realize that he wants to give states the right to do what they please they realize very quickly that they can have the country they want to live in by changing their state laws and not forcing them on the rest of the country. It is the only way this country works. Forcing laws from the federal level on down DOES NOT WORK! I mean that was the whole point of the united States of America to begin with. We can still be a united nation but have a different set of laws that we live by. If you want mandated health care then get it passed in your state. Don't force me into the same situation. If I don't want mandated health care an it passes IN MY STATE then I am free to move to another state.

IT MAKES SENSE PEOPLE. Please see this and come to your senses. Ron Paul is my man and your man (liberal democrats). You just don't see it. You would prefer to force the country into submission instead of finding common ground amongst your fellow human beings. The two party system has been used for almost 100 years now to DIVIDE AND CONQUER! Please lets join together as one nation and elect the man who will solve all of our problems.

[cmart6]

The threat that Ron Paul poses to our national security, his desire to disarm America, and his acquiescence in an Iranian nuclear weapon should be the focus of the Iowa electorate.
The Obama-Paul line of accommodation, apology, and appeasement towards radical Islam and Iran. Paul is comfortable with an Iranian atomic bomb. His policy of preemptive surrender and submission to radical Islam is the blueprint for national suicide for the U.S. The un-Paul is Michele Bachmann. She is as smart as a whip and tougher than steel--the little lady with a spine of titanium. She is loved by patriotic Americans; she is hated by the jihadist's "useful idiots."

[WannaBeGeekster]

So Ron Pauls budget for the military is still more than every other nation in the world including China. How is that short sighting our national defense? Don't you realize that if we go into Iran that China and Russia will attack us? They have already said that they will do it. We are on the verge of starting another arms race and for what? Because Iran wants to protect itself from 300 nukes that Isreal has? Pakistan hates us more than Iran does yet you don't have a problem with them having Nukes? Don't you realize that Iran has several Jews in its parliament? Don't you realize that Judaism has been in Iran for over 30 CENTURIES? They have several synagogues in Iran as well. Iran is not worried about killing Jews. They are worried about Fascism like all sane people are worried about Fascism.

You my sir are the one who needs to make sure that you really understand how international politics work. If you want WWIII and it obviously sounds like you do then do us all a favor... Stop getting told what to think and actually do some research on what you are talking about before you open your mouth.

[kevjustice]

intrade.com gives these (approx)odds of winning pres: obama -50%, mitt- 30% ,newt 4%(lol). says republicans will never win popular vote with their favor-the-rich policy.

[Blackandtandog]

Oh no! The circus is coming to an end?

[answerman1949]

Excellent article. However, thanks to the passage of the National Defense Authorization Act, with of its authorization for US martial law as well as the authority to murder, torture or imprison FOREVER citizens of the united states, even the most hard-headed GOP voter will give Congressman Paul's candidacy a second look. Given the silence of his opponents and the vote by the majority of Republicans in Congress for TREASON, as defined by the Constitution, Congressman Paul is a VERY attractive alternative, indeed.

[SciverBryan]

Be careful what you which for Answerman. You have no idea what a Tea Party President would mean to this country. Sure Ron Paul seems crazy, unscrupulous, cantankerous, and down right stupid when it comes to what he would do to use if he wins. You can't make sense out of privitizing federal agenies and department. Nobody can since it will lead to citizens paying higher prices, resulting in more taxes and a fatter national debt. But the Repugnant Republican ticket is willing to elect anyone since if that person wins they will be under the control
of their funders AKA the Koch Brothers. They are anarchists making sure the super wealthy pay no taxes, they control all government and they can do as they please with their big oil business resulting in environmental disasters. They are a really terrible duo for Americas future.

The failure in logic that Tea Party Movement members provide is astounding.