December 21, 2011 11:23 AM

Ron Paul takes lead in latest Iowa poll

By
Corbett B. Daly
Topics
Campaign 2012

Republican presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul of Texas

(Credit: Charles Krupa)

Texas Rep. Ron Paul is now atop the field in Iowa of Republicans looking to unseat President Obama next year.

Paul has the support of 27.5 percent of likely voters for the Jan. 3 caucuses, which kick of the 2012 race for the Republican nomination for president in less than two weeks, according to a poll conducted by Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich finished a close second, with 25.3 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who took 17.5 percent.

Paul's support could be stronger than other candidates who have led in Iowa in the months since the August straw poll, which Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann won.

Dave Peterson, an associate professor of political science at Iowa State, said Paul's support is likely under represented by polling.

"His supporters are younger and more likely to reply on a cell phone, so he's probably going to perform better than his polling suggests. His supporters also are dedicated and will likely turn out on caucus night and not change their minds," Peterson said.

The poll showed that "the race still remains remarkably fluid" for the other candidates, Iowa State said.

About 37.8 percent of respondents said they were still deciding who to back, while another 34.1 percent said their support would best be characterized as "leaning toward" their candidate. Just 28.1 percent were firmly backing their choice.

Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG asked 740 registered Republicans and 200 registered independents about their current preferences in telephone interviews conducted between December 8-18. The results stem from the 333 of those polled who said they would probably attend the caucuses. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus five percentage points.


Add a Comment See all 161 Comments
by leftyintexas December 27, 2011 4:51 PM EST
WHO CARES IF HE WINS IN IOWA?...only the crazies.
Reply to this comment
by egoomega December 27, 2011 6:41 PM EST
i agree with the tone of your comment, but the overall thing is that it is an important step as it has potential to set a precedent for the rest of the states.
by 2happy2ride December 27, 2011 2:51 PM EST
by ge556 December 26, 2011 10:32 PM EST
He's also anti-science. He's a doctor who doesn't believe in evolution. How nutty can one be?
------------------------------------------------------
I'm no Paul supporter and he is "anti-" a lot of things. But, you DO know it's STILL called a THEORY? And that there are a growing number of scientists that are convinced, creation is the only explanation.
Look at nature and the natural balance of the animal kingdom and the change of seasons. To think it all continues to occur by happenstance is even more lunacy and certainly takes much more faith to believe in than does creation.
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by Fatesrider December 26, 2011 8:31 PM EST
One has to wonder how much corn silk the good folks in Iowa are smoking to have swung from Bachmann (way back when) to Paul. Obviously, all that genetically modified corn pollen floating around is affecting their judgement.
Reply to this comment
by scottedowner December 26, 2011 6:09 PM EST
What if Ron Paul Don"t Win Iowa ?

The Question is what happens if Ron Paul is not President ?
{ nothing }
we still live in Drama and the Economy wrote with War and Government Controls your House Hold !And Humanity will be Nomanity .
Ron Paul 2012 or no one at All !
Reply to this comment
by Fatesrider December 26, 2011 8:29 PM EST
Another incoherent and utterly illogical post from a proud member of the Cult of Paul.
by onerioi December 27, 2011 2:01 PM EST
I see that the best the opposition can do is resort to name calling.
by independent8 December 26, 2011 5:15 PM EST
The Right Wing GOP Presidential Candidates: all are religious right extremists.
Gingrich—serial philanderer, cheated on wives with cancer; half million dollar account at jewelry store; gay hater; flip flopper; advocates cutting taxes for wealthy and raising them for middle class; took millions from Fannie & Freddie as a lobbyist
Cain—sexual affairs with numerous women while married for 35 years; 9-9-9 plan to prop up wealthy and raise taxes on middle class; brain farts when interviewed
Perry—serial brain farter (OOPS!); barely got through college with D's and F's; on the take from whichever lobbyist/company will give him money; double dip pension while still working; wants to raise tax on middle and lower for wealthy; in bed with Big Oil
Bachman—vehemently anti gay; thinks we have an embassy in Iran; against birth control; takes stimulus money for her husband's business
Ron Paul—wants to legalize all drugs; wants to abolish the Federal Reserve and go to gold standard; would have done nothing in Libya; would have let Bin Laden alone; is a strict isolationist; wants to abolish most government departments; publishes racist newspapers.
Mit Romney—set up Obamacare in Massachusetts and said it was a great model; was for abortion before he was against it; thinks poor cut off is anyone making under $500,000/yr'; was for gays before he was against them; thinks cutting taxes for billionaires will create lots of jobs; is in bed with investment bankers on Wall street; in 5 minutes can support 3 different positions on the same issue.

Now, with a pathetic group like this, how could ANYONE vote GOP???
Reply to this comment
by kakawanga December 26, 2011 5:52 PM EST
It's people like you, who lit up the fire that's swarming over United States right now. Your description on each candidates are what the media has informed you, if you really do care about the 2012 election I suggest you research each and every candidate yourself.
by onerioi December 27, 2011 2:05 PM EST
Follow kakawanga's advice. Remember that much of what you read has been manipulated by our corporate-owned media. A fact: our government is considering a law that will allow our elected officials to indefinitely put you in prison without due process of law. Only one candidate stands against that abuse of power and for a government of, by, and for us.
by xila654 December 26, 2011 5:06 PM EST
I just cant see the Republican establishment embracing Ron Paul in any circumstance, he is the anti-establishment candidate, he will run as an independent and win by a huge margin, America is finally ready for a leader like Ron Paul
Reply to this comment
by ge556 December 26, 2011 10:32 PM EST
He's also anti-science. He's a doctor who doesn't believe in evolution. How nutty can one be?
by lampshadedude December 28, 2011 2:00 AM EST
ge556, you are a nut for even caring about an issue that should play no part in one's decision to vote or not vote for a candidate. where we come from is largely irrelevant. hth
by RickCain4150 December 25, 2011 11:39 AM EST
Newt Gingrich was never a serious candidate. He's just selling more books like Cain. It just goes to show the idiocy of the average Republican voter.
Reply to this comment
by nowarlybia December 24, 2011 2:44 PM EST
Ron Paul is who we want and who we need - Our Next President of the United states!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Reply to this comment
by maugustyn December 24, 2011 8:27 AM EST
Ron Paul 2012. There is no other candidate telling us the truth like Ron is. There is no other candidate who threatens the establishment/status quo/military industrial complex/federal reserve banksters like Ron Paul.
Reply to this comment
by onerioi December 27, 2011 2:08 PM EST
Let's also vote for a congress of like-minded individuals. I plan to vote for anyone but a Demopublican. I hope you'll join me.
by Nikos_Retsos December 24, 2011 8:20 AM EST
If Ron Paul takes lead in latest Iowa poll, that means that America is waking out of the slumber of constant foreign wars and constant economic disfranchisement and suffering at home! Is it because he wants to stop the war in Afghanistan and invest in America the $ 10 BILLIONS a month we waste in the black hole of Afghanistan? As far as I can discern, it is! Constant American warmongering for a decade has driven most American into poverty, and it has made military contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan multimillionaires! The Ron Paul difference is that all hard-core right wing republican candidates get their funding from the Military and Industrial Complex who benefits from the inflated defense budgets and military procurement, while Ron Paul gets his campaign help from young volunteers who want America to invest in America first! And that is the virtue in all philosophy and in all religions.

The problem with American politics is that the American warmongering propaganda is generated by the top 1% of American elite that owns the Military and Industrial Complex, and which profits from the $ "trillions" in annual military budget to run them. And the irony of it is that those who vote for the warmongering republican candidates complain when gasoline hits $ 4 a gallon. But they are so brainwashed by the constant war propaganda that they don't bother to know that the U.S. pays "$ 400 a gallon" for the gasoline it uses in Afghanistan! (Wall Street Journal, December 6, 2011) The U.S. uses millions of $ 400 gallons daily in Afghanistan, and those $ 400 for each gallons is paid from federal taxes the U.S.deducts out of their paychecks! Add to that the human cost in American and civilian Afghans deaths, and any sane person would see a blessing in Ron Paul's intention to put and end to this lunacy!

All of the above, then, beg for this obvious question: Does America needs a Mahatma Gandhi now? And the answer is: Yes, Absolutely, and Desperately! Warmongering has made America the most hated and most despised nation on earth. Ron Paul would make America admired and beloved abroad, and he -and us- would love to keep those $ TRILLIONS wasted now in wars here - in our pockets! And I call it: "Peace and Prosperity" - the Ron Paul way! Nikos Retsos, retired professor
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