Iowa voters see Gingrich, Romney as most electable

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Republican presidential candidate, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich on Monday, Nov. 21, 2011.

/ AP Photo

CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

If next month's the Iowa Republican caucus comes down to electability in the general election, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney appear to have a distinct advantage.

In a CBS News/New York Times poll released Tuesday, 31 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers said Gingrich had the best chance among the current GOP field to defeat President Barack Obama in 2012. Twenty-nine percent said Romney had the best chance.

Poll: Gingrich takes double-digit lead over Romney in Iowa

All other candidates polled in the single-digits on the electability question: Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 9 percent, Rep. Ron Paul with 6 percent, Rep. Michele Bachmann with 3 percent, and both Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum with 1 percent.

Among Tea Party supporters, the perception of Gingrich as the candidate best-equipped to defeat Mr. Obama is even more pronounced - 45 percent view him as having the best chances to beat Mr. Obama, compared with 19 percent for Romney.

The poll also found that the economy far outweighs social issues among Iowa caucus-goers - 71 percent said the economy will play a bigger factor in determining their vote, compared with 14 percent who said social issues would. Thirteen percent said they would weigh both equally.

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Even among white evangelicals, a Republican voter group that traditionally factors social issues more prominently in their voting decisions, economic issues matter more by a tally of 55 percent to 25 percent. Eighteen percent said they would weigh both equally.

The Iowa caucus will take place Jan. 3.

Read the complete poll results here.

CBS News and The New York Times conducted telephone interviews November 30 -December 5, 2011 with 642 registered voters who said they would definitely or probably attend the Republican caucus in Iowa. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus four points for caucus-goers.

The sample was drawn from two sources: the state of Iowa's registered voter list, and an RDD sample of cell phone interviews.

Results were weighted by probabilities of selection and by demographic characteristics to reflect the eligible caucus-goers on the Iowa voter list.

[MidwestMountainMan]

Evangelical conservatives, please be intellectually honest when choosing between Gingrich and Romney. Gingrich is at least as much of a flip-flopper as Romney. So scratch that as a deciding factor. According to Bob Jones University, Gingrich belongs to a cult (Catholic), and Romney belongs to a cult (Mormon). So scratch that as a deciding factor. If, after honestly weighing all of your other considerations, you decide on Gingrich, then I respect that.

[The_General_1968]

That's funny, the poll from the local newspaper in IOWA has Ron Paul in a close second place with 18% of the vote with the same criteria used in the poll.

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/04/iowa-poll-newt-gingrich-most-popular-gop-candidate/

Either this is a misprint or there's something fishy going on here...

[Overbay]

Neither Newt or Romney hold a candle to the integrity and wisdom of Ron Paul. Both of these candidates are easily swayed by the winds of the lobbyists. If you want to be serious about liberty then you need to be mentioning the only candidate who will make any bit of difference. We shouldn't be trying to get someone 'out' of the White House. We need to be getting someone 'in'

[formerusmcsgt1]

by marzpaul December 6, 2011 12:18 PM EST

He is the only candidate who knows that the banksters own this country and is willing to stand up to them and rein them in.
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Get real.

He wants to allow banks to all over the country to print their own currency.

[formerusmcsgt1]

by marzpaul December 6, 2011 12:18 PM EST
Ron Paul is the people's choice.
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You Paul people are always claiming support not reflected in any poll:


"I'd like you to think about the Republican nomination for president in the 2012 election. Please tell me if you would find [see below] to be an acceptable nominee for president from the Republican Party, or not."

"Texas Congressman Ron Paul"
11/28 - 12/1/11
Acceptable - 34% Unacceptable - 62% Unsure - 4%

[karek40]

My problem with Paul is he has been in congress forever and he spouts rhetoric I agree with but is chairman of the oversite of the federal reserve and continues to support the printing of money and increasing our debt. He is all talk.

[ThinkFreedom]

Clearly Gingrich and Romney - both tell you what you want to hear until you put them in office. They both are FOR issues before they're AGAINST them. Zero integrity. Zero change. There's only one candidate who has voted consistently and for the Constitution EVERY SINGLE TIME for 30+ years. RON PAUL. The media refuses to mention him because they can't get any dirt on him.

Ron Paul 2012

The only candidate who's political donations from the US Military outnumber the COMBINED donations of all military contributions to the other presidential candidates. You want to support our troops? Support their candidate.

[marzpaul]

Ron Paul is the people's choice. He has won all the the debates and the vast majority of the polls. Only brainwashed minions of the mainstream media do not know this.

He is the only candidate who knows that the banksters own this country and is willing to stand up to them and rein them in.

He is the only candidate who knows that the military industrial complex keeps these wars going for profit for themselves, big oil, and the banksters. He will end them all.

He is the only candidate who obeys his oath to protect and defend the constitution. He is the only one who uses it for it's intent and not a napkin.

The world is watching and praying we elect him so the horror that is the New World Order will end and there can at last be peace and prosperity.

[Quivley]

Clearly, the most electable and smartest choice for America's economy now and her future is Mitt Romney. Gingrich ha far too many skeletons in his closet. In a general election, he will be exposed.

[formerusmcsgt1]

by formerlyluvnut December 6, 2011 10:40 AM EST
I don't think ANYONE is going to beat President Obama...
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At this point, it would appear that the dem's biggest worry would be avoiding low turnout due to over confidence in a victory.

[formerusmcsgt1]

I'll admit that, over the last decade, the right's use of media concerned me. I'm referring to the degrading and insulting stream of comments from FNC and talk radio aimed at the dems.

As we see in this election, centrist candidates (like Huntsman)no longer have a chance in the GOP.

This results in their contenders being more finge in nature which makes them less appealing to Independents like myself.

And we Independents decide who wins and loses these days, not the dems or repubs.