In Iowa, the "Ron Paul factor" could loom large
Ron Paul answers a question during a campaign event, Nov. 18, 2011 at the Lawrence Community Center in Anamosa, Iowa.
/ Brian Ray,AP Photo/The Gazette
This article originally appeared on RealClearPolitics.
Ron Paul has long been the Rodney Dangerfield of the Republican presidential field: He just can't seem to get any respect.
Despite polling consistently within the top three or four candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, the libertarian-leaning congressman has not convinced most of the media and the other campaigns that he can reach beyond a dedicated group of supporters and become a serious threat to win the nomination.
But with a month to go before the Iowa caucuses, Paul is leaving an increasingly significant mark on the race.
On Wednesday, his campaign released a 2?-minute Web ad titled "Newt Gingrich: Serial Hypocrisy," which juxtaposed media commentary and Gingrich's own words to eviscerate the former House speaker.
In a campaign that has seen relatively few hard-hitting attack ads, Paul's takedown of the rising GOP front-runner was a potent reminder of Gingrich's myriad vulnerabilities and earned Paul admiration for its effectiveness.
"Wow Ron Paul. That is really well produced," tweeted Erick Erickson of the influential RedState.com. "I'm impressed." It was a reaction echoed by others who have not been Paul supporters.
At a New Hampshire campaign stop on Thursday, Paul demonstrated that he is willing to back up the tough ad with his own words: Gingrich is "a flip-flopper, so he can hardly be the alternative to Mitt Romney," he said, according to NBC News.
Paul's sharpened attacks seem designed primarily to cut into Gingrich's lead in the nation's first voting state of Iowa -- where Paul faces a do-or-die scenario.
Full CBS News coverage: Ron Paul
And the Texas congressman's prospects there indeed appear to be better, in many respects, than may be the case elsewhere: In a Bloomberg poll conducted last month, Paul was in a statistical three-way tie for the Hawkeye State lead.
He has slipped back in two subsequent polls, but Paul does enjoy one of the best organizations in the state -- which could prove particularly potent against competitors whose Iowa infrastructures are far less extensive than what has been seen in previous election cycles.
"Looking at our grass-roots activists that work really hard and door-knock and make calls, I feel pretty good about where we are," said Paul's Iowa vice chairman, A.J. Spiker. "There's a consistent message, and it's less government, and that's what the Republican Party is all about. And I'm not sure another candidate embodies that more than Ron Paul."
Among longtime observers of Iowa politics, there remains considerable concern, privately expressed, that Paul might actually win the caucuses -- a result that could make the state irrelevant in future cycles.
But Paul's nonconformist views on foreign policy and the still-engrained perception that he is unelectable threaten to hold him back, and his marginal media savvy is another potential drawback. Pressed on why he wanted to be president last month, for example, Paul refused to answer the question.
"I think he has reached his ceiling," said veteran Iowa Republican fundraiser Becky Beach. "I think he'll definitely have his core of extremely committed people, but I don't think people here think he has a real chance of going on and being the nominee and beating Obama."
Even if he does not win, Paul's impact on the outcome in Iowa will almost certainly be substantial, despite his reputation for attracting voters who would not otherwise take part in the process.
Though he had shown a willingness to attack other GOP opponents before his broadside against Gingrich, Paul has more or less left Mitt Romney alone. If the race in Iowa remains tight, Paul could become an accidental Romney ally by cutting into Gingrich's support.
But in a race that has seen as many shifting variables as this one, Paul retains the potential to surprise everyone -- especially if Iowa's particularly inclement weather is a factor on caucus night.
"If there is a snowstorm, Paul wins," said one state Republican insider.
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Well, mass hallucinations and delusion do occur.
Paul is certainly independent. there are several obvious examples of this, but I'll mention his views on foreign policy and how to deploy our military. And he has been consistent about it, which to my mind means he's ethical.
And in his ethics, his consistency, and his independent thinking, I admire him.
But we can't just roll up the carpet and retreat behind the national shores, pretending the entire planet outside Fortress America simply doesn't matter. That's a completely unrealistic view. Even the most wretched, small Third World country has to pay at least minimal attention to at least it's immediate neighbors. Even if we could somehow ignore those folks "over there," how can we ignore, at the very least, Canada and Mexico? And we probably want to keep some kind of eye on places such as Cuba and Venezuela, especially the latter.
While foreign policy aren't the only areas in which his intended policies are ones I simply can't support, they are among the most important. I genuinely wish he and I say eye-to-eye on those issues about which we differ, for the very qualities he has that you enumerated -- a sense of commitment to ethics, consistency, and independent thinking.
I won't be voting for him, even if he wins the nomination. And there's no rancor or indirect criticism of Ron Paul the man in that -- I suspect I would like him immensely were I have the chance to become acqquainted with him. I simply cannot support his candidacy.
In his 20 years in congress what has he accomplished? Any legislation? Any bills written with bipartisan sponsorship? What is his business experience, please don't even mention his medical practice, because delivering babies is NOT running a business? And does everyone agree that 9-11 was OUR fault? And how can his views on Iran be considered rational?
Believing and voting for Paul is analogous to an adult putting teeth under a pillow and hoping for something miraculous.
Who cares about Iran!!!! stop thinking like an idiot. We have nothing to in that region, if Israel has a problem with Iran, let them solve their problem it is not our business.
You are just another fool whose head has been washed by the media and silly politics.
The Ron Paul factor will and does loom large.
Ron Paul's views on foreign policy are the same as George Bush's views were before he was elected and co-oped.
No one but Paul.
In the meantime though, they'll keep mis-directing by saying Gingrich has 30 or 40%. They were saying the same thing about Giuliani in 2008.
"Among longtime observers of Iowa politics, there remains considerable concern, privately expressed, that Paul might actually win the caucuses -- a result that could make the state irrelevant in future cycles."
What kind of BS is that?
If someone who actually gives a damn about our nation's future wins, then it becomes irrelevant.
Got it?