Early 2010 Poll Gives GOP Slight Edge

By: Sergey Kadinsky
Topics: Campaign 2010

4762464A Gallup poll released today gives the Republicans a 48 percent to 44 percent edge over Democrats in a generic congressional ballot if the 2010 elections were held today. The Republicans have been inching closer to the lead after trailing the Democrats by six points in a similar poll conducted last July.

"Over the course of the year, independents' preference for the Republican candidate in their districts has grown," Gallup writes in the press release. The poll was conducted after Republican wins earlier this month in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races.

Like the new governors-elect, the party was boosted in the poll by independent voters, who strongly favored the Republicans 52 to 30 percent. Among base supporters, party loyalty remains high, with 91 percent of Democratic registered voters preferring a Democratic candidate and 93 percent of Republican voters preferring a Republican.

It should be noted that while this kind of poll shows momentum for Republicans ahead of the 2010 elections, the poll does not take into account specific preferences within a congressional district or for particular candidates. The 2010 elections consist of separate House and Senate campaigns rather than an overall national vote.

In addition, Gallup notes that this poll did not factor in the anticipated voter turnout a year from now. The poll release says turnout models will be included in future polls as the 2010 elections get closer in time.

"Given that Republicans usually have a turnout advantage, if normal turnout patterns prevail in the coming election, prospects for a good Democratic showing appear slim," Gallup says in the release. "Of course, the elections are still nearly 12 months away and conditions could shift back in the Democrats' favor over this time."

Results are based on telephone interviews with 894 registered voters, aged 18 and older, conducted Nov. 5-8, 2009. The maximum margin of sampling error is ?4 percentage points. Cell phone users who did not have a land line were also included in this poll.

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by Cattzen November 12, 2009 10:10 AM EST: Lets all return Congress to the Party of ?No? (as in do nothing), Corruption, Endless War, Record Government $pending to Private Multinational Corporations with tax free offshore Bank Accounts, Pollution, and of course OIL!, OIL!, OIL! (drill baby drill).

Sound like a good plan?; Reply to this comment

by thebob-bob November 11, 2009 4:48 PM EST

And why would anyone want an anti-government party to run the government? Especially given their track record over the last 30 years?

Fear, Hatred, Distortion, Distraction and Division is all they've ever offered. Never trust a Republican with the economy or foreign affairs.

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by the74blaster November 11, 2009 11:13 PM EST: Well stated!

The only reason for this turn is the non stop attacks on Obama since day one. Its amazng how quickly the people forget the catastropic results of Bush's 8 years and accept the GOP position to blame Obama for Bush's mistakes.

What a great situation. You can totally wreck the nations economy, bankrupt the government and ten pass the buck onto another pesident.

What a great role model to show personal accoutability for your actions!

by Empire-George November 11, 2009 4:27 PM EST

by steeepe November 11, 2009 4:09 PM EST
If you think that 8 years of neglect and failed policies can be totally turned around in less than a year,
___________________

Take a peek at the Dow 10 year chart.....we didn't have 8 years of bad economic times.....the recession only started approx. 2006, prior to that we had sustained growth and good economic conditions.

So quit with this 8 years garbage.....how about 3 years since the Democrats took Congress that we have been in recession.

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by steeepe November 11, 2009 4:42 PM EST: Try reading this article in Newsweek about the last ten years: http://2010.newsweek.com/essay/party-like-its-1999.html. The recession didn't start with the Democrats.

by velma179 November 11, 2009 4:01 PM EST

Oh well...

Polls, polls, polls -- they are going to go back and forth depending on the parameters of the questions, etc.

It should be an interesting year.

PS: 44% + 48% is only 92%.... so that silly little 8% that didn't choose to "take a side" DOES have relevance.

And -- the party that is "out of power" always has a greater momentum in the first Congressional election year after a Presidential year election. This doesn't mean the Republicans will "take back" Congress, but if history repeats and the Dems lay back, they will gain seats.

We'll see...

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by Empire-George November 11, 2009 4:29 PM EST: by velma179 November 11, 2009 4:01 PM EST

You touched on a very interesting historical fact, that many Presidents have lost control of congress, after their first year in office, when their party had control.....(Reagan, Clinton, others)

by Vanoy November 11, 2009 3:49 PM EST

The left-wing loons are foaming at the mouth as the Republicans and so-called "moderates" are coming back into favor with the American electorate. Ten months (count 'em) and the liberals have run up the national debt to staggering proportions, ruined the auto industry, stimulated themselves but not the economy, Fouled up our banking system, gummed up the housing market, driven the unemployment figures to 10.2 percent (highest since the Great Depression and, now, seeking to mess up the Medicare Program.

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by steeepe November 11, 2009 4:09 PM EST: If you think that 8 years of neglect and failed policies can be totally turned around in less than a year, you must not live in the U.S. According to most economists, without the stimulus, the U.S. would have crashed, but you discount that. You think liberals ruined the auto industry? Based on what? So-called "free trade" has ruined America, and that was championed by conservatives, although Clinton fell for it. Conservatives apparently want a finance-based economy rather than have any manufacturing here. Power plants, solar cells, everything our military needs, all made overseas thanks to you wonderful conservatives. All you have to offer is "lower taxes" on the wealthy. Hasn't worked yet.


by writer10 November 11, 2009 5:28 PM EST: Ummm...while there is some truth to that statement, it's a shared responsibilty as Clinton signed NAFTA...why doesn't Obama spend some time reversing some of these ridiculous rulings to bring jobs back in to the US. Same question applies to why do we rely on foreign oil as opposed to being self sufficient...Lobby groups...that's why

by briannorwood November 11, 2009 3:33 PM EST

Don't get your hopes up GOP. The recession is over and jobs will be coming back in 2010 and health care will be passed.

A little good news and the Dems will be in the driver's seat.

Hopefully, we'll get a hand from Palin, Hannity, Limbaugh and Beck!

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by ohiopolitico November 11, 2009 4:02 PM EST: Recession is over? Hmmmmmm.. you must be one of those very rich democrats who lives in their own liberal bubble or something. If you read a newspaper you'll see there are still thousanda and thousands losing their jobs.

by steeepe November 11, 2009 2:11 PM EST

Didn't anybody learn anything from 8 years of Bush and the GOP? Look where we are now as a country because of failed GOP policies. Why would rational people want to inflict that again on the country? Makes no sense. And who are those "Godly" people? The right-wing lunatics that want to force everybody to conform to their ideas? The world would be better off if people weren't deluded by religion. Or at least they could keep their delusions to themselves...

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by PaGuy1960 November 11, 2009 2:57 PM EST: Yea we learned that giving you libs 10 months can only make things worse. Thanks for the help...


by lmartink November 11, 2009 3:02 PM EST: People are just generally unhappy. We have seen a needless war in Iraq prolonged for far too long. And a losing situation in Afghanistan. We have been through a stunning financial collapse, and nearly 30 years of dismal leadership.

The Republicans don't have to lead to pick up points. All they have to do is what they do best -- sit back and gripe, complain, and offer arrogant asinine opinions. They don't have to come up with any real plans to deal with things. People would easily find fault with more tax breaks for huge greedy corporations and the wealthy elite.

by starleo146 November 11, 2009 1:40 PM EST

Gallup poll released today gives the Republicans a 48 percent to 44 percent edge over Democrats in a generic congressional ballot if the 2010 elections were held today. The Republicans have been inching closer to the lead after trailing the Democrats by six points in a similar poll conducted last July.

"Over the course of the year, independents' preference for the Republican candidate in their districts has grown," Gallup writes in the press release. The poll was conducted after Republican wins earlier this month in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races.

mY gOD HAVEN'T WE BEEN THROUGH ENOUGH BECAUSE OF REPUBLICANS AND THERE IDEALS WITH BIG BUSINESS AND NO RIGHTS FOR THE REST OF US. i CAN'T BELIEVE THE ELECTORATE WOULD EVEN CONSIDER TO VOTE FOR REPUBLICANS IN 2010. THESE VOTES IN VIRGINIA, NEW JERSEY, NEW YORK WERE ALL LOCAL NATIONALLY WE WILL NEVER VOTE REPUBLICAN AGAIN I CANNOT BELIEVE AFTER THE MESS WE ARE IN ANY AMERICAN WOULD BELIEVE THEM AGAIN. LOOK HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE SITUATION WITH HEALTH CARE. LIES, AND MORE LIES

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by mav547166 November 11, 2009 2:12 PM EST: I guess the mental health professionals are in for a good year with all the liberals coming in to up their prescription.