Politics Today: The Battle Over the Stimulus

Politics Today is CBSNews.com's inside look at the key stories driving the day in politics, written by CBS News Political Director Steve Chaggaris:

** Tallying the jobs saved by the Recovery Act...

** Health Care reform still a tough battle...

** More than 30 politicians face ethics investigations...

5356466PRESIDENT OBAMA TODAY: The Recovery and Transparency Board will release its reports detailing how the economic stimulus plan's funds have been spent through Sept. 30 and how effective the plan has been in terms of job creation, with the White House claiming the plan "has created and saved at least 1 million jobs." More on that below...

President Obama, meantime, meets with the Joint Chiefs of Staff to discuss Afghanistan and Pakistan "in one of the final steps before deciding whether to send thousands more US troops to war," writes Agence France-Presse's Stephen Collinson.

"Obama invited the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the heads of the branches of the US armed services, to the secure White House Situation Room to hear their input on his war plan and deliberations on troop numbers, officials said.

"He will hold the meeting a day after his poignant visit to witness the return to home soil of fallen Americans from Afghanistan, after which he said the heavy sacrifice of US soldiers was weighing on his decision-making...

"Expectations are mounting that Obama could reveal his answer to McChrystal's request before he leaves for an eight-day trip to Asia on November 11. But he is believed unlikely to reveal his decision whether to reinforce the 68,000 US troops in the country before the Afghan run-off election on November 7."

STIMULUS: The stimulus reports are expected to be released early this afternoon and administration officials said, "we anticipate that these reports will credit the Recovery Act with directly creating or saving about 650,000 jobs.

"Because these reports show that less than half of the spending through that date created or saved about 650,000 jobs, they confirm government and private forecaster's estimates that overall Recovery Act spending has created and saved at least 1 million jobs."

The officials also repeated their rebuttal to an Associated Press investigation that suggested the jobs numbers were "overstated by thousands."

"Questions raised recently about data quality have been based on a sliver of the overall reports representing just 2 percent of Recovery Act spending posted just 3 business days after we received them," the officials said. "Needless to say, we have made a lot of progress in the subsequent days sharpening the data so that visitors to the site can be confident in what they see."

The Republican National Committee is pre-butting the Recovery.gov release with a memo calling the report a "'Trick or Treat' Jobs Report" and criticizes the Obama administration for "manufacturing job numbers out of thin air."

"Today's release from the White House will be the fourth job report in the last two months," writes RNC Research Director Jeff Berkowitz. "With a pattern of these White House 'jobs created or saved' reports being published in close proximity to releases of real data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (showing continuing job loss and rising unemployment), it is clear the Obama Administration is trying to cover up economic reality by manufacturing job numbers out of thin air.

"Even though the White House is scared of reality, they're not afraid to fight hard to ignore it. Obama's top aide overseeing the stimulus attacked yesterday's Associated Press story as 'misleading.' But ... it's the Obama Administration that has been misleading the American people as these White House reports have been fraught with errors and the job estimates are questionable at best."

Wall Street Journal's James R. Hagerty and Jon Hilsenrath, "Stimulus Fueld Much of Expansion": "The U.S. economy would have turned in a far worse performance in the third quarter without help from the federal government. Now the question is whether growth can continue without that support. Congress and the White House aren't yet ready to put that issue to the test. On Thursday, the Obama administration endorsed lawmakers' efforts to extend tax credits for home buyers for another five months and to make them available to more people."

HEALTH CARE: "House Democrats on Thursday closed in on the votes they need to pass sweeping healthcare legislation, as party leaders introduced a 1,990-page bill designed to guarantee near-universal coverage for the first time in the nation's history," report the Los Angeles Times' Noam N. Levey and Janet Hook.

"The legislation, which House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) officially unveiled in a ceremony outside the Capitol, represents a milestone for Democrats and advocacy groups…

"The House plan would cover an additional 36 million people by 2019, leaving only 4% of the nation without coverage, compared with the estimated 17% who do not have insurance now, according to a preliminary analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. ...

"Pelosi and her lieutenants have been working for months to find the 218 Democratic votes they need to get a bill through the House, negotiating a series of compromises that form the backbone of the legislation they introduced Thursday. The revised bill swayed a number of wavering Democrats, convincing House leaders that they had enough support to move ahead."

"However, it was telling that of the 100-odd lawmakers surrounding Pelosi, few if any belonged to the conservative, 52-member Blue Dog Democratic coalition," adds McClatchy Newspapers' David Lightman. "They'll be crucial to her bill's success.

"Still, House Democratic Caucus Chairman John Larson, D-Conn., said flatly: 'We've got 218,' the number of votes needed for passage. The House, which has 256 Democrats, 177 Republicans and two vacancies, is expected to debate the bill next week.

"No Republicans are expected to support the bill…

"Blue Dogs wanted to hear from constituents, many of whom are more conservative than those represented by most Democrats. 'I have both sides of the health care debate well-represented in my district,' said Rep. Allen Boyd, D-Fla."

Bloomberg News' James Rowley and Kristin Jensen, "House Faces Fight With Industry, Abortion Foes Over Health Plan": "Even after House lawmakers watered down their version of the public option, they face opposition from groups who have backed overhaul efforts. The Business Roundtable, which says its member companies provide health benefits for more than 35 million people, said it can't support the House bill. ... Michigan Democrat Bart Stupak contends that 40 members would unite to block House consideration of the legislation unless the abortion issue is resolved or they are given a chance to introduce an amendment during floor debate."

Meantime, "A major point of contention between the House and the Senate is how to pay for the new coverage, to be provided by expanding eligibility for Medicaid and by subsidizing insurance for low- and middle-income people," the New York Times' Robert Pear and David M. Herszenhorn report.

"The Senate bill would impose an excise tax on high-premium insurance policies provided by employers. The House bill would impose a surtax on high-income people — couples with adjusted gross incomes over $1 million a year and individuals over $500,000.

"Congressional tax analysts said the surtax would raise $460 billion over 10 years. As originally proposed, the surtax had thresholds of $350,000 for couples and $280,000 for individuals…

Senators of both parties dislike the surtax. But labor unions oppose the tax on 'Cadillac health plans,' the biggest revenue-raiser in the Senate bill."

Politico's David Rogers sat down with Pelosi to discuss yesterday's announcement. "The bill rolled out Thursday is weaker than many progressives — including Pelosi — had once hoped for, but her advice is to 'declare victory' and recognize that this is not the last word.

"'On any given day, success that upsets business as usual in Washington can be perishable. I don't want to get too bogged down,' Pelosi told POLITICO in an interview Thursday afternoon. 'We are not passing a bill, shutting the door, turning out the lights and walking away. We will have other legislation.'

"Nor is she much open to prolonging the public option insurance debate by allowing a floor debate on an amendment to insist on a more robust version than the one now in the House bill.

"'I'm not big on showing weakness. It's not my thing,' she said in the interview. 'I don't like to have predictable losses.'"

Wall Street Journal's Alicia Mundy, "Drug Makers Face Tough Measures": "The House health-care bill presents more problems for drug makers than legislation in the Senate, but it gives the medical-device industry better breaks. The variations in the bills underscore why health-care companies have been lobbying vigorously on Capitol Hill. Billions of dollars are at stake, depending on which version is adopted."

2009 RACES: New Jersey Governor: "Rudy Giuliani yesterday jumped into the nasty political fight across the Hudson -- calling New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine a 'failure' and urging an independent candidate to withdraw and clear the way for Republican Chris Christie," reports the New York Post's Jennifer Fermino.

"Giuliani said he wants independent hopeful Chris Daggett to quit and lend his support to Christie, whose poll numbers have dropped amid rising support for the third-party candidate.

"'I would think he [Daggett] would not want to be the reason why New Jersey has someone like Jon Corzine for governor for the next four years, who wants to raise taxes, raise fees and basically cave in to special interests,' the former mayor told The Post.

"Giuliani is stumping for Christie today and tomorrow in Jersey."

New York Times' David M. Halbfinger and David Kocieniewski, "A Rivalry as Strained as New Jersey's Finances": "In separate interviews in recent days with The New York Times, the two rivals made no apologies for the ugly tone of the campaign, offered markedly different visions for how to shape the state's highest court, complained about their depictions in each other's commercials, and made it clear that they shared little mutual respect or admiration.

"Mr. Corzine said he rued having supported Mr. Christie's nomination for United States attorney when he was a senator because, he contended, Mr. Christie politicized the job and used it as a launching pad. 'New information, new conclusion,' he said.

"Mr. Christie, somewhat theatrically, struggled for several moments to name three things the governor had done right. 'Let me think,' he said. 'Um ... I would probably say I think over all his prosecutorial appointments have been good.'"

Virginia Governor: "With the final days of campaigning underway in the Virginia governor's race, Republican Bob McDonnell hopes to hold on a lead that polls show he has, while Democrat Creigh Deeds hopes a letter from the president will bring out young voters," reports WTOP's Hank Silverberg.

"More than 330,000 Virginians will get the letter from President Barack Obama over the next few days.
George Mason University Political analyst Steve Farnsworth says these surge voters are under 30 and 'very Democratic in their loyalties. They voted about 2 to 1 for Obama.'

"The letters also will target Democrats who are African American.

"'If Deeds can get those voters to the poll, with perhaps Obama's help, the numbers could look very different on election day,' Farnsworth says.

"A Roanoke College survey finds McDonnell leading by 17 points."

Washington Times' Sarah Abruzzese, "Money, missteps cost Deeds in polls for gubernatorial race": "Virginia state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds defeated better-funded, better-known rivals in the Democratic gubernatorial primary and led his Republican challenger, Robert F. McDonnell, in early polls.

"But since the unofficial start of the campaign season on Labor Day, Mr. Deeds has trailed Mr. McDonnell by as many as 18 percentage points in a recent survey - prompting the question 'What happened?'

"'It's money and how they spent it,' said Deeds spokesman Mike Gehrke. 'Bob McDonnell has run more negative ads in the past several weeks than we've run ads in total.'

"According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Mr. Deeds spent $10 million on radio and television ads this year, including the $1 million spent during the primary. Mr. McDonnell, who did not have a primary opponent, spent $9.6 million."

NY-23 Special Election: "The Republican showed her experience, the Conservative compared himself to Ronald Reagan, and the Democrat said he won't be influenced by special interests in the first debate among all three candidates in New York's 23rd Congressional race," writes the Associated Press' Valerie Bauman.

"Conservative Doug Hoffman and Democratic nominee Bill Owens had missed several debates and candidate forums before Thursday's debate at WSYR-TV studios in Syracuse. Republican Dierdre Scozzafava attended all of them.

"Republican registration outnumbers Democrats by 45,000 in the sprawling, upstate, 11-county district, but President Barack Obama carried it by 5 points in 2008. The issues, rather than party labels, may ultimately decide the race."

HOUSE ETHICS: "House ethics investigators have been scrutinizing the activities of more than 30 lawmakers and several aides in inquiries about issues including defense lobbying and corporate influence peddling, according to a confidential House ethics committee report prepared in July," report the Washington Post's Ellen Nakashima and Paul Kane.

"The report appears to have been inadvertently placed on a publicly accessible computer network, and it was provided to The Washington Post by a source not connected to the congressional investigations. The committee said Thursday night that the document was released by a low-level staffer.

"The ethics committee is one of the most secretive panels in Congress, and its members and staff members sign oaths not to disclose any activities related to its past or present investigations. Watchdog groups have accused the committee of not actively pursuing inquiries; the newly disclosed document indicates the panel is conducting far more investigations than it had revealed."


Meantime, "Nearly half the members of a powerful House subcommittee in control of Pentagon spending are under scrutiny by ethics investigators in Congress, who have trained their lens on the relationships between seven panel members and an influential lobbying firm founded by a former Capitol Hill aide," adds the Post's Carol D. Leonnig.

"The investigations by two separate ethics offices include an examination of the chairman of the Appropriations subcommittee on defense, John P. Murtha (D-Pa.), as well as others who helped steer federal funds to clients of the PMA Group. The lawmakers received campaign contributions from the firm and its clients. A document obtained by The Washington Post shows that the subcommittee members under scrutiny also include Peter J. Visclosky (D-Ind.), James P. Moran Jr. (D-Va.), Norm Dicks (D-Wash.), Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) , C.W. Bill Young (R-Fla.) and Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.).

"The document also indicates that the House ethics committee's staff recently interviewed the staff of Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) about his allegation that a PMA lobbyist threatened him in 2007 when he resisted steering federal funds to a PMA client. The lobbyist told a Nunes staffer that if the lawmaker didn't help, the defense contractor would move out of Nunes's district and take dozens of jobs with him."

ALSO:

LA Times' Richard Simon, "Congress bucks Obama on spending cuts"

USA Today's Mimi Hall, "Obama shows pragmatic side as president"

Wall Street Journal's Stephen Power, "No Deal: Chamber Chief Battles Obama"

LA Times' Jim Puzzanghera, "Geithner makes a pitch for regulation of financial industry"