Obama's Poll Numbers: What it All Means

By: Steve Chaggaris
Topics: Polling

(CBS/iStockphoto)

If you're a political junkie and you happened upon a few of the major opinion polls that were released Thursday, you might be a little confused.

Ipsos: "Obama's Approval Rating Holds Steady at 58%"

Gallup: "Obama Job Approval Edges Up to 56% - Rating up from administration low point of 52% early last week"

Quinnipiac: "Obama's Approval Drops To 50 Percent, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds"

Naturally, anyone would be confused after seeing these three headlines.

Is President Obama in huge political trouble? Or do a majority of Americans approve of his job performance? Is he up, down or holding steady? What's the deal?

The simple answer is: who knows?

What we do know is that the Ipsos and Gallup polls are in line with other recent polls - including the CBS News/New York Times poll from last week - which show his approval rating hovering in the mid-to-high 50s.

Maybe, perhaps, Quinnipiac is onto something? It's worth watching to see if other polls start to show a significant downward trend. This could be the first indicator of Mr. Obama really sinking. Then again, it's as important to remember that it could simply be just an anomaly, however.

So, before buying into the overexcited analysis of specific polls and the resulting predictions of what will happen down the road because of said poll, it should be understood that drawing any larger conclusions, especially about the future, based on any single poll, is pure speculation, plain and simple.

Politics Daily's Walter Shapiro recently put it perfectly: "It is ludicrous to argue that polls taken during the first summer of a new presidency are an infallible predictor of anything. Like the stock market, political numbers fluctuate. In truth, most individual surveys are perishable – seeming wizardly windows into the future that are seer today and gone tomorrow. But the weight of polling over a period of months does help to illuminate larger political trends."

During last year's political campaigns, some poll watchers got into the habit of averaging polls together in an attempt to get a better feeling of how candidates were doing. Pollsters cringe at this, mainly because it's a true mixture of apples and oranges: mixing different methodologies and lumping reputable and less-than-reputable polls together. To the average political watcher, though, it helped give a general sense of where candidates stood in the eyes of voters.

Without actually pulling out the calculator, trends are visible by simply looking at various polls over the course of time - especially highly-reputable polls.

And some of those trends can be found by digging a bit deeper into the specific questions asked in these polls.

(AP)

Take health care, for instance: as the debate has heated up in recent weeks -- and Democrats and the president have had to play defense on the issue -- his numbers have consistently softened.

His approval rating on his handling of health care reform hovers in the low-to-mid 40s (39 percent in today's Quinnipiac poll), steadily dropping from the high-40s to low-50s just a couple of months ago.

Same goes for the economy: in April and May he was in the high-50s to low-60s; now he's consistently polling 10 points less than that.

Do you want real proof that these numbers are evidence of a trend? Simply check out what the president has been saying and doing recently.

Week of July 20: President Obama held health care-related events Monday-Thursday, and his weekly address on Saturday was on health care.

Week of July 27: President Obama held health care-related events Tuesday and Wednesday and an economy-related event on Friday. His weekly address on Saturday was about the economy.

The moral of the story: any given political poll is just a small part of the vista. Multiple polls over the course of time, evidenced by the reaction of the polls' subjects, is the best way to judge where politicians stand in the eyes of voters.

Steve Chaggaris is CBS News' Political Director. You can read more of his posts in Hotsheet here.

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by becki24 August 9, 2009 10:08 PM EDT: I'm Independent and can't believe how far left Obama is. He's the most intolerant president I've seen yet. I don't see how you can spend like Obama is doing yet continue to blame Bush. I want to see HC regulations and caps on law suits. Let's start there, why the rush for overhaul? It would be cheaper to insure unemployed and under insured through medicaid and start regulating waste. I've been an RN for the past 12 yrs and I can tell you a bandaid costs $10 once it's filtered through the big gov spending machine. Fix waste and overspending, start there.; Reply to this comment

by zonkzilla August 7, 2009 7:43 AM EDT

What do the latest poll numbers mean?
Absolutely nothing.
All polls are nothing but manure.
Anyone who bases their opnions on what polls say is a total idiot.

Reply to this comment


by USA_Constitution August 7, 2009 2:01 PM EDT: I'll remember your comment - when and if Obama's numbers go up any in the future...which I doubt.


by platteman August 7, 2009 6:49 AM EDT: Obama is just the like guy who smokes a cigerate after he has finished screwing his mistress, the american public.; Reply to this comment


by jab232 August 7, 2009 6:03 AM EDT: The poll numbers mean Obama is doing a lot of hard things. Polls are interesting. If a poll shows a certain percentage unhappy with Obama's handling of health care, it doesn't show how many of that number are unhappy because they want a single payer system, they don't think he is doing enough. So much of the media interprets the number as if all those people are opposed to health care reform. In fact, a portion of them want Obama to go farther. The polls show most of us feel President Obama is working hard to try to help ordinary people, and that's a lot better than the corporation-favored government we had the last eight years.; Reply to this comment

by doveab August 7, 2009 3:01 AM EDT

what it means is smart Americans who voted for BO have buyers remorse - many democrats are shocked and turning against Obama's ilk. Yes, he is tanking because of bad policy, period. Anti-American policies. As a result, the silent majority in this nation is concerned and angry ---they has woken and are fiercely growing. Furthermore, to see the racist LEFTIST fringe of the Obama drones call "them" old, lily white, angry mobs is purely insulting --and disgusting.... and has killed any chance of Obama next term. Mark my words.

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by nextgenman09 August 7, 2009 4:38 AM EDT: Yawn. You are eventually going to have to come to grips with the fact that America will never return to the RINOpublican Past. Its long gone. America has moved on.


by cool1207 August 7, 2009 1:32 AM EDT: I think Polling does reflect real American people. Americans people like Obama as person, May not like his policy that much specially, congress leader and senator leader because his policy pull away American from what real American is. Also, American people are highly individual, that's why we are only national don't have universal health care. Remember two thing never changed, God never change, human nature never change regardless religious you have or not. Also, house price is down and everything else is up. A lots of people are not very happy and tired of government spending. Too much negative is on the news and can't watch the news and very bias, only HGTV is better program to watch.; Reply to this comment

by woeisme1 August 7, 2009 12:32 AM EDT

And all this todo from you republicans about one (1) poll that gave Obama his lowest approval rating. You conviently forgot to mention that two other (and more actually) polls have Obama as high as 58%.

But no matter the facts as usual. As long as you guys can bash Obama about something, anything, you are happy.

Such good little puppets of the National Fascist Republican Anti-American Party you all are. Rush is so proud I'm sure.

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by conversefive August 7, 2009 3:18 AM EDT: The polls mean nothing to me. My gripe is not with the poll results at all. I could care less about the polls. My gripe is with the MSM who produce them, who also call themselves fair and balanced, simply for the purpose of justifying their pandering to their demagogue and your president, Mr. Obama. At least on FoxNews you expect you get. These so-called journalists at CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN try to pretend they are objective when they really aren't at all, especially when we have seen 13, get that? -- 13 mainstream media moguls leave their positions to join the White House staff.


by becki24 August 9, 2009 10:26 PM EDT: Stop insulting the republican party as if they're all war criminals. I'm an Independent and I can't believe how nasty Democrats can be. I haven't really been paying attention but now that I am it's shocking. Far lefts seem to lack common sense and are down right nasty.

by woeisme1 August 7, 2009 12:25 AM EDT

I have a question for all you anti-american, hate healthcare reform republicans. I can remember a few months back you neo-cons bible thumpers were spewing your intolerance on these boards when the gay marriage and gay rights discussions were in the news. I can distinctly remember many of you stating that just because the gay rights advocates had organized marches and protests did'nt make them right.

Now you guys are having another version of your rediculous tea party charade and are amassing protests regarding healtcare. Tell me. What difference is there between you bible thumpers and the gay rights people? It's okay to shout and protest as long as you're shouting about conservative issues is that it?

That must be it. You guys are the biggest hypocrits in this world.

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by conversefive August 7, 2009 3:01 AM EDT: You really need to learn how to spell.


by SaveAmerica89 August 7, 2009 12:12 AM EDT: I can't believe the American people are willing to let the govt control our most important asset---our health.FACTS ABOUT THE BILL--THAT THE MAJORITY OF OUR ELECTED OFFICIALS HAVEN'T EVEN READ:

Pg 22 mandates the Government will audit books of all employers that self insure. Can you imagine what that will do to small businesses? Every one will abandon ?self insurance? and go on Government insurance. So when Obama says that there will still be private health care, it?s simply a lie: this mandate will force employers to abandon their private plans.
Pg 30 a Government committee (good luck with that!) will decide what treatments/benefits a person may receive.
Pg 29 lYOUR HEALTHCARE WILL BE RATIONED! (We all knew this, because health care is rationed in Canada and Britain, but Obama kept saying it would not be).
Pg 42 of HC Bill ? The Health Choices Commissioner will choose your HC Benefits for you. You will have no choice!
PG 50 Section 152 - HC will be provided to ALL non US citizens, illegal or otherwise.
Pg 58 HC Bill ? Government will have real-time access to individual?s finances and a National ID Healthcard will be issued!
Pg 59 HC Bill lGovernment will have direct access to your bank accts for election funds transfer
PG 65 Sec 164 is a payoff subsidized plan for retirees and their families in Unions & community organizations (read: ACORN).
Pg 72 Lines 8-14 Government will create an HC Exchange to bring private HC plans under Government c
PG 85 Line 7 HC Bill - Specifics of Benefit Levels for Plans = The Government will ration your Healthcare!
PG 91 l - Government mandates linguistic appropriate services. Example - Translation for illegal aliens.
PG 85 Specifics of Benefit Levels for Plans. AARP members - your Health care WILL be rationed.
-PG 102 Medicaid Eligible Individuals will be automatically enrolled in Medicaid. No choice.
P124 No company can sue Government on price fixing. No ?judicial review? against Government Monopoly.
pg 127 Doctors/ AMA - The Government will tell YOU what you can earn.
Pg 145 An Employer MUST auto enroll employees into public option plan. NO CHOICE.
Pg 126 Employers MUST pay for HC for part time employees AND their families.
Pg 149 ANY Employer with payroll $400k & above who does not provide public option pays 8% tax on all payroll.
Pg 167 ANY individual who doesn?t have acceptable HC according to Government will be taxed 2.5% of income.
Pg 170 HC Bill Any NONRESIDENT Alien is exempt from individual taxes. (Americans will pay.)
Pg 195 HC Bill -officers & employees of HC Admin (the GOVERNMENT) will have access to ALL Americans? finances and personal records.
PG 203 Line 14-15 HC - ?The tax imposed under this section shall not be treated as tax? Yes, it says that.
Pg 239 Government will reduce physician services for Medicaid. Seniors, low income, poor affected.
Pg 241 ? Doctors ? doesn?t matter what specialty ? will all be paid the same.
PG 253 Government sets value of Doctor?s time, professional judgment, etc. Literally, value of humans.
PG 265 Sec 1131Government mandates & controls productivity for private HC industries.
PG 268 Sec 1141 Federal Government regulates rental & purchase of power driven wheelchairs.
PG 272 SEC. 1145. TREATMENT OF CERTAIN CANCER HOSPITALS - Cancer patients - welcome to rationing!
Page 280 Sec 1151 The Government will penalize hospitals for what Government deems preventable readmissions.
Pg 298 Doctors who treat a patient during initial admission that results in a readmission - Government will penalize you.
Pg 317 OMG!! PROHIBITION on ownership/investment. Gov tells Doctors what/how much they can own.
Pg 317-318 PROHIBITION on expansion - Government will mandate hospitals cannot expand.
pg 321 2-13 Hospitals have opportunity to apply for exception BUT community input required. Can u say ACORN?!
Pg335 Government mandates establishment of outcome-based measures which IS Health care rationing.
Pg 341 Lines 3-9 Government has authority to disqualify Medicare Adv Plans, HMOs, etc., forcing people into Government plan.
Pg 354 SGovernment will RESTRICT enrollment of Special needs people!
Pg 425 Government will instruct & consult regarding living wills, durable powers of attorney. Mandatory!
PG 425 Government provides approved list of end of life resources, guiding you in how to die.
PG 427Government mandates program for orders for end of life. The Government has a say in how your life ends.
PG 429 ?advanced care consultation? may include an ORDER for end of life plans. AN ORDER from the Government to end a life!The Government will specify which Doctors can write an end of life order.
PG 430 The Government will decide what level of treatment you will have at end of life.; Reply to this comment


by hamiltongrad August 6, 2009 11:24 PM EDT: Would it be possible for Hillary to run with Bill in 2012 ? I like her, and know that as a team they would be great. Maybe Obama could ask Hillary to be the VP ??? We have to say that the Clintons have been reallt good for the country.; Reply to this comment