To Confirm or Not to Confirm: Polling on Court Nominees

In the latest CBS News Poll, conducted just before Judge Sonia Sotomayor's Senate confirmation hearings began, a quarter of Americans said they had a favorable opinion of the Supreme Court nominee and 15 percent were unfavorable -- but most Americans had yet to form an opinion.

That's not unusual; the confirmation hearings are often the first opportunity Americans have to learn about a nominee's judicial approach and positions on some issues.

(CBS)

The CBS poll also asked whether Americans thought the Senate ought to confirm Sotomayor. Thirty percent said yes and just 14 percent said no, but again many Americans – 52 percent -- couldn't say.

Comparing that data to the public's views of previous nominees shows that opinions are actually more positive and better-formed for Sotomayor.

At 30 percent, the percentage that thinks the Senate should confirm Sotomayor is higher than it was for previous nominees as their hearings began. Just 14 percent thought the Senate should confirm two ultimately unsuccessful nominees -- Harriet Miers, who withdrew from consideration before hearings were held, and Robert Bork. About a quarter thought the Senate should confirm Clarence Thomas and John Roberts.

And while half of all Americans didn't have an opinion as to whether Sotomayor should be confirmed, that's actually a lower number than this poll has found in the past for other nominees. As many as seven in ten Americans couldn't say whether Samuel Alito or Harriet Miers should be confirmed, and nearly as many had no opinion about John Roberts or Robert Bork.

SHOULD SENATE CONFIRM NOMINEE?

	Now Sotomayor	1/2006 Alito	10/2005 Miers	9/2005 Roberts	9/1991 Thomas	9/1987 Bork
Yes	30%	17%	14%	26%	24%	14%
No	14%	9%	13%	8%	11%	13%
Can't say	52%	70%	70%	63%	59%	66%

Partisan polarization over Supreme Court nominees is nothing new, but the gap between Democrats' and Republicans' views on confirming Sotomayor is larger than for other recent nominees. Fifty-two percent of Democrats think she should be confirmed, but just 12 percent of Republicans agree.

SENATE SHOULD CONFIRM SOTOMAYOR? (CBS News Poll, July 2009)

Republicans	12%
Democrats	52%
Independents	21%

SENATE SHOULD CONFIRM SAMUEL ALITO (CBS News Poll, January 2006)

Republicans	36%
Democrats	6%
Independents	14%

SENATE SHOULD CONFIRM JOHN ROBERTS (CBS News Poll, September 2005)

Republicans	46%
Democrats	13%
Independents	21%

In the past, public support for a nominee's confirmation has usually risen once the Senate hearings end and the public has had a chance to learn more about him or her.

In a CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted just after Samuel Alito's hearings ended, 33 percent thought the Senate should confirm him, up from 17 percent before the hearings began.

Before his widely-watched hearings began, 24 percent felt Clarence Thomas should be confirmed -- that rose to fully 57 percent in a CBS News Poll conducted just after his hearings ended.

Support for the confirmation of Robert Bork also rose, from 14 percent before his hearings to 21 percent afterward, but the percentage that thought Bork should not be confirmed increased too, from 13 percent to 27 percent after the hearings.

SENATE SHOULD CONFIRM…

	Before hearings	After hearings
Alito (1/2006)	17%	33%
Thomas (10/1991)	24%	57%
Bork (9/1987)	14%	21%

Some politicians and observers have said that Sotomayor will most likely be confirmed; this poll shows that is something more Americans would like to see happen than not.

---

Sarah Dutton is the CBS News director of surveys. Poll Positions is weekly Hotsheet feature on polling trends from the CBS News Survey and Polling Unit. Click here for more posts from the series.

[aldon61]

The role of the senate is to "advise and consent". That being said, if Obama wants Sotomayor, he gets her unless the senate has proof that she is not qualified. Opinions ARE NOT PROOF!. You need look no further then the confirmation hearing for Justice Roberts. Sure, there was left wing babbling, but in the end, there was no proof that he wasn't qualified. He was confirmed with 78 Ayes,

[wedapeeedon]

If a W.A.S.P., male or female made the comment Sotomayor did, they would be sent "Packin" [sic mine]. When you assassinate the "Best and the Brightest" (Hence the election of an ex drug addict to the highest office in the land) you get thieves, scalawags and closet racist to fill the gap.
I have no doubt that SOTOMAYOR WILL FAITHFULLY DISABLE whoops discharge the office to which she is....WE'LL SEE.
P.S. If you believe her explanation as to why she said it...I Have some stock certificates for bridge real estate in Brooklyn ya just gotta buy...Goldman Sachs will handle sale!!!
10B GIVEN ANNOUNCE 2 BILLION PROFIT, (OBAMA BOARDROOM MATH AT ITS BEST).THE OTHER 8 BILLION??????? "CAN ANYBODY SAY I JUST SAVED THE THIRD QUARTER..." BHADOOMP BA!

[bondsman_dotmac]

Judge Sotomayor said that the second Amendment is a state right and yet it is clear when it says ?the right of the people to keep and bear arms? not that a state or government can tell them if they can, why else would it say ?shall not be infringed?? It is the bill of rights for the people not any government, by her thinking free speech, the right of the people to peaceable assemble, The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures or any other of the rights of the people are at risk. It was written over two-hundred years ago and in plain language so that the people could understand what it said, now we have Judges telling us that we don?t understand the meaning and they must tell us what it says?
Are we less intelligent then we were then or is the government with the help of the courts attempting to become dictatorial and domineering over the people and leave us without away to defend ourselves and families from criminal and the Government? The Second Amendment is the corner stone of the Bill of Rights if we let that one go they will take the rest. She does not belong on the SCOTUS and her and many others should not be judges.