CDC: Flu Outbreak Is Becoming "More Serious"

By: Declan McCullagh
Topics: Domestic Issues

(AP Photo/Alexandre Meneghini)

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's top flu specialist has privately informed health care officials that the H1N1 virus is becoming a more serious threat, CBSNews.com has learned.

"We're now certainly starting to pick up more serious cases," Dr. Joe Bresee, chief of CDC's epidemiology and prevention branch of the influenza division, told health care providers on Thursday.

Bresee said on a private conference call that the situation is now "changing a bit," adding that H1N1's incubation period is between one and four days, and its infectious period is similar to seasonal flu at two to seven days.

CDC spokesman Thomas Skinner told CBSNews.com that "we're still learning about" the H1N1 virus -- also known as swine flu -- and declined to comment further on his colleague's remarks.

Bresee's comments come as more evidence of the new influenza strain popped up around the country, with a dozen states reporting cases and nearly 300 schools closing. Meanwhile, the CDC is racing to develop a vaccine.

One puzzling question, of course, is why the H1N1 cases in Mexico seem to be resulting in more deaths than the ones in the United States.

Even though the CDC has confirmed 109 cases domestically, plus a few more reported by state health officials, there has been only a single known death -- a toddler visiting from Mexico. The World Health Organization reports 97 confirmed cases of infection in Mexico and seven deaths.

By comparison, the annual flu season kills about 41,000 Americans a year, and, according to the WHO, results in between "250,000 and 500,000 deaths every year around the world."

Declan McCullagh is the chief political correspondent for CNET. Declan previously was a reporter for Time and the Washington bureau chief for Wired and wrote the Taking Liberties section and Other People's Money column for CBS News' Web site.
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by whitemale08 May 1, 2009 7:21 PM EDT: No, actually it's just you. Well, you and the rest of the neocons.
Posted by cs4466 at 2:38 PM : May 1, 2009 --

STOP THE PARTISAN ATTACKS!!!!

I VOTED FOR OBAMA YOU MORON!!!; Reply to this comment


by cs4466 May 1, 2009 5:38 PM EDT: WE'RE STUPID!!!
Posted by whitemale08 at 10:46 AM : May 1, 2009

No, actually it's just you. Well, you and the rest of the neocons.; Reply to this comment


by whitemale08 May 1, 2009 1:46 PM EDT: Folks, this is all a setup!

The WTO, the Tri-lateral Commission, U.N., all of thise global garbage is setting up this flu pandemic to usher the NAU (North American Union)

That stupid, moronic British idiot PM Gordon Brown came over here and Pelosi let him address Congress and talk of 'continents'...NO MORE SOVEREIGN NATION-STATES!

And President Obama is now the GRAND SUCKER for the f_cking BANKSTERS BAIL-OUT who are setting this all up!

Folks, this is happening right before OUR VERY EYES! and we are just sitting here sucking our thumbs watching football!

WE'RE STUPID!!!

GET OFF YOUR BUTTS, CALL CONGRESS AND DEMAND GOLDMAN SUCKS GO INTO RECEIVERSHIP NOW AND FILE FOR CHAPTER 11 BANKRUPTCY IMMEDIATELY TO SHIELD US FROM THEIR FUNKY DERIVATIVES SWINDLE!!!

DO IT NOW...OR DIE!!!!; Reply to this comment


by rational_1 May 1, 2009 12:30 PM EDT: How does the USA medical profession rationalize the intriguing statistic which falls out of the articles' data that citizens of the US die of "regular" flu at almost twice the rate of the rest of the worlds populations?
Posted by Countrykenrs at 8:39 AM : May 1, 2009

I can think of one very good reason - correct diagnosis. In a lot of other countries lots of people (especially in poor rural areas , such as in China) may die of influenza without ever having been diagnosed as having it - and how many others had it but recovered. You can only accurately determine fatality rates when you also know infection rates. That's why the apparent lethality rates of swine flu in Mexico may seem so high - who knows how many other people were also infected but recovered.; Reply to this comment


by j_flood May 1, 2009 12:28 PM EDT: Just so the media in USA will know - the rest of the world refers to the 'flu' as H1N1 with the 'swine' left off.; Reply to this comment


by pdchapin May 1, 2009 12:21 PM EDT: Check out WHO's website...in reality, there have been ONLY 159 confirmed cases & ONLY 9 confirmed deaths in Mexico
Posted by aaaabbbbcc at 7:42 AM : May 1, 2009
-----
The critical term here is "confirmed". The WHO has very high standards so there numbers will be low. It will both not count a lot of probably cases until all the tests are in while Mexico is probably counting cases that will later turn out not to be this flu.

One question is why US death rate is so low compared to Mexico's. Let me suggest that with Mexico's health care system, a lot of people with minor cases, which is what we're seeing most of in the country, never see a doctor and therefore never get counted. The dead, however, have to be officially dealt with.I think if we look at Mexico, the dangerousness of this virus may be highly over-rated.; Reply to this comment


by declanm-2009 May 1, 2009 11:54 AM EDT: Countrykenrs: It's a good question, and one that I had myself when writing the article.

I think the most likely possibility is that deaths abroad due to influenza may be underreported, so the WHO numbers are low. We can't expect Burma or North Korea or Zimbabwe to keep as good records -- and be as honest in reporting deaths -- as New York City might.

Another possibility is that influenza deaths may be correlated with chillier climates, which the U.S. has, and not tropical climates, which we don't really have.

Another reason -- and this is speculation, so take it for what it's worth -- is that more and more Americans have desk jobs that keep them indoors and away from sunlight. Here's some research that suggests Vitamin D from sunlight can ward off influenza:
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/51913.php; Reply to this comment


by johnb8888 May 1, 2009 11:47 AM EDT: "glad I don't live in a big city
Posted by popstom33 "

Isolation won't save you. In fact, a moderate exposure to new germs helps develop resistance.

Just ask the Indians, who died by the millions from new diseases that most Europeans were immune to.

So wipe that smugness off your face.; Reply to this comment


by Countrykenrs May 1, 2009 11:39 AM EDT: How does the USA medical profession rationalize the intriguing statistic which falls out of the articles' data that citizens of the US die of "regular" flu at almost twice the rate of the rest of the worlds populations? From article 41000 in US die each year from flu; 41000/500000=8.2%. Population of USA 320*10^89 divided by population of world 6.7*10^9=4.8%. Anyone have an answer to why Americans with about 4.8% of worlds population die at about 8.2% of worldwide deaths due to the flu every year?; Reply to this comment


by credibility2 May 1, 2009 11:26 AM EDT: I trust no fudged stats by the WHO, CDC or Mexico's government. Originally, Mexico was claiming over eighty deaths of swine flu, and now it's been lowered to less than twelve? I also think that any person who is from a family that has a confirmed case of this and who goes around visiting others, possibly exposing them and infecting them, needs to be arrested and placed in quarantine. And the scheduled so-called immigrant rights parades today in cities where there are either confirmed and/or suspected swine flu cases, these organizers only care about promoting their criminal agenda versus concern over possibly infecting more individuals with this disease. I also understand that our Custom's Agents wanted to wear masks, but were told not too because it perpetuated fear and over-reaction to the spread of the disease. Presumably, Napolitano has received complaints about this and is looking into it. Custom's Agents have a right to wear these masks, given the potential of becoming exposed. Our government is disgusting in its insistence on pandering to Mexico.; Reply to this comment