October 25, 2011 7:23 AM

Herman Cain tops Mitt Romney in latest CBS/NYT poll

By
Corbett B. Daly
Topics
Polling ,
Campaign 2012

Republican presidential hopeful Herman Cain campaigns outside of Kinnick stadium in Iowa City, Iowa, Oct. 22, 2011.

(Credit: AP Photo/Brian Ray)

UPDATED 7:35 p.m. ET

CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

Businessman Herman Cain is now atop the field of Republican White House hopefuls, squeaking past former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

Cain garnered 25 percent support of Republican primary voters in the poll released on Tuesday, compared to Romney's 21 percent.

In early October, the two men were tied at 17 percent.

The poll was conducted Oct 19-24 among 1,650 adults. 1,475 interviews were conducted among registered voters and 455 voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. The margin of error among primary voters is plus or minus four percentage points.

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Cain's support surged among voters who identified with the conservative Tea Party wing of the Republican party, rising to 32 percent in mid-October from 18 percent just a few weeks ago. That's more than four times the level of support he had from the group in mid-September.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich took 10 percent of likely primary voters, while Texas Rep. Ron Paul's support was at 8 percent.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who led the poll in mid-September, plunged to just 6 percent support. He had 12 percent in early October and 23 percent in mid-September.

(At left, CBS News political correspondent Jan Crawford and Republican strategist Charlie Black discuss the poll on "The Early Show")

Romney's Tea Party support has held steady in October, at 18 percent, after a modest increase from September's 12 percent.

Perry, however, has seen his Tea Party backing go up in steam. He had just 7 percent support in the latest poll, compared to 12 percent in early October and a staggering 30 percent in mid-September.

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman were at the back of the pack, with 2 percent, 1 percent and 1 percent respectively.

The race is still open, as voters are not firm in their support of any of the candidates. About four of five voters said it is too early to say for sure who they support for the nomination, with just 19 percent saying their minds are already made up. That's about the same as it was at this point in 2007.

Americans are getting interested in the 2012 race for president. About 70 percent of registered voters nationwide are paying at least some attention to the 2012 election campaign, including 31 percent who said they are paying a lot of attention.

Republicans, of course, are paying closer attention to the campaign. About 78 percent said they were following the campaign closely, compared to about 68 percent of Democrats.

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However, Republican primary voters have yet to find an alternative that a majority enthusiastically supports. At this early stage in the campaign, Republican primary voters are not especially enthusiastic about Herman Cain, Mitt Romney or Rick Perry as potential nominees, but there is more enthusiasm for Cain than for Romney and Perry.

Thirty-two percent of Republican primary voters say they would enthusiastically back Cain if he became the party's nominee, while 30 percent would have reservations about him. Fewer Republican voters would enthusiastically support Romney (18 percent) or Perry (14 percent), and more say they would have reservations about each of them (42 percent for Romney and 40 percent for Perry).

Fourteen percent of primary voters say they would not support Cain, and the same percentage says the same about Romney. Nineteen percent say they would not support Perry.

Read the complete poll (PDF)
Search the CBS News poll database
CBSNews.com special report: Election 2012

This poll was conducted by telephone from October 19-24, 2011 among 1,650 adults nationwide. 1,475 interviews were conducted with registered voters and 455 with voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus two percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three points and four points for the sample of Republican primary voters. The error for subgroups may be higher. An oversample was conducted for this survey which will be analyzed in a future poll release. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.


Add a Comment See all 600 Comments
by gitano2 November 12, 2011 9:04 PM EST
I have listened to the debates tonight and they where a good deciding factor..... Cain, Bachman Paul are jokes they need to drop out they cannot beat Obama.... The canadates that can possibly win, Rommney, Gringrich or Perry.. All the others are not gonna make it......
Reply to this comment
by MRMOMROB November 12, 2011 11:38 AM EST
Lets see an online poll so the people can speak
Reply to this comment
by MRMOMROB November 12, 2011 11:36 AM EST
no one asked me
i want to see a credible poll not a hand picked 1000 or so lets see an honest 100,000
Ron Paul or America loses
i will never vote for the lesser evil again
Reply to this comment
by rhett70 November 12, 2011 11:22 AM EST
voting for the lesser evil is voting for evil.
RON PAUL PRESIDENT 2012 No strings attached
Reply to this comment
by tpaine1 November 11, 2011 7:02 AM EST
The fact that the Obama team has gone after Herman Cain so viciously (both the "accusers" were paid by Obama supporters to "go public") proves he is the candidate they fear most.
His simplified and reduced tax plan will jump start the nation's economy which is exactly what this nation needs.
What is it with Democrat/socialists and strong, selfmade male black Americans. Is it that they escaped the Democrat/socialist plantation and succeeded without government assistance?
What do you want four more years of from Obama? The Great Recession? Record bankruptcies and foreclosures? Employment at the 1983 level? Only half of minorities graduating from HIGH SCHOOL??
Reply to this comment
by cathycode October 30, 2011 1:10 AM EDT
How can this be? 9-9-9 is awful and he really don't have a plan except to sell his book.
Reply to this comment
by tpaine1 November 11, 2011 6:43 AM EST
Ok, what part of the income tax do you like. The ability of the government to throw you jail if you miss by a penny? The ability of the politicians to manipulate the tax code to "reward friends and punish enemies?" The tens of thousands of pages that make up the income tax code? The sheer size and number of the IRS?
A national sales tax on necessities is fair, flat and simple. I would, eventually, like to see the income tax eliminated altogether, but this is a GREAT first step.
by strawman2012 October 28, 2011 10:17 PM EDT
Ok, Here goes. Like most of us I have been watching the news and the polls and wondering who was going to get my support. I am going to be brutally honest, I voted for Obama and I regret it. I have voted republican for many years and I really fell for Obama's bull. I will not make that kind of mistake again (I hope). My initial impression of Cain was dismal. I like Ron Paul but he is not going to win the GOP. That leaves Mitt Romney. I started googling him and watching his YouTube videos. I read his Wikipedia autobiography and I have decided I like the man. I don't know much about his Mormon faith but I am open. What I really like about Mitt is his business acumen. He has experience and a lot of it. He is worth 190 to 250 million and earned it through business ventures. That is the type of person I want.
Listen, if we want Obama out of the white house we have to be real. Mitt is the only one I see that has a chance. I WILL NOT vote for Cain. I don't like him. Thanks for your time.
Reply to this comment
by strawman2012 October 28, 2011 10:34 PM EDT
I forgot to mention Rick Perry. I live in Texas so I know him well. There is just something about the man that turns me off. I can't say exactly what that is but I am just going to trust my gut on this one. I PREFER Mitt over Perry but I would take either one of them over Obama. The other candidates (like Buchanan) just don't measure up. It's still pretty early in, I'll be watching all this VERY closely.
By the way, I sincerely hope the thinking in the republican camp is NOT that we need a black man to run against Obama. That is just plain stupid and would be an insult to all of us. We're smarter than that.
by gitano2 November 12, 2011 9:01 PM EST
Great summary of the events... I agree with all that you have said..
by alstile October 28, 2011 9:22 PM EDT
by : alfred charles lewis
Thank the Lord for sending us Herman Cain now we have a choice. Not just between the lessor of the evils. We now have the opportunity to pick a man with principles that run deep in his soul like Reagen. Let us prey, Thank you Lord that you have raised up Herman Cain for this day. Arise and shine for the light has come and the Glory of the lord has risen upon thee! Herman Cain. We prey the Lord that you will give the people spirit to rise up and volunteer,give finances, speak passionately and at the end of the day we will see Lord you are aligning a veritable army around this man Herman Cain because righteousness, justice, and truth need to be restored to America. We prey in Jesus name AMEN
Reply to this comment
by cloopy October 28, 2011 12:45 AM EDT
obama,is the worst president ever. in 08 obama promised to fix things,look 4 yrs ago gas was 178 per gallon.....jobless rate was 7 percent,obama promised to lower it its now almost 10 percent...food prices up now,gas prices upppp home values at the lowest ever!! now obama is blaming the congress the gop,obama and his dem congress from 08 till 2010 dug us rt into a hole,newt gingrich perry /gingrich 2012
Reply to this comment
by carolo43 October 28, 2011 3:58 PM EDT
Gas was $3.75 in 2008. Apparently you've been listening to Bachmann instead of checking out your facts. Or you just learned to drive!
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/10/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm
by tpaine1 November 11, 2011 6:51 AM EST
When Dims took over Congress in '06 and started their "no energy" Green Energy Plan, the average price of gas was $2.62. Google it up. This one feature of the Obama-Pelosi-Reid regime has killed the economic engine of America.
by cloopy October 28, 2011 12:40 AM EDT
cain has no record to run on,NONE!no foreign policy experiecne,but he says he can learn dat! flip flops on every issue,lies like crazy then gets nasty when caught!!! and refers us to his website to explain his 999 .....NEWT GINGRICH<rising in polls,wins all debates,is brilliant and speaker gingrich was the ringleader of the republican congress in early 90s,pushed bill clinton to the barganing table,cut taxes.reduced spending,welfare reform ect.speaker gingrich is clearly the man to beat obama,newt would clean obamas clock at debates,why are we taking such a huge risk w/clowns like romney care/flip floppy ran for pres in 08 and lost romney!!!!!if we seriously want obama out of the whitehouse,lets put a wolverine in there,newt has the tough skin to fend off the viscious attacks to come from the msnbc obama media.newt may have some negatives,but obama got elected right?
Reply to this comment
by carolo43 October 28, 2011 4:01 PM EDT
50 million senior on social security and Cain never mentions social security. Or medicare, or foreign affairs, or border security or veterans benefits. He talks of nothing but his 999 tax already changed to 909 and the books he's selling.
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