Can Romney win Iowa?
Mitt Romney speaks during an economic roundtable at the Treynor State Bank, Oct. 20, 2011, in Treynor, Iowa.
/ AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall
This post originally appeared on Slate.
SIOUX CITY, Iowa -- Iowa is a dusty place this time of year. Billows rise up from the combines in the field as the corn is harvested. Your eyes get scratchy. But no dust sticks to Mitt Romney. He is the stainless-steel candidate: precise, technically flawless, and lacking warmth. "I love this country," he said at the end of his town hall at Morningside College Thursday morning. "I hope I made that clear. I didn't say that as directly as I'd like to: I love America." Yes, he was sincere, and yes, the delivery was synthetic.
This was Romney's first visit to the state since the Ames straw poll in August, so he had some explaining to do. "I'll be back again and again," he said. "I'd like to win Iowa." Throughout the day he told Iowans how important they were to the electoral process.
The Romney campaign has been coy about how hard it's going to campaign in Iowa in an attempt to lower the stakes so that if Romney doesn't do well, no one will draw larger conclusions about the weakness of his candidacy. But it is becoming increasingly clear among Iowa's political class that Romney can win Iowa. And if he were to win the caucuses here, his strength in New Hampshire would make him almost impossible to beat for the nomination.
Romney has a chance to do well in Iowa because he starts with a solid base of available voters. He won 26 percent of the vote in 2008. If you add the percentages other moderate candidates such as Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain received, that's another 27 percent of the electorate that may be inclined to consider him. And there are signs that social conservatives are willing to give him a fresh look, too. In 2008 James Lewis of Sioux City voted for Mike Huckabee. But Lewis is going with Romney this year. Why? "I went with Huckabee because I liked his values stance," Lewis says. "Today the values are important but cutting spending and getting the economy back rather than bailing out the banks is more important."
Romney has one of the best organizations in Iowa, but it's hidden. The theory is that if it stays active but under the radar, it can make a smash-and-grab at the last minute if the environment is right. "They have kept Mitt Romney's name in front of my face every week," says Steve Armstrong, chairman of the Linn County Republican Party. "He may be out of view in Iowa, but he's not out of view on e-mail, Facebook, and Twitter." The question is whether the vestigial support Romney worked so hard to earn in 2008 is like a car battery that has sat dormant all winter. Can it be turned on easily, or will it require more of the retail politicking Iowans pride themselves on demanding?
The non-Romney vote is so split and the issues of this election are so favorable, Romney may not have to work that hard to do well in Iowa. On the other hand, if someone like Rick Perry were to take off, Iowa would become a geographic symbol of the fact that he hasn't been able to gain more than a quarter of the electorate's support in the polls despite all the time Romney has spent campaigning, his natural fit for the economic moment, and Republican voters' desire for someone who can beat President Obama.
As he toured the Western part of the state, Romney was all business all day. Even in rural areas, he campaigned in his natural habitat, sitting in the ersatz leather swivel chair the end of a conference table of business leaders at a local bank in Treynor, speaking at the Council Bluffs Chamber of Commerce.
He stressed his 25 years in business about as often as the rest of us inhale and exhale. "I love you. I love business," Romney said in Council Bluffs. He talks about himself as "a business guy," in the detached third person way Bob Dole used to talk about "Bob Dole." To the extent that Romney ever struts, it's when talking about his inner CEO. "I am a capable enough business guy to know when people are blowing smoke and when they're not," he said when explaining how he would determine what federal programs should stay and which ones should go. The questioner had asked about farm supports, which Romney said he may or may not continue to support. "I'm not running for office based on making promises about handing out money--more money for schools, more money for farmers."
Romney said Obama didn't know how to lead. That's not a new critique, but Romney's emphasis was on how Obama lacked the leadership skills necessary to build consensus with the other party. Referring to his own time in Massachusetts with a heavily Democratic legislature, Romney argued that he knew how to compromise without compromising his principles. In 2008 Obama ran as a bipartisan consensus builder based on his theory of how it might be done at the executive level. Romney argues he has the practical knowledge.
For a state in which 60 percent of the caucus voters describe themselves as evangelicals, Romney stressed electability. He mentioned social issues only once--in an awkward exchange with a woman about birth control. She asked him if he knew that an abortion pledge he'd agreed to sign which stipulated that life begins at conception, prohibited the use of birth control. She cared, she said because she used birth control. He said he didn't support blocking birth control.
Romney acted like Tuesday's acrimonious debate in Las Vegas hadn't happened. He was so focused on Obama and the general election that he made only the most glancing reference to his opponents. In response to a question about immigration, he noted that one of his rivals (Perry, though he didn't name him) had supported a program to give in-state tuition rates to the children of illegal aliens. Though Romney's aides tamp down talk of inevitability--they do not mind the repeated rise of alternative candidates--their candidate sounded pretty confident that his focus on the general election was warranted. "There s a good shot I might be the president of the United States," he told the business leaders in Treynor. "If I do, I will benefit from your thoughts."
If it sometimes seems as if Herman Cain and Rick Perry are rushing around in their headspace looking for facts to string together, Romney is the opposite. He knows the details of energy expenditure and output in ethanol production. He knew the kinds of cattle raised and the graduation rates of the local school district. At the roundtable with local business leaders, he dished out his fair share of generalities. But it was clear, as he connected the dots between the comments of the feed lot operator and the ethanol producer, that he was actually listening. His only slight slip was that he was about $2 off on the price of a bushel of corn. He will never get that fact wrong again.
Mitt Romney on the trail
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The economy is collapsing before us and the only idea Obama has is to circumvent congress and print more money out of thin air thereby digging a deeper hole to create the false idea that we can't fail. Guess what the whole monetary system has failed and nothing Obama does will have long term stability. The 1 per centers have to choose between potential riots and mayhem in the streets or a real leader that can correct the flaws in the system. Ron Paul is the only choice. The 1 per centers will take big loses when Paul slashes their gravy train but it's better than the wrath of the mobs at their cricket games. French aristocrats lost a few heads the last time the bells tolled on them for greed and unfairness. It's been happening in South America for decades and now it has reached our shores. The 1 per centers may think they have the upper hand but history tells us that the People always win. Ron Paul is the best man to lead us through this economic quagmire.
People act like America is so stable that basic needs are fairly guaranteed, but the reality is a potential for true collapse. Romney has given no indication that he understands what is necessary to correct our inflation bubble.
•Cain has 'stumbled' right to the Tip Top of the heap. First place. Numero uno!. Pretty cool. 'Conventional political wisdom' (oxymoron for sure) and the GOP mogul/king-makers are scratching their pointy little heads and wondering what is happening. Does it get any better than that. All the TV talking heads are befuddled and almost apologetic. They keep making excuses for why it's not happening the way it's 'supposed to'.
All of us 'mere mortals' and casual political observers are thrilled as much as amused. What's up Karl Rove? Bill O'Reilly...so Cain is just entertainment? You guys are way behind the We the People curve. Watch in amazement and 'learn'. Cain is going up despite all your negative waves.LOL
Both Romney and Obama want to continue the wars in Afghanistan and elsewhere overseas, they each favored the bail-outs, both are pro-gun control, and neither is really serious about a meaningful reduction in taxes or the size of government.
The only difference I see is that Obama has been relatively consistent in his abortion policies; I am not sure where Romney stands this evening on the issue of abortion.
Romney and the country club set who let him get this far are destroying this party.
I am choosing a candidate based on simple pragmatism.
Except for Ron Paul, every other GOP candidate has doubled-down on more air and land wars in Asia and Africa, they have endorsed TARP or other bail-outs, and their economic plans are simply nibbling at the edges (except for Cain, who wants to raise taxes on the poor and middle class). Please explain how any of that will be any different than Obama in November? Are those winning issues in 2012? Obama-lite will not win the general election.
No other candidate in the race motivates independents and young people like Ron Paul. No other Republican can capture so large a portion of the voters abandoned by pro-war, economy destroying Obama.
America will not settle for the Tweedle Dum, Tweedle Dee rotation this election year.
END THE FED AND THE IRS. VOTE RON PAUL. STOP LISTENING TO MEDIA FOR PROFIT LIES. RON PAUL HAS NEVER DROPPED FROM THE LEAD.