How far can Herman Cain go?

Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Does Herman Cain actually have a chance to win the Republican nomination?

There's no question that Cain, who was essentially unknown when he entered the presidential race, remains a serious long shot. But it's starting to look slightly more plausible that the former Godfather's Pizza CEO could actually become the Republican presidential nominee.

Cain earned a round of positive media coverage for his strong upset victory in the Florida straw poll last weekend, and he's getting traction with his 9-9-9 tax plan - a proposal to replace the current tax code with a nine percent flat income tax, a nine percent corporate tax and a nine percent national sales tax. When a moderator asked Cain about the plan at last week's Republican debate, the audience broke into applause even before he finished asking the question.

Now a Fox News poll shows Cain with 17 percent support - putting him just two points behind Rick Perry and six points behind Mitt Romney. It's just one poll, of course. But if it's accurate, it represents a near tripling in support for Cain from the previous Fox poll. And even if the poll is an outlier, it helps Cain with fundraising and means another round of glowing media coverage. (An endorsement from Fox News commentator Dennis Miller, meanwhile, can't hurt. ) 

Cain burst out of the gate with his performance in the first Republican presidential debate, which was strong enough that a Fox News focus group deemed Cain the clear winner. But he soon ran into trouble over controversial comments (perhaps most prominently, his statement that he wouldn't tap a Muslim to serve in his cabinet) and an unwillingness to offer specifics on foreign policy.

Cain spent the summer in the back of the GOP pack, polling well enough to earn a spot on debate stages but badly enough that the media treated him as a second- or third-tier candidate. His rivals, meanwhile, clearly did not see Cain as a threat and thus declined to take shots at him.

That will change if more polls show a surge in support for Cain. And that's not inconceivable: Gallup has found Cain has the highest positive intensity score of all the GOP candidates among those who know who he is. (Positive intensity is a measure of strongly favorable opinion vs. strongly unfavorable opinion.) Cain is known only by about half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; if his positive intensity score holds up as he becomes more well known, he could give Romney and Perry a run for their money.

But money, as it were, is a problem: While Romney and Perry have a ton of it, Cain lacks the fundraising network of his better-known rivals. And that's not the only issue. Cain is competing with Perry, Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum for social conservatives, and that means he needs to do respectably in Iowa, where they make up a major chunk of the GOP electorate. But Cain has little organization in the state - as evidenced by his fifth place finish in the Iowa straw poll - and some his staff in the state quit because they didn't think the campaign was putting in a serious effort.

A Cain campaign official acknowledged to CBS News that the candidate is unlikely to win Iowa. But the campaign hopes to survive the state - a third-place finish would be enough, though Cain has claimed he'd be "ecstatic" with fifth-place - and then hold on until South Carolina.

It's a state Cain's campaign believes the candidate can win -- and thus eventually get to the White House. Cain hails from nearby Georgia, where he hosted a radio show that could be heard across the border; the state is also 28 percent African-American and highly religious, which makes it demographically appealing for Cain, a Baptist minister. And the open primary means Democrats and independents who support Cain can cast ballots.

Still, there's a lot of distance between where Cain stands today and a victory in South Carolina, where he currently polls in the single digits. And Cain will likely not have the resources to match Perry or Romney's get-out-the-vote effort in the state. But there's no denying that Cain's candidacy suddenly seems a bit more viable - and no doubt that his rivals are starting to pay attention.

[NobamaNOW2012]

As the fourth quarter begins the market dive continues.......

One can only conclude that a majority of companies and consumers are on strike.

Got money in the bank?. Save it. Got equity in your home? Keep it Got an operations budget? re-examine it and contain costs...

Guess what America, that's what is happening. Consumers, Banks, and Corporations are not going to bail the Obummer administration out. Encouraging class warfare and crushing the individual entrepreneurial spirit won't work. Suing the banks and sending the NLRB out as your Trumpka in-your-pocket attack dog won't work either.

So we are just going to vent our rage online, vent in the lame scream media, vent to our friends on Facebook and YouTube, and most importantly we are going to WAIT while we vent.....................

As we wait we will save. Save money, save on expenses, save on reduced costs, save on postponed purchases, save with store brands, save with Amazon, save with Ebay, save with Craigslist, save with the local flea market, save with the sale of our "garage clutter", save with roommates, save with a downsize in autos purchased, save with the brown bag lunch, save by cutting cable tv, save by tele-commuting, and finally save with a downsize from the McMansion if it can even be sold.

Someday soon someone will come to the forefront to run against our current Clown in Chief.

When this person arises from the ashes of the current "felony stupid" administration (kudos to Rep. Issa) we will focus laser like on electing this person to undo this nightmare........ Money will pour into this challenger's Pay Pal connected coffers and the internet media will take center stage getting the word out. Internet enabled persons will continue to be at the forefront of the "new media" with their Smartphones, I-Phones, and other yet to be named on-scene live streaming capabilities. The new internet news reporters will surpass the traditional media in their raw unfiltered "truth of the moment" audio and video moments. This new norm is also a warning to all to be careful since NOTHING is off the record in these unscripted moments. YouTube is a blessing and a curse depending on which side of the screen you are on.

The punditry tells us we are scared, we don't like uncertainty, and we lack leadership.
Bulls**t...........we are enraged, we are certain, we are going to get real leadership in 2012 and it will not be coming from the Democrats.

November 2010 was a trickle, November 2012 will be a tectonic shift.

[NobamaNOW2012]

As the fourth quarter begins the market dive continues.......

One can only conclude that a majority of companies and consumers are on strike.

Got money in the bank?. Save it. Got equity in your home? Keep it Got an operations budget? re-examine it and contain costs...

Guess what America, that's what is happening. Consumers, Banks, and Corporations are not going to bail the Obummer administration out. Encouraging class warfare and crushing the individual entrepreneurial spirit won't work. Suing the banks and sending the NLRB out as your Trumpka in-your-pocket attack dog won't work either.

So we are just going to vent our rage online, vent in the lame scream media, vent to our friends on Facebook and YouTube, and most importantly we are going to WAIT while we vent.....................

As we wait we will save. Save money, save on expenses, save on reduced costs, save on postponed purchases, save with store brands, save with Amazon, save with Ebay, save with Craigslist, save with the local flea market, save with the sale of our "garage clutter", save with roommates, save with a downsize in autos purchased, save with the brown bag lunch, save by cutting cable tv, save by tele-commuting, and finally save with a downsize from the McMansion if it can even be sold.

Someday soon someone will come to the forefront to run against our current Clown in Chief.

When this person arises from the ashes of the current "felony stupid" administration (kudos to Rep. Issa) we will focus laser like on electing this person to undo this nightmare........ Money will pour into this challenger's Pay Pal connected coffers and the internet media will take center stage getting the word out. Internet enabled persons will continue to be at the forefront of the "new media" with their Smartphones, I-Phones, and other yet to be named on-scene live streaming capabilities. The new internet news reporters will surpass the traditional media in their raw unfiltered "truth of the moment" audio and video moments. This new norm is also a warning to all to be careful since NOTHING is off the record in these unscripted moments. YouTube is a blessing and a curse depending on which side of the screen you are on.

The punditry tells us we are scared, we don't like uncertainty, and we lack leadership.
Bulls**t...........we are enraged, we are certain, we are going to get real leadership in 2012 and it will not be coming from the Democrats.

November 2010 was a trickle, November 2012 will be a tectonic shift.

[2happy2ride]

He can keep going until people realize he cannot pronounce "with".
Or until they realize he is just as lost as obama on world affairs, policies and protocols.
If you vote like you're hiring a manager for your family business NOT a drinking buddy, you have two choices, Mitt or Newt. They are our only real qualified candidates.
One experiment in the WH is enough for this century.

[RedAxit]

Raising Cain 2012!

[pdlenter]

Who cares what Democrat lackey reporters and brain dead liberals think? Barry is history. The country has had it with Communists. Herman will be the next President because he has actually held real jobs and fixed broken companies. He is a humble man, which separates him from all the other candidates in both parties, and he's smarter than the sum total Democrats in Washington. He doesn't have to read a teleprompter or ask a pollster what he thinks. He is an abomination to leftists who hate black men who don't bow to their liberal masters but so what? Liberals, your opinion is not relevant. America no longer cares about your nonsense.

[gadfly65]

A month or so is about all any front-runner of this fragmented and out-of-touch party is good for.

[Chief10beers]

This Cain fever is mostly media hype. ~ it don't mean nothing.

Cain will return to his mozzarella and oregano soon enough having enjoyed himself and something for his whole family to remember.

And maybe even make more money selling pizza.

[noloyalisti]

There is only one thing worse than a failed Republicon. It is someone stupid enough to be a minority and still be a Republicon.

[mattman1986]

Same thing with the Democons. It works both ways. Pelosi and Reed seem to fit both of those ccategories while being Democons.

[noloyalisti]

But it is the Republcons who hate the poor (and people of color have much higher % of poor), the middle class and women. Did not all or moat of the Republicons vote against the Civil Rights Act of 1965?

[2happy2ride]

Do Cain supporters realize, a plan involves more than a slogan?
It astonishes me how many can be so easily persuaded with a few pre-package one liners than rational thought.
He created a numerical slogan and everyone wants to call it a plan. He severely lacks any semblance of a thorough domestic or foreign policy.
He too would be in WAY over his head.

[lingo009]

My bleak prediction: If Cain becomes president, there is only so much he can do and won't be able to turn this economy around quick enough. Nearly every economist has predicted this before Bush left office. Unfortunately, the american attention span has always been too short and won't care and won't remember nor stick to the facts. If Cain gets into office and the slump continues... watch out folks.
It'll be blame time and the racial rumblings will begin. The blame will be nothing short of pointing to two black men in office residing over hard economic times. It won't matter if one is a democrat or republican. A scapegoat is always needed for quick answers and it will be both Obama and Cain.

[retiredgustav]

Don't worry it won't happen. Cain can not carry the deep south. Just look at the results of the last presidential election.