How late can a Chris Christie or a Sarah Palin wait before it is too late?

Fox News analyst and former Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin

/ Getty Images

With all the speculation about possible late entrants into the Republican nomination race, including N.J. Gov. Chris Christie and Fox News analyst Sarah Palin, we've been asked a lot about the deadlines - how long can a potential candidate wait to be a real candidate?

First, remember we still don't even know for sure when the primaries will be. There remains the chance that some states could move from February to January, and any filing deadlines for the ballots could conceivably move too. But it's more than just legal deadlines - a campaign apparatus has to be there, too.

Late October appears to be the latest someone could get in, gear up, and run in the early states, given all the requirements and needs of a campaign. Iowa doesn't really have a state filing deadline because it's a caucus, a gathering of activists who voice a preference during the meeting. Same with Nevada. The New Hampshire filing period is the first few weeks of November (Nov 18th at the latest) but the law seems to allow them to move it. Florida is October 31st. South Carolina is November 1st and would not likely move with a primary date move.

But the real issue for a late entrant is of course the campaign machinery itself. Even a well-funded candidate still needs some folks to go and knock on doors, make phone calls, get the message out, champion them in precinct caucuses, to say nothing of cut ads, buy media, raise money (and comply with all the requirements for doing so) develop policy papers and coordinate something as massive as a presidential campaign. Did we mention raise money? That takes some planning, and probably not one that can materialize right at the deadline. Christie or Palin might be able to overcome that in the short-term, but the rest of the field isn't going to give up that organizational edge when the voting comes around.

That said, remember that the bulk of delegates don't get awarded in the early states - in fact, few do. Those states are all about the less tangible - but critical - idea of momentum. Someone gearing up after them would have to compete against at least one other candidate who was already carrying the label of a winner.

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[Justiceserved]

Palin's dislike number is about 62% so if she does or doesn't she couldn't poll in top 5, no less 2, and couldn't win EVER! She is an idiot!!!

[JV1970]

Have you seen Obama's lately? It's not much better!

[zenia5]

JV, as usual, tries to divert attention away from the real topic...which is PALIN's dislike number.

[Birdman04]

by cbsnacilbuper September 29, 2011 1:59 PM EDT
My challenge to you USA_is_back is to post where I said "I mourn bin Laden's death"

Prove it, if not shut up and move along.

Folks, I for one am happy he is dead, very happy. I also know he died almost 10 years ago. Do some research and decide for yourself.

------------------
You are a damn liar and a idiot. Navy seals killed that low life you un-American twit.

[elenin_sept26]

So, USA_is_back, is this Birdman04 one of your names too?

[tsigili]

Only the media really is talking about any chance of new entries, into the candidates.

The rest of us, accept the "I am NOT running" statements as fact.

Come on media.....get real.

[Progress4USA]

I suspect she'll wait till just before the GOP convention to annouce. She wont get nominated...but she'll get the press coverage and that's all she cares about.

[cbsnacilbuper]

USA_is_back, I found a picture of you on this site.


http://www.cbsnews.com/2300-504083_162-10005422.html?tag=re1.galleries

[cbsnacilbuper]

In 2004, Illinois State Senator Barack Obama gave us a window into his vision for American leadership. He said, "Now even as we speak, there are those who are preparing to divide us; the spin masters, the negative ad peddlers who embrace the politics of 'anything goes.' Well, I say to them tonight, there is not a liberal America and a conservative America; there is the United States of America. There is not a Black America and a White America and Latino America and Asian America; there's the United States of America."

Now let's see. He just went to speak to the CBC and La Raza. Face it folks you were taken in by a nice catch phrase of Hope and Change, and all you got was more of the same.

[cbsnacilbuper]

I wonder why this USA guy never post what my answer to him was.

USA, do you support the death penalty?

[cbsnacilbuper]

My challenge to you USA_is_back is to post where I said "I mourn bin Laden's death"

Prove it, if not shut up and move along.

Folks, I for one am happy he is dead, very happy. I also know he died almost 10 years ago. Do some research and decide for yourself.

[Rcarlton3]

www.chrischristiespants.com

[zenia5]

I don't think a late entry would hurt Chris Christie at all; however, it doesn't matter if or when Sarah Palin decides to jump in....she is finished before she starts anyway.

[JV1970]

You're still just as delusional as ever!

[zenia5]

I see there are still a few delusional Palin supporters (one or two) hanging onto a thread of hope that she will run. What they don't seem to understand is that, even if she jumps in the race, she cannot possibly win the nomination since so many Repubs see her for exactly what she is.....nothing more than a narcissistic publicity ho...and a dumb one at that. Oh, the despair of these few hopefuls when they finally come to this realization.