Poll: Support for debt ceiling increase doubles

CBS News

CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

Americans are now roughly split on raising the debt ceiling, a new CBS News poll shows, with support for an increase nearly doubling since last month.

The spike in support for an increase follows dire warnings from the Obama administration and many economists concerning the consequences of lack of action. They have warned of a possible U.S. default on its obligations, a stock market crash, an increase in interest rates and a halt in Social Security payments and other obligations.

Some Republicans, among them presidential candidate Rep. Michele Bachmann, have deemed such warnings "scare tactics." But the warnings -- and the increased media coverage of the issue -- seem to have prompted many Americans to move from opposing an increase to backing one.

Support for increasing the debt ceiling has risen 22 points from last month, from 24 percent to 46 percent. Opposition has fallen 20 points in that period, from 69 percent to 49 percent. (See graphic at left.)

The poll found that the more one follows the debt ceiling debate, the more likely he or she is to support an increase: 51 percent of those who are following the debate very closely think the debt ceiling should be raised, compared to just 29 percent of those who are not following it closely.

The shift toward more support for an increase can be seen across the political spectrum. Last month, 54 percent of Democrats opposed raising the debt ceiling. Now 61 percent support increasing it. And while a majority of Republicans and independents oppose an increase, it's by a narrower margin than last month. Thirty-three percent of Republicans now say the debt ceiling should be raised, up from 16 percent last month; 40 percent of independents say it should be raised, up from 21 percent last month.

Two thirds of Americans back the Obama administration position that a deal to increase the debt ceiling should include both spending cuts and tax increases, while just 28 percent back the Republican position of only spending cuts. Three in four say an agreement they do not fully support would be preferable to having the U.S. default on its debts.

Expected consequences of inaction: A slim majority of Americans - 51 percent - say they think the United States will "probably not" default on its debts if the debt ceiling is not raised. Thirty-eight percent say the nation will "probably" default without an increase. Republicans and independents are more likely than Democrats to predict that the nation will not default.

The Treasury Department could potentially prioritize paying off U.S. debts before other obligations without an increase in the debt ceiling, avoiding default. But according to the Bipartisan Policy Center, that would mean cutting all other government expenditures - which include military pay and entitlement payments - by 44 percent.

A majority of Americans say it is at least somewhat likely that certain entitlement payments will be stopped without an increase in the debt ceiling; 44 percent say it is not very likely. President Obama warned in an interview with CBS News last week that he could not guarantee that Social Security checks will go out after the August 2 deadline without a deal.

CBS News

Eight in ten Americans, meanwhile, predict a severe downturn in the economy and stock market without a debt ceiling increase, including 45 percent who say it is very likely. The percentage who says a severe downtown is very likely has risen 20 points since last month. Just 13 percent say a severe downturn is not very likely. (See graphic at left.)

There are skeptics when it comes to the Obama administration's dire warnings, however. Thirty-six percent of Americans - including 51 percent of Republicans - say the administration is making the consequences of not increasing the debt ceiling sound worse than they actually would be. Forty percent say the administration is describing the situation accurately, while 14 percent say it is understating the potential consequences of not acting.

Two thirds of Americans say Republicans and Democrats will probably come to an agreement to raise the debt ceiling by the August 2 deadline. Thirty-one percent say the two sides will probably not reach agreement.

The debt ceiling debate has not improved perceptions of Washington. Twenty-eight percent now say they are angry about the way things are going in the nation's capital, up nine points from May -- and the highest percentage recorded since the question was first asked in early 2010. Another 51 percent say they are dissatisfied with Washington. Just 14 percent call themselves satisfied with how things are going in Washington, and a mere 3 percent say they are enthusiastic.

More from the poll:

Poll: 2/3 back tax hikes in debt deal

Poll: 71% shun GOP handling of debt crisis

Read the full poll

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This poll was conducted among a random sample of 810 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone July 15-17, 2011. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

[gep1955]

How could anyone who watches CBS's twisted view of the world be expected to vote otherwise.

[billiam1012005]

MUST SEE YOUTUBE VIDEO!!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A2JCNbpi30 Type this link into your browser, or go to YouTube and search "Obama and his White House Gang" GREAT VIDEO...SHARE WITH ALL YOUR FRIENDS!!

[janet6161]

:Yes i have much to say......I realize this debt with other countries has not happened overnit....It is very sad that people like me and many others may have to suffer on Aug. the 3rd because the big wigs cannot get it right........I don't see it going that far because many people will be angered to the point of no return if this would and should happen.....I know for speaking for myself I live from ck to ck and i imagine many other people do too.....My lights house note water and all will not be paid....I hope and pray to the good Lord congress the house and senate and president comes to their right mind.............Janet.....

[agnesdeo]

Well another very objective poll taken by our veruy liberql friends in CBS. I sure they don't have a socialistic agenda to promote Prez. Obama do they???????
Now, let's go to FOX and see what their polls are saying?

[Diane2358]

I think they should balance the budget by cutting spending and raising taxes. I am below middle class, I make 16,000 a year and I am willing to pay a little more if it will help my country. We have to open our hands to give in order to receive. Keeping a tight fist not only keeps what we have in but it keeps us from getting more. I cannot believe that the people we elected would rather see this country fall apart than to compromise. No one wants to say it but I will, It is not because the Present is a democract but because he is black. Let's call a spade a spade.

[RBROWN1957]

VOTED IN YOUR POLL AND IT WAS OVERWHELMINGLY AGAINST RAISING THE DEBT CEILING. BUT YOU AT CBS SAY AMERICANS WANT TO RAISE IT . I THINK CBS NEW WOULD TELL ANY LIE FOR THIS SOCIALIST TYRANT IN THE WHITE HOUSE, YOUR HIS *****

[noloyalisti]

That is because everyone is finally realizing we have a revenue problem from the rich taking all the wealth that they did not earn, do not work for and don't deserve. It's just a Ponzi scam.

[bileven]

How did they not work for it? Many of them risk their wealth everyday. Without it, there would be no Stock Market, no "Angels Investors", nobody to provide bulk donation to charities, like United Way.

Ponzi Scam? That would be the Governments way of getting your money...

[mylifetolive]

I'm not buying that 2/3 of American people think that the debt ceiling should be raised without some strong spending cuts - say 40% - and a great reduction in government employee numbers, projects, and control.

These polls have a tendency to have yes/no answers, which sway the real statistics.

[moretruthnow]

We need increased revenue exactly as we needed increased revenue when Bush and republicans got us into the Iraq War and spent irresponsibly. Bush decided to cut taxes a couple of times when he should have increased taxes to pay for the wars. Instead it all went on the govt charge card, the Medicare Part D went on the govt charge card. It was loudly expressed back then that never had the country gone to war without the country paying higher taxes to support the troops and the mission. So hypocritical republicans can talk their heads off about the debt and deficit since they created it. All the Senate republicans recently voted against ending subsidies to oil billionaires. Oil and gas companies whose top five companies made $32 billion in the first quarter of 2011 alone and stand to collect about $4 billion in tax-code subsidies in the coming year and nearly $40 billion over the rest of the decade. We need spending cuts and increased taxes.

[bileven]

I do. Even many of the Politicians agree that it needs to be done. Where the fighting is, is the stopping of excessive spending.

We DO need to raise the Debt Limit (for a short period), and I agree with the Republicans, in that, the spending is out of hand. We are too broke to pay our bills and need to take out a loan... so it makes sense that we need to NOT be spending that loan on unnecessary things.. like funding Obama's non-war but Military action in Libya.

[oldman67]

Raising the debt limit just allows more spending by the congress. More money for the military industrial complex. Fifty six percent doesn't seem to be enough. More money for the Federal Reserve to give international bankers. it is giving permission for more wasteful spending. It was never intended for us to get out of debt.

[dim_public]

You are wrong.

"The reason that raising the debt limit is so unpopular is that people think you're voting to keep [increasing] deficit spending, instead of voting to honor obligations that were already incurred," he said. "I think [the Gingrich Republicans] figured I'd be smart enough to explain to the American people that they were refusing to pay for the expenses they had voted for when Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush were president. And that would make 'em look bad."
- Bill Clinton

[zerauso]

Hate to tell you but it is not about spending more money, it is about committing the money they already spent. In other words what the Republican plans for the past 10 years have spent and not had the money to pay for...

[dim_public]

McConnell, Boehner, Cantor and Sessions
Just never seem to learn any lessons
"Cut entitlemen?ts" they pitch
"But don't touch the rich"
"The poor should make all concession?s"

The programs for the Tax Payers they want to cut are NOT entitlemen?ts but in fact WE paid into those programs our entire working lives. BUT, they resist the notion that the excessive and temporary Tax Cuts for the Wealthy are the REAL entitlement programs. Lets cut the REAL ENTITLEMEN?T programs! Do away with most of the Tax Loop Holes for Corporatio?ns and repeal the Bush Era Tax Cuts!

[repukehater]

Americans are fools,ignorant and obnoxious bring on the recession, don't raise the debt ceiling I so want to see Americans whine like the pigs they are. Maybe they will get their heads out of their ***** and pay more attention to what is going on rather than american idol.

[moretruthnow]

The GOP have become anti-tax fanatics with their never raise taxes pledge to Grover Norquist. They have become the party of failure because they won't be honest, won't be fair, won't be honorable and won't compromise for the benefit of America. They lied when they said jobs, jobs, jobs was their goal. Their goal is to end the social safety net made up of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. They see this as a perfect time to attack all programs that have made America a great country and a decent country.