Why a Sarah Palin presidential campaign is hopeless

Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

This post originally appeared on Slate.

DES MOINES--Sarah Palin says George Washington is her favorite founder because he was reluctant to serve but answered the call of duty. She likes to think of herself this way, answering the needs of a clamoring electorate. That is part of the cinematic beauty of her bus tour: The crowds that greet her can represent that call to take up their standard and head into presidential battle on their behalf.

There's only one problem: The call isn't coming. That's the clear message in a new CBS News poll of the Republican field. Taken after the Palin bus tour started rolling, it asked Republicans whether Palin should run. By a 20-point margin (54 percent to 34 percent), Republicans said she should not run. Among Tea Party supporters, where Palin has her strongest following, she is also waved off against a run. Half say she should not run; 38 percent say she should.

The biggest challenge to a Palin candidacy has always been that her image within her own party has been getting worse. Some 36 percent of Republican voters have an unfavorable view of her, compared to the 37 percent that have a favorable view. Her favorability rating has declined since April.

CBS News Poll: Most Republicans don't want Palin to run

Why? Some of the reluctance may be that voters don't think Palin is qualified. Almost two of five Republicans say this in a recent Washington Post poll. Interviews suggest some who really like Palin think she'll never get a fair shake from the media, making the presidential race a distracting nightmare. Others cite her poll numbers in the general electorate, where her unfavorable numbers are at toxic heights.

Then there are what we seasoned political reporters like to call "the facts on the ground." I've been in Iowa the last few days, and voters and activists here are in a shuffle-the-cards mode. They cycle through all the candidates, even the ones far back in the polls like Rick Santorum. Gov. Rick Perry of Texas has come up several times, even though he's only rumored to be thinking about considering getting in the race. Herman Cain is getting a lot of buzz. People like that he's not a politician, which means both that he didn't hold a Washington job but also that he's not a polished guy who's always trying to pitch you something.

Video: CBSNews.com interview's Herman Cain

In all my conversations, no one brought up Palin--either as the answer to the presidential puzzle or as a question mark worth waiting for, like Perry.

If Palin wants to campaign in Iowa her time is running out. Gov. Terry Branstad, a Republican, says any candidate who wants to get in has to do so this month or next. Branstad wants a long campaign with a lot of candidates--partly to help build the party, but also because it's good for his state economy. Still, he speaks to a truth everyone in Iowa politics believes: Popularity alone won't get voters to the caucuses in January. George W. Bush waited until June 1999 to make his first visit to the state as a candidate, but he also had an organization already built and in place. "Every Republican candidate will have to run a 99-county campaign," says Branstad. "This isn't like the Democratic race where you can just visit the big cities."

Palin also faces another problem in Iowa. Michele Bachmann, an Iowa native, is challenging her among Tea Party members and movement conservatives. This is Palin's base. And Bachmann's campaign manager, Ed Rollins, says she will "be so much more substantive" than Palin. "People are going to say, 'I gotta make a choice and go with the intelligent woman who's every bit as attractive,' " he says. This isn't coming from the lamestream media or a member of the GOP establishment like Karl Rove: Rollins worked for Mike Huckabee in 2007 and managed the Reagan re-election campaign in 1984. Palin is going to have to compete hard, and the competition might not be delicate.

Sarah Palin has shown a laudable imperviousness to conventional wisdom. Perhaps the grim developments in the face of her latest public bus tour may only spur her interest in running to prove that she can not only show the pundits she's wrong but that she can defy political gravity. Still, if Paul Revere were involved in politics today, he might be ringing those warning bells.

31 Photos

Sarah Palin on the road

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[MarkInOhio]

I love articles like this one, which discusses the current republican candidates as if any of them had the tiniest chance of defeating Obama in 2012. This collection of ragtag losers is good for amusement value; for actual election-winning and governance, not so much.

Palin's role as Buffoon-In-Chief is being threatened by Michele Bachmann and, in the wings, the emetic Rick Perry. That's all that's happening here, folks.

[bobb1time]

Everyone knows Palin cannot win the nomination but she does carry some leverage with her party's eventual nomination. If she didn't why would the lamestream media be so conderned about everything she says or does? Why are they searching through her Alaskan emails? Let's find something to discredit her so that whomever she likes can be discredited. Enough of these games. People who play with fire get burned. Those that find Palin poop smell crappy.

[mikelpond]

Palin will campaign, but she will never declare/run.
If she runs and loses, the gravy train is over

If she runs and wins, there's all that 'governing' stuff - she'd quit when she learns she can't hide behind aides

But, if she campaigns but never declares herself an official candidate - $BINGO$

[amondo79]

The problem with poll numbers when it comes to the Sarah Palins of the world is that even though only 38 percent of a given demographic wants you to run, that 38 percent still adds up to millions of people who support you, many of whom come out to cheer you on, buy your books, watch your show, or otherwise express their enthusiasm. Polls be damned when you are looking at a crowd of thousands of faithful on every stop of your bus tour. It keeps an ego swollen enough to hope against hope.

[daffy64]

Yep. She's always surrounded with thousands of adoring idiots, er...fans.

[stupa5]

Let's see those emails...you betcha!

[bobb1time]

Let's guess. You have the nose of a bloodhound

[technocoffee]

The bigger print they type, the frequency of posts (more than a half dozen per subject is a warning sign) & the extreme name-calling (communist! marxist!) = no life, low IQ FOOL-just like Palin!

[MurdochSucks]

by Founders1791 June 9, 2011 3:57 PM EDT
THE FACE OF LIBERAL DEMOCRATS AND THEIR STEWARDSHIP OF AMERICA

Words associated with Barrack Hussein Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid

Democrat
Socialist
Muslim
Marxists
Liberals
Homosexuals
Food Stamps
Debt
Spending
Regulations
Safety Nets
Nanny State
Big Government
Unions
Fees
Taxes
Bias
Fear
Control


Words associated with Sarah Palin and Fiscal Conservatives

Conservative
Republican
Christian
Freedom
Business
Liberty
Markets
Growth
Respect
Fairness
Responsibility
Charity
Energy
Independence
Happiness


+++++++

by MurdochSucks June 9, 2011 4:52 PM EDT
But you didn't add Communist to either column, Founder.

+++++++

by Founders1791 June 9, 2011 5:29 PM EDT
murdochsucks,

I didn't add communist?.....your education is showing....try again!

+++++++

Umm, I have a Master's in Computer Science, but it only takes a quick search from your browser to find there is no mention of communism in your original post.

[MurdochSucks]

Cat got your tongue, Flounder1791?

[san850]

Ha! Founders is a prime example of Palin's ignorant, unhinged, irrational bigoted base. Aren't you proud?

[MurdochSucks]

by Flounder1791:

"People don't change after 25 years old."

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ah to be a Republican. I think this inability to learn and grow and PROGRESS is the definition of conservatism.

[MurdochSucks]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUsBvkfQKUw&NR=1&feature=fvwp

Great representation of the Tea Party idiocy. The guy is whining about people getting handouts while unemployed and enjoying disability checks every month. Priceless. THIS is Palin's constituency...

[MurdochSucks]

Weiner hasn't done a bad job, and at least he has a job. Your teapal in question is a freeloading hypocrite. Weiner messed up lying about his legal (albeit dishonorable) extra-curricular activities to save face with his wife, but at least he can put a few thoughts together.

[rhondamt]

What an unnecessary article. Why is CBS wasting time and webspace pointing out the obvious? All you need to do is watch one brief interview with Sarah Palin to know:
1. She isn't qualified for the job
2. She lacks the intelligence and common sense needed to become qualified
3. Her ideas are just plain scary and not representative of the majority of Americans.

I figured this out a long time ago. And I'm a Republican.

[34sender]

Nice try Founders, but 2007 was four years ago and the nation has come to know former Governor Palin much better.

(I did not listen to the interview, I like living in the present)

[MurdochSucks]

Founders, do you realize that the founding fathers were Liberals? Perhaps you should think about that next time you are going to use liberal as a curse word.