Unemployment numbers will weigh heavily on Obama's 2012 campaign

AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Updated 2:50 p.m. ET

As he pitches his economic plans to voters, President Obama is trying to ignore the disappointing May jobs numbers by focusing on positive long-term trends. His focus is on taking credit for rescuing GM and Chrysler with government bailouts, and for bringing the economy back from the brink of depression.

Austan Goolsbee, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, and a long-time adviser to the president, also took that "glass half-full" approach today, noting that the private sector has added more than 2.1 million jobs over the past 15 months.

"There are always bumps on the road to recovery," he said in a statement, "but the overall trajectory of the economy has improved dramatically over the past two years."

But try telling that to someone who's been unemployed for much, most, or all of that 2 years. And try telling it to voters next November if the economy continues to stall.

With a gain in May of a meager 54,000 jobs, and with unemployment inching up from 9.0 to 9.1 percent, the economy is looming as an increasingly dark cloud over the president's reelection campaign.

Some pundits on both sides of the aisle have recently opined that the president is already a heavy favorite because the Republican field is so weak. But political analyst Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia says: "There are several candidates who could easily beat Obama if the economy is bad enough. So people who say the Republican field is full of losers are absolutely wrong."

Here's a fact that surely worries the White House: No president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won re-election when the unemployment rate was higher than 7.2 percent.

Perhaps the best example of the connection between unemployment and reelection is the first President Bush. In March 1991, after the first Gulf War, his approval rating was a stratospheric 88 percent. Just 16 months later it had plummeted to 31 percent. Why? Because unemployment had soared to 7.5 percent. Mr. Bush went on to lose to Bill Clinton whose campaign theme was "it's the economy, stupid."

The last president to win reelection when the unemployment rate was over 7 percent was Ronald Reagan. Unemployment stood at 7.2 percent when he beat Walter Mondale in 1984. But the key for Reagan was that the economy was improving, which allowed him to run an optimistic "morning in American" campaign.

FDR also ran for reelection when unemployment was high - extremely high - but also won because things were moving in the right direction. When he first won in 1932, Sabato notes, unemployment was 19 percent. Four years later it was still sky-high - 17 percent -- but he won because things were getting better. By 1940 unemployment had inched down to 15 percent, but that positive movement was enough to win reelection again.

As Sabato says: "The perception was things were getting better. The numbers were horrible, but the perception mattered a lot."

Sabato's conclusion based on a review of modern reelection history: "If the economy is going downhill the incumbent president almost always loses, if the economy is improving the incumbent president almost always wins."

Yes, there could be other issues that play an important role - the quality of the campaigns, major national or international events, or even scandal.

But the one constant in predicting reelection winners and losers in recent decades has been unemployment. Most economists believe the unemployment rate will still be over 8 percent on Election Day 2012, but the key for President Obama will be whether it's moving in the right direction.

[shack200]

As a young person i am expected to be more active when it comes to our government, but I am a little skeptical about voting for Obama. He has tried to do some things, but the things he has done isnt making any improvement when it comes to our Government or Economy. The unemployment rate has risen 2% higher then when he was not in office. This means that his stimulus plan didnt actually work...it just put us in more debt. We had to borrow money from other countries just to stay afloat with our economy. Unless Obama proves me otherwise im not so sure I will be casting my vote for him.

[borderhawk]

Barack Hussein Obama II, was born subject to the British Treaty signed at Washington, by US President Harry S. Truman, on June 6, 1951; (September 7, 1952, Date-In-Force) making the 1948 British Nationality Act applicable, allowing births to UK Citizens to be recognized, so confirming Barack Hussein Obama II, a dual-citizen at birth, and not a natural born citizen, and not constitutionally eligible for the 2008 or 2012 Presidential election.
Nothing occurring after birth matters.

[jgg000101]

it's really nice of cbs to marginalize "unemployment" as the factor that will weigh heavily on obama's re-election but gas prices, food prices, inflation, the devalued dollar, housing, manufacturing, consumer confidence, the wars in iraq, afghanistan, the outcome in libya, his handling of the turmoil throughout the middle east including iran's nuclear ambitions, will all weigh heavily as will all of his policies from gitmo to the stimulus to healthcare.

[1stlttightwad]

I can predict that this is going to be a very negative campaign with all sorts of inuendos, lies, half-lies, and bald face lies led by the Democrats. The democrats have already begun their negative dossier gathering activities on every republican that could possibly run. Even to the point of gathering info on Chris Christy that has said repeatedly that he is not going to run. Which ever person emerges as the pres-elect for the Repubs can be sure to have a broadside of mud to be launched against him or her in order to obfuscate the real issues facing us. Obama's real enemy is his own words, deeds, actions, appointments,
and inactions. One only has to do is read his book. view tapes of his speeches and look at the background of the people that he chose to surround himself with. Yes, Mr. Obama, we have judged you by the people that surround you, communists, felons, socialists, terrorists, union thugs, etc.,. America has seen through your real agenda and will not tolerate any more furtherance of your mis-guided dreams. The truth about you is going to set YOU free and US from the government shackle you so grandly envision for all freedom loving Americans.

[david4673]

Frankly whatever has happened in the past no longer has the same predictive effect on today's political -- or any, really -- events.

This very thing we are using to make our opinions known -- the internet -- has changed more than most of the people who use it, including the pundits, (actually ESPECIALLY them), take into account.

We still have a representative republic, but the ability to speak and be heard is far more democratic now.

I want unemployment to be below 7% by November of 2012... because I care about my fellow citizens, not an election. However, I don't think it will be the driving force in the next presidential election. I think we are seeing some action in the states and on issues like Medicare that will move people in a far greater way... just my opinion and like Chip Reid, I am entitled to post it for all to see.

The internet, the democracy equalizer.

[nbenn514]

Well put david, which surprises me since you so eloquently slammed others on previous posts who were exercising their right to make THEIR opinions known, who were entitled to post it for all to see. If you are truly interested in democracy, then you will respectfully counter opposing views without resorting to questioning others' intelligence or political bent. For the record, I've voted democrat (and for obama) most of my adult life. And I stand by my statement that Obama is in over his head. He may be a good president but he would have been a great president with more experience under his belt.

[thanksgreed]

Earlier this month, Speaker Boehner warned that "The mere threat of tax hikes causes uncertainty for job creators -- uncertainty that results in less risk-taking and fewer jobs." As he told Harry Smith of CBS two weeks ago:

"The top one percent of wage earners in the United States...pay forty percent of the income taxes...The people he's {President Obama] is talking about taxing are the very people that we expect to reinvest in our economy."

+++++++++++++
Continued tax breaks....higher profits...no jobs...
How's that workin' for ya????

[justme2012]

Obama gave billions in tax cuts in his so called stimulus spending..higher profits...no jobs

How's that workin' for ya????

[thanksgreed]

When ya discussing credibility, "justme"

by paid4congress June 4, 2011 9:48 AM EDT
This is the second day I've asked you justme. How can an unemployed, right wing extremist, who we are forced to support changing names all day to post the same hate over and over have ANY credibility? Most on this board even know your other names. Who cares what you think. You're mocked by everyone with a brain. Aren't you even smart enough to be embarrassed?

[thanksgreed]

I thought we were told that continuing the Bush tax breaks would create jobs?

[justme2012]

No, you were told that raising taxes would stop any new job creation.

Obama promised that HIS tax cuts would create jobs under his stimulus package.


Meanwhile, Obama continues to get foreign tax credits on his foreign income from some unnamed source earned by doing some unnamed "stuff".

[thanksgreed]

hey returd...look what I found...

by paid4congress June 4, 2011 9:48 AM EDT
This is the second day I've asked you justme. How can an unemployed, right wing extremist, who we are forced to support changing names all day to post the same hate over and over have ANY credibility? Most on this board even know your other names. Who cares what you think. You're mocked by everyone with a brain. Aren't you even smart enough to be embarrassed?

[RobAla]

I woke up to President Obama's lack of compassion and lack of understanding of economics shortly after he took office. The stock market took a massive plunge, and a reporter asked him what he thought about it. President Obama said that he didn't watch the stock market; that it was like watching a political poll.

It is nothing like watching a political poll. When the stock market dropped, people lost much of their life savings and many retired people who were supplementing Social Security with stock earners found that they had to go back to work. Retirement accounts were nailed. I watched older people retire, then return back to work. Unemployment soared, and retirees going back to work made it even worse.

In that ridiculous answer, President Obama told me that he had ZERO understanding of the economy and even worse - he didn't care. He didn't care that Americans lost their hard earned life savings; that wasn't his concern. His concern was how to grow the federal government. His concern was how to "remake" America into HIS vision of what he wanted it to be. He did not give a rat's rear end about the suffering people of the United States.

It's time a lot of people woke up to the damaging impact of this President, and in 2012 he needs to go back to Chicago. His bad policies have made matters worse.

Washington Times: March 9, 2009:
Some Wall Street economists think President Obama could have voiced some sympathy about the plight of frightened shareholders when he compared the stock market's plunge to an election tracking poll that "bobs up and down, day to day."
They worry that the president is underestimating the important role the stock market plays in the economy's performance, and that the markets' precipitous slide is actually a vote of no confidence in the administration's handling of the economy. There's also a suspicion that Mr. Obama and his advisers think only wealthy people own stocks.
"There is some of that feeling that rich people are the ones who have stocks. He does have somewhat of that feeling. But you've got to remember that most people who own stocks aren't rich," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's, the influential Wall Street financial research and forecasting firm.
With the stock market in a practical free fall since he was sworn in to office Jan. 20, Mr. Obama seemed to dismiss the plunge in equities Tuesday in an Oval Office conference with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, suggesting that he was unconcerned about Wall Street's daily fluctuations.
"What I'm looking at is not the day-to-day gyrations in the stock market, but the long-term ability for the United States and the entire world economy to regain its footing," he said.
"The stock market is sort of like a tracking poll in politics, it bobs up and down, day to day. And if you spend all of your time worrying about that, then you're probably going to get the long-term strategy wrong," he told reporters.

[babooph]

2012 election will be like Utah law-do you want to be hanged or shot?

[justme2012]

either one would be better than starving which is what will happen to millions if Obama's preditions of economic catastrophe comes true.

[ferv888]

Obama says they have created 2'1mm jobs, while overall we are down an equal number from when Obama took office. What he will not tell you is that the 2.1mm jobs created does not keep up with those coming into the workforce each month.

Thank goodness for the McDonalds hiring last month, and that is not with tongue in cheek

Ferv888