Kathy Hochul's special election triumph sends Republicans ominous Medicare message
Kathy Hochul.
/ AP Photo/David DupreySome Republicans are already saying that Democrat Kathy Hochul's apparent special election victory over Republican Jane Corwin in a conservative upstate New York district doesn't mean much: It's just one district, after all, and there was a wildcard in the race in the form of independent candidate Jack Davis, who siphoned votes that would otherwise have gone to Corwin.
But even the most optimistic Republicans privately recognize that Hochul's upset victory is an ominous sign for their party. Pre-election polling showed that the number one issue in the district - where 40 percent of the electorate is over 55 years old - was Medicare. All but four House Republicans voted for the Paul Ryan budget that would turn Medicare into a voucher system in ten years; Hochul seized on that vote to cast Republicans generally and Corwin specifically as seeking to gut the program, and it worked. Expect nearly every Democrat seeking to unseat a Republican next year to follow her playbook.
In a celebratory statement just after the results were announced, Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz said the result was a victory "for Americans who believe that our elected leaders should fight to protect Medicare and ensure that our government works for our seniors, working families and young people."
Wasserman Schultz noted that the representative Hochul will replace - Republican Chris Lee, who resigned after sending a shirtless photograph of himself to a woman he met on Craigslist - won 74 percent of the vote in his last election. Carl Paladino, the Republican gubernatorial candidate who lost badly to Democrat Andrew Cuomo last year, took 61 percent of the vote in the district in November.
N.Y. Congressional race defies expectations
"Kathy's Republican opponent, and those who spent a small fortune on her behalf in a solidly Republican district, found out the hard way that their extreme plans to abolish Medicare and slash Medicaid and investments in health care, education, innovation and job creation are wrongheaded and unpopular even in a district that should have been a cakewalk for the Republican candidate," she said.
Both the national parties and outside interest groups spent lavishly to influence the outcome of the race because they knew that it would send a message about GOP prospects in the 2012 election. (The parties also called in heavy hitters like John Boehner and Bill Clinton to make the case for their preferred candidate.) Hochul's victory could make it harder for Republicans to recruit the best candidates - they won't want to run if they think they will lose - and energize Democratic donors for whom taking back the House suddenly doesn't seem like such a remote possibility.
The Republican-aligned outside group American Crossroads sent out a statement after the vote acknowledging the message sent by the special election, calling it "a wake-up call for anyone who thinks that 2012 will be just like 2010," when Republicans took the House from the Democrats.
"It's going to be a tougher environment, Democrats will be more competitive, and we need to play at the top of our game to win big next year," American Crossroads president and CEO Steven Law said.
Officially, however, the Republican Party is playing down the results, with National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions pointing to Davis' presence in the race and saying that "to predict the future based on the results of this unusual race is naive and risky."
"History shows one important fact: the results of competitive special elections from Hawaii to New York are poor indicators of broader trends or future general election outcomes," he said. "If special elections were an early warning system, they sure failed to alert the Democrats of the political tsunami that flooded their ranks in 2010."
Before the vote, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor also said the election wasn't a referendum on the Medicare vote, arguing that Davis' presence skewed the vote. "I know this town loves to take signals from individual races," he told reporters. "I think the best signal you can take is the 63 seats that we picked up in November."
Perhaps. But the voters are suggesting otherwise. "I have almost always voted the party line," Republican Hochul voter Gloria Bolender told the New York Times. "This is the second time in my life I've voted against my party." Added Republican Pat Gillick, who also voted for the Democrat: "The privatization of Medicare scares me."
Cantor himself was quick to cast Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown's upset special election victory last January as a referendum on the Democratic Party. Republicans knew their vote on Medicare was risky, but it was one they chose to cast anyway (in a purely symbolic vote) in an apparent effort to show their Tea Party supporters that they were serious about addressing the deficit and debt. It's a decision that Tuesday's results suggest they may live to regret.
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I just hope the Democrats use this victory to remind everyone how the Republicons stole from the Medicare program and are using that as an excuse to kill grandma. These Cons are very ignorant, evil people, let's face it.
Democrat's to win by splitting the republican vote.
The joke around the office yesterday was "Jane Corlost"
DEMS WON THE SEAT ONLY BECAUSE THEY HAD A SINGLE CANDIDATE.
Personally, I cannot understand the usual Republican call for less government (when the federal government usually inflates with a Republican in the presidency); less invasion of privacy (when they cater to the religious right wing to denounce homosexuality and gay marriage); when they call for more tax exemptions for corporations and the wealthy, (yet seem to include the upper middle class as well, while they receive nothing in reciprocity from the major corporation--read Big Oil, as well as their partners in "crime" like Halliburton,or Big Pharma rather than the welfare of the people). I agree with their concepts (less government, and less government involvement in one's private affairs). However, most Republicans are hypocrites. They say one thing, then pass legislation to do the exact opposite. They are out to make the rich richer. I'm not saying that they're out to make the middle class and the poor poorer, but that's what happens when they get what they want.
Thank goodness for Medicare (as well as Social Security). Even Independents, like my parents, as well as many Republicans, live a longer, better life with these programs. If I had to pay what I'm paying now for health insurance (even though it's only my share, my employer pays the rest), I would be "up the creek" when I got older and had more health problems than I have today. It seems so simple: that's why Medicare is only for those 65 and older, when health issues often dominate one's life.
I'm glad that the people in a conservative area of New York State saw this and voted for the Democratic candidate. I hope that everyone sees this and decides not to get rid of Medicare or even eliminate portions of it. I'd gladly pay a bit extra to get MORE AUDITORS to stop Medicare FRAUD. It's not Medicare that's the problem; it's the fraud that is not caught because it's not funded properly.
And, God forbid, if Social Security went private and invested all of its money into the stock market (which is what George W. Bush wanted)! We've seen boom and bust, but we've never seen a recession like this since the Great Depression.
There's got to be a balance between "safe" government bonds, etc. and the more volatile stock market. The "hybrid" retirement accounts about which I've read lately may be the answer; or at least, AN answer.
But I don't want corporations, especially Wall Street Bankers and Insurance Companies, taking my money. There's got to be a better solution. These types of "financial corporations" are already going back to their old ways of doing business: giving pay beyond what they should be making; huge bonuses, even though their profits do not warrant them and "golden (more like platinum) parachutes" to their CEO's and others high up in the corporations.
So, vote Democrat. Even though the Democratic Party is not without their faults and flaws, they at least are not total hypocrites. Even though they, as well as Republicans, often cater to corporate America, at least they have us middle class and poorer people in mind.
Have you asked (as I have) why most corporate profits are at an all-time high, yet unemployment is better but still not good? That's why they have such high profits! Hire fewer people, make the employees do more work, and only think of the bottom line, not what's best for the company AND the people. We, as Americans, can do both. But it's up to corporate America to start hiring again. You'll still make a profit and more people will not be out of work. Another Republican hypocritical statement: We'd rather make obscenely high profits, make our CEO's, et al richer, than make good profits while giving more people jobs and decent pay.
Governor Rick Scott in Florida: approval 29%
disapproval 57%
The man is toxic and any GOP candidate can be linked with him. Overreach killed the elephant's great hurrah, oh yes, oh yes.
The only way these Republicon creeps get elected is from cheating and money from their billionaire masters.
You are obviously not an independent. Just another thing you write that people will not accept on face value!
It is increasingly clear that you do not comprehend what is written by others. You also rail against others for speaking ill of you, but have no qualms speaking ill of others.
You are the very thing you consistently speak against.
All they want is more money and power for their Republicon Corporate Masters. It's sickening.
The reason it happens is because big money buys ton a political ads and pays the conservate attack dogs like Limbaugh, tons to keep repeating the lies. If you here it enough times you tend to beleive it.
Get ready because the GOP is going to pay for selling us out with the next election.
If you have any doubts, watch the beating they are going to take in Winconsin's recall elections where a 19-14 GOP senate advantage is going to become a 20-13 democratic majority.
I take it you completely support the decisions a high roller makes to lay off his fellow Americans by closing down their manufacturing facility and shipping jobs off shore to make more money.
Well in my book that is called economic TERRORISM and based on the job loses we have seen, we are losing the war on terrorism.
Get ready for a real bad day on the first tuesday in November of 2012! I and many other Americans are going to hold the GOP accountable for their actions.
Better yet maybe they should all resign and avoid the beating they are going to take in the elections!
Many, many Democrats and Independents who do NOT support the extremist stance of the GOP wanted them to win in 2010 (I am one of these people). We knew they would never really lose, if they never had to show the country how poorly they lead.
It was a "lose the battle to win the war" thing. But DJ, I doubt you are able to comprehend this logic, mainly because it is logic.