Why White House and GOP will avoid a shutdown

Left to right, Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH), House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) in Washington, DC, last month.

/ Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

This post originally appeared on Slate.

The battle over the first continuing resolution to keep the government operating didn't end with as much drama as some reviewers would have liked. Like most sequels, CR2 is likely to be even less dramatic. This time, Congress and the White House are facing a March 18 deadline, but all signals point to an agreement before then that will keep things running for two or three more weeks.

The big question is where the flag will come to rest in the tug of war between Democrats and Republicans over how much to cut in the remaining six months of fiscal year 2010. Republican House leaders have proposed $57 billion in additional cuts. The White House has proposed $6.5 billion. In the end, there will have to be a compromise. In mathematical terms, it will look like this: Democrats will accept 6.5 + X in cuts. Republicans will accept 57 - Y. Both sides have said they don't want a shutdown, and no one is saying it's all or nothing.

Finding X and Y is taking some time. The Senate has yet to vote on the proposals favored by the House GOP and White House. (Those votes are now scheduled for Wednesday.) The body will vote down both proposals, because there aren't 60 Democrats and Republicans for either route, so then the deal-making for the Goldilocks route can continue. But there are only 10 more days until the government has to shut down. That's not enough time. So the White House would like to agree now to an extension after March 18.

Coming to an agreement now, rather than pushing right against the deadline like last week, gives negotiators more time to work on the underlying issues. Also, it means President Obama can take his trip to Brazil on March 18 without looking like he's skipping town while a shutdown looms. (Remember all those trips he had to cancel during "turning points" in the health care fights?)

At a breakfast with reporters this morning sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor, House GOP Whip Kevin McCarthy said Republicans were preparing a new funding mechanism that would keep operations open for two to three more weeks with cuts of about $2 billion per week. At three weeks, that nicely matches the $6.5 billion the White House has already suggested cutting (though John Boehner says this figure is inflated). A House leadership aide says they'd rather the money come out of earmark slush funds and some other cuts already proposed in the budget Obama proposed. Wherever the money comes from, the White House is not going to put up a big fight.

The dance steps seem pretty clear--everyone just has to go through them. But when this dance is over, say administration sources, that's it. The next debate will be more contentious. The president recognizes that these mini-funding mechanisms simply allow Republicans to get what they want in installments. If they continue, nearly $60 billion will be cut, and a big stretch of time will have been wasted.

So does this mean the president will come on stage to join the fight? He's already been on stage, say White House aides, it's just not the stage the pundits are watching. Obama traveled to Boston today to promote his plans for education to make America more competitive. That's what the White House wants the budget fight to be about: big economic priorities and the themes Obama outlined in his State of the Union address. "A budget that sacrifices our commitment to education is a budget that sacrifices our country's future," said Obama. "It is a budget that sacrifices our children's future, and I will not let it happen. I will not let it happen."

House Republicans would like the president to be more specific about the resolutions they're debating this instant." "Where is the president's proposal?" said House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, recounting a conversation he had with the White House Chief of Staff William Daley. Right now the public budget fight is about smaller things: continuing resolutions, funding levels for Planned Parenthood and public broadcasting, and so on. Important, perhaps--but also not the kind of fights the president can afford to wage if he's to have any stature left for the big fights he wants to have.

A full Hollywood version of the Budget Battle is coming. The stars are attached to the script. We're just going to have to wait a little while longer for it to go into production.

[Tiddah]

All I know is that the HR1 budget that originated in the house will cost the economy hundreds of thousands of jobs according to economists. That budget is a no-go. We need to cut smart and not just defund the stuff one party doesn't like. Also, why not start back talking job creation or was that just talk from the nov. elections.

[gep1955]

Remember when Pelosi said we have to pass Obamacare to see whats in it? Well they just found $105 billion (your taxes) in expenses that isnt paid for. More lies, corruption and deceit from liberals. No reports here on CBS. For the truth go over to Fox.

[batazoidz]

Actually, according to an ABC news report (http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2011/03/cbo-democrats-65-billion-in-spending-cuts-actually-47-billion.html), the CBO is now claiming the $6.5 billion amount the Demorats propose to cut only amounts to $4.1 billion. That amount will only delay a government shutdown by a week if Republicans stick by their new-found cojones -- which nobody I know expects that they will.

ex animo
batazoid

[RobAla]

Politicians are failing to handle the outrageous over spending. Even with a $61 billion cut to federal spending (that the Democrats hate, and propose only about $6 billion in pitiful cuts), the nation is projected to suffer a staggering $1.6 trillion deficit this year. This is insanity!

Where are the wimpy Republicans who said they would defund the disastrous health care law??????? This stupid law, which the majority of Americans are against, slaps this nation with $105 billion each year in NEW SPENDING!!!!! This is a no brainer - this law has been declared unconstitutional, the majority of Americans do not support the law - JUST DON'T SPEND THIS $105 BILLION IN NEW SPENDING!!!!!! No one is going to lose a job over this type of cut - IT IS NEW SPENDING, AND IT SHOULD NOT BE SPENT!!!!!!

I have come to the conclusion that there is something in the water in Washington DC that turns politicians in zombies. Not zombies that crave flesh, but rather they become mindless zombies that gorge themselves on public money. If they run out of money to eat from this generation, they simply eat the money of the next generation. If they run out of money in this nation, they begin eating money from China and other countries. THE NATION IS BEING OVER RUN BY MONEY EATING MINDLESS ZOMBIES!!!! There is no rational thinking in these people, just a brain dead craving for public funds......

[pasha128]

Still buying into the Republican lies that $3 TRILLION in ADDITIONAL DEBT PROPOSED BY THE 2011 TEA PARTY REPUBLICANS over 10 years IS A SAVINGS because of a ONE TIME cut of $100 Billion? The delusions accepted as fact by the TEA PARTY know no bounds in terms of absurdity.

[rightbehind]

Let the republicans shut it down. People are being reminded at the pump what it was like to have the republicans back in control from the last time.

[RobAla]

OK - the Democrats under Pelosi failed to create a budget for this year (one of their main duties), and it is the fault of Republicans if the government shuts down due to a lack of budget??????? The Republicans are trying to clean up after a ridiculous horde of idiots that ran the 111th Congress.

[pasha128]

Rob your delusions abound -- REPUBLICAN obstruction in the Senate was not a problem created by the DEMOCRATS.