Will the GOP's 2010 House Gains Hold in 2012?

Fresh off a major shift in power in the House, we might expect another volatile congressional election in 2012.

Here's why: this year, 25 races were decided by 3 percent or less in the major-party vote share (13 Democratic and 12 Republican) pending recounts and final vote totals. Another 30 were decided by three percent - eight percent (18 Democratic and 17 Republican). Forty-two more races were decided by just 8 percent - 12 percent (25 Democratic and 17 Republican).

So overall, 56 Democratic and 52 Republicans won with majorities of 56 percent or less, and those races comprise 23 percent of the entire House. Add the unpredictable effects of redistricting to the 2012 equation, and the prospect of a 4th straight election with a turnover of 20 or seats is plausible.

This adds to the recent history of swings: the 2006-2010 trend contravenes a pattern of little turnover and almost unanimous incumbent retention that marked the House contests from 1998-2004.

The massive Democratic defeat sustained in the 2010 election was absorbed in both upscale (high education and income levels) and more downscale (lower income, rural and small-town) districts. Although many districts contain complicated demographic mixes, we can identify 26 suburban, urban and exurban districts lost by Democrats, and at least 34 rural, small-town and mixed districts moving from Democratic to Republican hands in 2010. Overall, Democrats were soundly defeated with suburban voters, after garnering a slight majority of them in 2008.

Interactive Map of 2010 House Election Results
Complete Election 2010 Results

Because more than 50 percent of the nation lives in suburban or exurban districts, that trend, combined with the predictable loss of rural districts, suggests a difficult road back to power for the Democrats. Or does it? We have lived through a recent era of confident pronouncements by both parties proclaiming a permanent majority. We may have instead returned to the pattern of the 1940's and early 1950's, when the two parties gained and lost control of Congress on a regular basis.

One place to watch once again will be the northeast, where GOP inroads marked a big reason for their big night. While Republicans held and expanded their base in southern and border states, the Democrats sustained erosion in the formerly "solid Democratic eastern" states.

The most astonishing single-state results of the 2010 election may have been the loss of seven Democratic seats in New York (assuming the Republican leaders survive recounts in the 1st and 25th districts). On the other hand, it may have been unrealistic to imagine that the previous 27-2 Democratic majority of the New York congressional delegation was sustainable in the short or long term. Still, losses in urban and suburban districts in the New York City area, combined with more predictable losses in rural/small town upstate areas, is a potential sign of trouble for northeastern Democrats.

Similarly, losing 5 seats in Pennsylvania, including two in the Philadelphia suburbs and two more in other parts of Eastern Pennsylvania, is a blow for Democrats as the 2012 cycle approaches. Democrats also lost their stranglehold on New England districts, as Republicans won both seats in New Hampshire.

Where did the GOP House Gains Come From?

Democrats did survive formidable challenges in both Connecticut and Massachusetts, preserving their 100 percent control of those states.

Further west there was better news for Democrats, where they may hold on to all of their California seats (pending recounts), survived a tough challenge in Oregon and lost just one seat in Washington while gaining one in Hawaii.

In the critical industrial midwest, where presidential elections are typically decided, Democrats lost 5 seats in Ohio, including urban-suburban districts in Columbus and Cincinnati, sustained a 3-seat loss in Illinois, a two-seat decline in Wisconsin and two in Michigan and Indiana.

The disappearing Democratic hold on non-minority southern seats reappeared after a four year absence, as Republicans gained seats in Florida (4) - a critical state for President Obama in 2008 - as well as Texas (3), Tennessee (3), Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia (3) and North Carolina, the last two being important states that Barack Obama carried in 2008.

Mark Gersh is Washington Director, National Committee for an Effective Congress, and a CBS News Consultant

[JustMyStyle]

The Republicans shouldn't get too comfortable in the Congress, or the Senate, because the people should be able to now clearly see who they fight against, and for without a doubt. They fight AGAINST the middle class, the unemployed and the poor. They fight FOR the richest people in America, including themselves. Just pay attention to what they are doing right now. They even have the nerve to say the American people sent them there to do what they are doing, fight for the 2%, to hell with the 98%.
Their goals are to help the rich, and to make sure Obama is a one term President, just ask Mitch. The disgraceful goals of no regulations for banks and Wall Street, tax cuts for the super rich, cuts of unemployment insurance, social security benefits and medicare, and last but not least, the destruction of the middle class, Latinos and black Americans. Since these are not their voting blocks, they too must be destroyed along with athe Democrats in Congress, the Senate, and the Obama Administration. They will not rest until they accomplish their goals. The deficit will rise higher than ever if the rich get their tax cuts, but the Republicans don't care. It's pay back time, and no one can pay back like the Republicans. First they will pay back Corp. America and the wealthy for all their money and assistance in the mid term elections, then it's payback for the rest of us. Unfortunately, our payback will not be near so pleasant as that of the wealthy backers of the Republican Party. Ours will be a slow and painful demise. I thought we had a champion to fight for us in President Obama, seems I was wrong. He wants to make little house cats out of sick tigers and court the Republicans instead of crushing them down to size. Too bad, but Nancy Pelozi is strong enough to make little house cats out of sick tigers, but unfortunately, because of the President, she lost her chair and whip. Of course, she is still in charge for a few more weeks yet, maybe she can hold their feet to the fire a bit longer. Also, Harry Reid will have this one last chance to get a spine to pick up the chair and whip and use it everyday for the next two years to beat back the Republicans. Maybe if the Democrats could take a page out of the Republicans play book, give them the same crap the Republicans dish out everyday, just maybe the Republicans wouldn't have the big headed clout they seem to think they have. If only the American people could see just exactly what the Republicans are truly doing with their precious votes, twisting them into something that will hurt their voters best interests, cripple their lives, make them poorer and the rich even richer, just maybe when people see that for themselves they will rise up and demand Republicans stop the crap and do the job they are supposed to be doing, working for the people, not corp. America and the super rich. I can dream can't I ????

[infantryman1968]

CBS, Tell your masters Soros and Obama that we're not falling for your propaganda anymore. Its called open rebellion by the way............

[greydriver53]

Congresssional Democrats foolishly re-elected the same power-grabbing maddaogs who sent their party over a cliff. That is clear proof the Democrats are not listening to the American voter's total rejection of the Obama agenda and have no intention of ever listening. This basically seals their demise as any kind of political force in American politics.

[js1945]

I doubt that the love affair with the conservative wing will last. As of this time it seems that only Scott Brown has the intestinal fortitude to speak for the people rather than the party. We eventually will get to the point where voters will abandon party lines for thinking representation .

[msimamaji]

I just receive word from the Huffington Post that the Republican minority in the Senate killed the Paycheck Fairness Equal Pay Act. This measure would have guaranteed a equal pay for women for the same amount of work. As it is right now, women earn abouy 79% of what a man earns for the same amount of work. Senate Majority read was able to get 58 votes in favor of the measure, but because the Senate needs 60 votes to get it to a floor vote. The Republicans, voted unanimously against this measure, so the Senate cannot pass the bill. Apparently winning the election of 2012 by blocking all of Obama's proposals is more important than guananteeing equality for women.
I can't help wondering. How do women feel about getting paid less than men for the same amount of work? Is this fair? Why do women put up with this injustice? And what about the women in the Tea Party movement? Is getting treated like a 2nd class human being OK with them? And what about all the Momma Grizzlies out there?
My advice to women is simple. The GOP is not your friend. They don't want you to have equal pay benefits. They have made that clear. Your only recourse is to leave the Republican party - Don't for any Republicans - Period. That includes Sarah Palin.

[taxpayingvoter]

What they need to remember is that we will fire them just as fast as the last bunch of losers. Looks like it is time for the independant party to rise up. The last two have sold us out for their pockets to be filled.

[ludvig1-2009]

I expect it to go back the other way after the Repuglicans show what they are about. Of course they will control several governor's houses so you can expect what happened in Ohio in 2004 to happen in other states as well with voting machines being moved from Democratic areas to Repuglican areas so that the Demo's have to wait in line for 4 or 5 hours to vote. No doubt that will happen again.

[TJphoto]

It makes no difference which party is in power as long as they are both for sale. 3.5 Billion dollars spent on the last election. This money wants something and it's not in the interests of the electorate. History will repeat itself again & again.

[taxpayingvoter]

so true, when you spens $100 million to get a job that pays $200,000 then there must be siome huge profits being hidden somewhere

[slatep]

Depends on what they accomplish.!

[KOOLSTUF]

At this point, nobody's prediction for 2012 justifies "betting the farm on it" -- there are too many variables certain to impact and sway any significant blocs of voters, in one direction or another.

Obama and his "Coat-Tailer" Democrats were swept into office because
naive "Newbie" voters and gullible/frustrated Independents wrongly
believed Obama was more likely to wreack "CHANGE" in DC than was McCain. This majority thought what Obama meant about "CHANGE" would be
politicians finally ignoring the sources of their Campaign Funds, and
returning to work on behalf of the Electors. DUH !!!??? That, and
also ending "EARMARKS".

By 2010, those trusting souls finally got tired of holding their collective breath, and also got "fed up" -- after visiting Soup Kitchens instead of grocery stores, for their vittles, given the loss
of gainful employment and/or being evicted from their foreclosed houses.

If Congress fails to end its constant bickering and stalemates, those
gaining entry via the TEA PARTY will bolt from Republican leadership,
and persuade their supporters to finally form a NEW POLITICAL PARTY,
totally divorced from the GOP. Conservative Democrats might even see
doors open for them, in this new political force.

And MAYBE (?????!!!!!) more Electors will finaly cast off their blind allegiances to the GOP and Democrats, to support the NEW MOVEMENT, to
return our government to working for US !!!!

Oh, BTW: YES, I STILL DO believe in Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny,
and the Tooth Fairy !!! (Wouldn't it be nice to be 8 again ???