Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio Results: Why Midwest Swing States Flipped to the GOP

AP Photo/Charles Dharapak

Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin are key swing states in the presidential election.

In 2008, President Obama won all three of these critical Midwest battlegrounds over John McCain. In 2010, however, these states swung to the Republican column in their Senate races which could portend problems for President Obama in 2012.

What happened in the two years that caused these states to turn from blue to red?

The key change has been in the independent vote. In 2008, President Obama won the independent vote in all three states. However, this year the Democratic candidate for Senator lost the independent vote by 36 points in Ohio, 8 points in Pennsylvania, and 12 points in Wisconsin, according to preliminary CBS News exit poll results. (Wisconsin Exit Poll Results | Ohio Exit Poll)

One of the key reasons for the Democrats losing independents in these states in 2006 has to with their lack of support for President Obama and his policies. After having won all three states, President Obama's job approval is now in negative territory. In Pennsylvania, only 47 percent approve of the way Obama is handling his job, in Wisconsin only 46 percent approve, and in Ohio only 44 percent approve. (See the Pennsylvania Exit Poll)

Full Election Results

One policy in particular has caused him problems with independents is health care reform. In the summer of 2009, when health care was hotly debated, Mr. Obama's job approval numbers started to drop in general, and in particular among independents. In each state voters think that their own health care will get worse rather than better by large margins.

High unemployment leading to high economic discontent is another reason for these states voting for Republicans. Voters are rejecting the Democrats because they are the party in power and voters want change. About 9 in 10 voters in these three states say they are very or somewhat worried about the direction of the economy. And among those voters very worried about the direction of the economy they are voting for the Republican by more than 2-1.

The economic discontent is fueling the anger toward the federal government. In each state about more than 6 in 10 voters are either dissatisfied or angry with the federal government. Among those voters who say they are "angry" with the federal government, about 9 in 10 are voting Republican.

Illinois, historically a blue state in presidential elections, also went Republican this year as Mark Kirk defeated Alexi Giannoulias. This is also a symbolic blow to the White House because this was the Senate seat formerly held by Barack Obama. (Illinois Exit Poll)

Full Wisconsin Results
Full Pennsylvania Results
Full Ohio Results
Full Illinois Results

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The New Senators on the Block

Doug Schwartz Ph.D., is the Director of the Quinnipiac University Poll

[RobAla]

This is not rocket science. They flipped because they realized that the big government progressive polices of this President and other Democrats are failing this country. They are sick of watching these people expand government at the expense of businesses and taxpayers. They are sick of a continued 9.5% unemployment caused by these failed polices. We must reduce the federal government to a manageable size, and we need to begin by repealing this stupid health care bill that was forced on a majority of Americans that don't want it.

[mars7578]

The rhetoric was about jobs and just like the Bush tax cuts,the GOP has been able to pin anything its want to on the democrats.Economists generally agree that in the short term less spending means higher unemployment.The DEMS just seem to be dumbfounded by the GOP attacks.Some people don't realize that immediately cutting governmental spending triggers cuts in consumer spending.Expecting companies to hire while demand is decreasing is not going to happen.Of course the GOP got the RIGHT answer,it's not our policies, it is Obamacare and that deregulation bill.

[gep1955]

The marxist democrats have proven thay are the party of the global concept of governance and are willing to sit back and watch Barry, Harry, & Nancy let America become a flagless, borderless outpost that used to be known as The United States. Over our dead bodies!

[gep1955]

I think what has happened is all those employers making over $250k a year have told their employees, "if my taxes go up, one or more of you is going to be laid off". What a radical concept, letting those who have WORKED to achieve some success in their lives keep more of what they have EARNED.

[LIBERALS-lie]

1 reason: OBAMA

[michaelsloans]

extreme dissatifaction. same thing that made them swing the other way two years ago!

[ladyang]

PA is now the midwest? I was born there and I thought we were on the east coast. Did the repugs redistrict the country already?

[msmsucks]

THOSE STATES ARE WHERE THE JOBS WERE. BARRY TOLD THEM HE WOULD BRING THEM BACK AND LIKE ALL THE OTHERS, THAT WAS JUST A BUNCH OF LIES.

THE FAR LEFT ON THE COAST TOO WILL SOON WAKE UP AND SEE THE TAXES.

[LIBERALS-lie]

Si... I mean yes we will.

[JeremyJanson]

Well I'm glad somebody finally woke up. Maybe unlike Connecticut and California, Illinois and Ohio will escape having their middle classes destroyed by "sharing and caring" liberals.

[sjc_1]

Ohio has seen a lot of their manufacturing jobs lost by Republican business managers sending the jobs elsewhere and they still vote GOP. I guess they like suffering.

[JeremyJanson]

Perhaps they realize that the real force driving those jobs away is the liberals in the state capital, who have no problem sacrificing our manufacturing base to create mansions with views for rich people. See, Republicans want to let rich people keep their money, Democrats want to give them what money can't buy.

[sjc_1]

Oh bull, it was not the Ohio legislature nor governor, it was Republicans in the board room and Congress that bled them dry. Working Republicans hope for a few crumbs to fall off the table, but trickle down just never works and the rich get richer at everyone else's expense.