One Day to Go: GOP Poised for House Takeover, but Senate Control Less Likely

CANTON, OH - OCTOBER 30: Supporters listen as U.S. House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) speaks during a rally for Jim Renacci on October 30, 2010 in Canton, Ohio. Boehner, who could be the next Speaker of the House is trying to help Renacci unseat first-term Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH).

/ Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

On the eve of Election Day, a fresh batch of polls are crystallizing predictions that House Republicans will cruise to victory on Tuesday night, due to stronger GOP turnout. The enthusiasm gap may not be enough, however, for the GOP to overtake the Senate.

A new USA Today/Gallup poll all but guarantees that Republicans will win the House. The latest generic ballot survey shows likely voters prefer a Republican candidate over a Democratic candidate, 55 percent to 40 percent. The 15-point gap is "unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations," according to Gallup. The pollster's model predicts Republicans will take anywhere from 60 House seats or more.

But on the Senate side, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report is taking its prediction for Republican gains down a notch, anticipating the GOP to net six to eight seats -- two short of the number needed to win the majority.

"While it is becoming increasingly likely that Republicans will hold all 18 of its own seats, Democrats' prospects in three of their 19 seats have improved in recent days," according to the Cook Report. "Sens. Barbara Boxer in California and Patty Murray in Washington now appear to be headed for re-election, albeit by small margins. In the special election in West Virginia, Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin now holds an advantage."

CBS News' election analysis shows that the GOP would need to win just six of 28 toss-up races to take back the House.

A slew of new polls from Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning firm that conducts automated calls, for the most part supports that analysis. A number of key races will come down to the smallest of margins, according to PPP. Republican candidates hold slight leads in Washington, Illinois and Pennsylvania, while Democrats have the edge in West Virginia and California.

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In Illinois, Republican candidate Mark Kirk leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias 46 percent to 42 percent for President Obama's old Senate seat, according to PPP. Kirk is pulling ahead with more support from independent voters, as well as a significantly higher turnout expected from Republicans. Giannoulias is also hurt by a third party candidate.

In West Virginia, the PPP poll puts Democrat Senate candidate Joe Manchin ahead of Republican John Raese 51 percent to 46 percent, while a new Rasmussen poll similarly has Manchin leading, 50 percent to 46 percent.

Even though Manchin is a popular governor, he has had a hard time escaping affiliation with President Obama and the Democratic party. Manchin over the weekend was calling former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin his friend, even as Palin traveled to the state to campaign for Raese. Manchin, meanwhile, will get some support on the campaign trail from former President Bill Clinton today.

The Senate race in Washington, meanwhile, has put Democratic incumbent Patty Murray neck-and-neck with Republican Dino Rossi. The Republican leads by just two points, 50 percent to 48 percent in the new PPP poll. The race may come down to independent voters, who prefer Rossi, 54 percent to 42 percent, according to PPP.

Murray's campaign has spent nearly $15 million while Rossi's has spend about $2.5 million through September, according to the Associated Press, but outside groups have played an enormous role. According to the Sunlight Foundation, Rossi benefited from about $10.4 million in outside spending while Murray benefited from about $8.2 million.

Colorado also remains a close race. Republican Ken Buck leads Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet by just 49 percent to 48 percent, according to PPP. With other recent polls also giving Buck a slim lead, both Democrats and Republicans are preparing for a possible recount.

Nevada will also come down to the wire. PPP puts Republican Sharron Angle ahead of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid just 47 percent to 46 percent. About 6,600 more Democrats than Republicans have voted early in Nevada, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports, but given that there are 60,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Nevada, it appears GOP voters are more enthusiastic about this election.

Meanwhile, in the critical House race for Nevada's third district, Republican challenger Joe Heck leads Democratic incumbent Dina Titus by 10 points in the latest Mason-Dixon poll, even though the district leans Democratic.

In the race for Virginia's fifth district -- seen as something of a bellwether district for how well Democrats can maintain support from Obama voters -- Democratic incumbent Tom Perriello continues to trail Republican challenger Robert Hurt in a survey from the GOP pollster Glen Bolger.

If Republicans are able to pull off a huge upset tomorrow, one race they could take would be Rhode Island's first district, where Democratic Rep. Patrick Kennedy is retiring. RNC Chairman Michael Steele predicted this morning that Republican John Loughlin will beat Democrat David Cicilline.

11 Photos

The 10 Most Controversial Statements of the 2010 Campaign

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Stephanie Condon is a political reporter for CBSNews.com. You can read more of her posts here. Follow Hotsheet on Facebook and Twitter.

[msimamaji]

Jobs. That's the issue.
Before you cast their vote, remember these words:
"There is no job that is America's God-given right anymore."

Those are the sacred words of Carly Fiorina, California's Republican candidate for the Senate
If you vote for the GOP, you can expect more tax cuts to export American jobs over seas. In addition, you can expect more imported "guest" worker who will accept slave labor wages. You can expect Congress to repeal the minimum wage law and unemployment insurance. This will be a boon to corporations as they compete to slash American wages and fringe benefits. For wage earners, it will be a race to the bottom.

So if you vote Republican and get a pink slip just before Christmas - Remember, you had a fair warning.

[cannuc]

I wont matter who is power.. The lobbyists are the real string pullers.
http://abrahamsays.blogspot.com/2010/11/how-to-kill-america-with-suit-case-of.html

[formrusmcsgt]

by chevyhotrod November 2, 2010 6:32 AM EDT "American's are smart enough to know that the Democrats were in control of congress when the economy was brought to its knees."______________________Smart Americans know that the Repubs controlled the Senate for all 8 of Bush's years and controlled the House for all but the last two years. So the dems NEVER controlled Congress during Dubya's term. You're either extremely ignorant or simply like to tell lies......

[blitzder]

Amazing to see that Americans are electing the same republicans who brought the economy to its knees. What is wrong with Americans??

[cheekyholmes]

I call *********! If the GOP wins anything, this country's going down the tubes. The people who vilify the government shouldn't be running the government.

[newsterI]

A new USA Today/Gallup poll all but guarantees that Republicans will win the House. "
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Oh how nice, so now we'll watch the next TWO YEARS go by and nothing get done when the repubicscums block every single bill and proposal with gridlock, marvelous 1770's era system we are stuck with. If you think it's bad now, just see what two years of gridlock does to the economy, jobs and everything else, those aholes in congress will get NOTHING done, every bill that comes out will be voted down.
Y'all may as well throw the towel in now folks, cause this could be the beginning of end of what we know of as the USA.
Jobs are gone, they aint coming back, health care, well, that's going to be repealed and ditched, trying to get away from OIL with renewable energy, well, forget that, those programs will be gutted and repealed to ensure we stay addicted to the Arab oil, let's not forget the controls on banks and credits cards, you can expect to go back to having your interest jacked up to 30% when you are one day late on the payment or some unrelated utility bill was paid late.
Yup. let's alljust go right back to the repubicscums that gave us the previous 8 year fiasco because we think a whole year and a half has been too long to reverse all the problems and two wars from the previous EIGHT years that got us in the mess we are to begin with.

[wjksea]

robe59 November 1, 2010 9:28 PM EDT
Laugh about, shout about it when you've got to choose--
Every way you look at it you lose!

Paul Simon 1968
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Just as one would suspect. A teaparty boomer, another one who never had nor ever will have a vision for the posterity of this nation. A generation known in the 70s as the "me" generation. They inherited a strong nation and their era of self-absorbtion and instant gratification left the nation strung out and rapidly polarizing into the stagnant existence similar to the old European monarchies that the founders fought hard against.

[wjksea]

get_involved November 1, 2010 10:12 PM EDT
Don't forget the DEMOCRATIC Health Care bill CUTS $500 BILLION out of Medicare!
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Well then it seems you would be voting Democratic to end the socialism.

[alongawaitedfriend]

It should be interesting to see how the Republicans propose to create jobs in this country. There is a long list of things we don't make in this country anymore, so that's out. All those jobs have gone overseas to the folks who can work for $2 a day. We can't really build houses and commercial buildings. No demand for that. Lots of houses in foreclosure from the previous bubble, plus commercial properties are in trouble. Because of the internet, all sorts of jobs have gone away and won't be coming back, particularly in the print media business.

So, tell us Republicans, where are all these jobs going to come from as we enjoy all this "freedom of choice" in our economy? Oh yeah, and we still have to pay the interest on all that debt we accumulated during that "false prosperity" that David Stockman, Reagan's lap dog, talked about on 60 minutes the other night.

You all thought the Great Recession was bad? Wait till the Republicans give us "Great Depression II", authored by the same philosophies that gave us the first one. It's gonna be a rough ride.

[propitiation]

The Left Wing Media has continually attacked the Tea Party movement. The Truth is that in the Senate the Tea Party Candidates are doing very well. Emotionally, the person that I want to see win the most, and the other guy lose the most is Rand Paul vs. Jack Conway. The last poll shows Rand Paul ahead +15%. :)

[infantryman1968]

by askagain November 1, 2010 9:12 PM EDT
infantryman1968 - Here is the flaw in your logic. Obama may have veto power but the Republicans will be able to block much of the legislation Obama wants passed. Also, the House controls the money. Those who want to stop the Democrats in their tracks will be able to do so. Now that makes for a good laugh.

LOL!

GWB will get the last laugh on you and kevjustice tomarrow lib!

[kevjustice]

80% of the public wants COMPROMISE. the tea party must learn the definition of that word. the party of "no" will no longer work AS IT WILL HAVE TO SHOW IT IS COMPROMISING WITH OBAMA.

[newsterI]

. Also, the House controls the money. Those who want to stop the Democrats in their tracks will be able to do so. Now that makes for a good laugh.
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Hope you are still laughing when GRIDLOCK for two years destroys the recovery and we go into a depression worse than '29, the small amount of recovery isn't going to last under gridlock or repubiscum NO on everything.