Four Days to Go: How Big Will the GOP Wave Be?

California Republican Senate candidate Carly Fiorina is behind in the polls right now but could pull off a victory if the GOP has a strong showing on Election Day.

/ AP

Updated at 1:15 p.m. ET

Democrats have one weekend left to mitigate their losses on Election Day, but with just four days left to campaign, Washington's political prognosticators are calling the House for the GOP but predicting Republicans will fall short of winning the Senate -- though there may be a few surprises there.

Nate Silver of the New York Times predicts Republicans will net 53 seats on Nov. 2 -- well above the 39 needed to win control. Similarly, the Cook Political Report predicts Democrats will suffer a net loss of between 48 and 60 seats. "The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified," the report says.

In the Senate, Cook expects to see seven to nine seats go to Republicans -- just short of the 10 needed for a takeover. The Rothenberg Political Report is predicting GOP gains of 55 to 65 in the House.

CBS News' analysis, meanwhile, shows Republicans netting 33 seats, with 25 more toss-up races in Democratic seats still up for grabs. If Republicans win in six of the 25 toss-ups, and they also net the 33 where we see them favored today, that would give the GOP the House.

University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who publishes the UVA Center for Politics' "Crystal Ball" each election cycle, is predicting Republicans will net 55 seats in the House and eight seats in the Senate.

Sabato says the GOP should be able to hold all of its open Senate seats -- in Floriday, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio -- while picking up several more. The races in Colorado, Illinois, Nevada and Pennsylvania "are so tight that a strong breeze could change the result," he wrote.

The latest polls out of Nevada do not look good for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. A new Mason-Dixon poll shows conservative Republican Sharron Angle beating Reid by four points, 49 percent to 45 percent. Other recent polls also gave Angle a four-point lead.

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The Tea Party-backed candidate will get a boost this weekend from an appearance by Sen. John McCain this weekened. The Nevada Democratic Party is taking Angle to task for associating with the Arizona Republican, who they say does not have Nevada's interests in mind. "McCain supports shipping dangerous nuclear waste to a dump in Nevada - but not through his home state of Arizona!" the party said in a statement. "He opposes UFC mixed martial arts, a popular sport that draws tourists from around the world to Nevada and provides substantial economic benefits."

In Pennsylvania, polls also consistently show the Democratic candidate just a few points behind. A Rasmussen poll from today puts Republican Pat Toomey ahead of Democratic candidate Joe Sestak, 50 percent to 46 percent.

Early voting in the state does not bode well for Democrats, the Wall Street Journal reports. The Pennsylvania secretary of state's office reports that Republicans have turned in 53,226 absentee ballots so far, while Democrats have only turned in 37,631.

Critical Contests: CBS News Election 2010 Race Ratings

See all Ratings for Senate, House and Governors in an Interactive Map (Updated Oct. 25)

President Obama is slated to appear in Philadelphia tomorrow to mobilize Democrats, and First Lady Michelle Obama will attend a rally on Monday night in Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, the Senate race in Wisconsin looks increasingly secure for Republicans. Embattled Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold trails his Republican challenger Ron Johnson by nine points in a new Public Policy Polling survey. Other recent polls also put Johnson ahead.

The incumbent is making a new appeal to voters with an ad that takes a positive, relaxed tone. In a plaid shirt, Feingold says, "I work for you, so I've been an independent voice for Wisconsin and the No. 1 enemy of the Washington lobbyists."

While prospects look bleak for Democrats in Wisconsin, the party is taking a fresh look at Alaska. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is investing in Democratic Senate candidate Scott McAdams' campaign, now that some polls show him competitive. The DSCC clearly sees its opposition as Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who is running as a write-in after being ousted in the Republican primary.

"Lisa Murkowski votes for bailouts and big deficits in Washington, D.C. so she can win favor with big wig Republican leaders in the Congress. She even voted to risk Social Security in the stock market and cut Medicare," DSCC spokesperson Eric Schultz said in a statement. "It's all about her, not Alaska."

Murkowski actually seems poised to win, even though running a successful write-in campaign is a rarity. "Joe Miller's constant gaffes and controversies have actually put Murkowski in a position to win," Sabato said.

If Republicans are having an especially good night, they may win California, where Republican Carly Fiorina has been running a competitive race against Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer.

The Democrat, however, has widened her lead, according to a new Field Poll that puts Boxer ahead, 49 percent to 41 percent.

The stakes in the race are evident by the large sums groups are spending. Groups with undisclosed donors have spent $5.61 million in the Senate race, according to the watchdog group the Sunlight Foundation, with $4.6 million coming from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in support of Fiorina.

The Republican candidate is back on the campaign trail after spending a night in the hospital to fight an infection related to surgery she underwent after suffering from breast cancer. On ABC's "Good Morning America" today, Fiorina decried Boxer's record as a "career politician," criticizing the Democrat for, among other things, voting against military appropriations at times.

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Stephanie Condon is a political reporter for CBSNews.com. You can read more of her posts here. Follow Hotsheet on Facebook and Twitter.

[askagain]

The Democrats will be neutered in a few days. With a projected tie of 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans in the senate and the house controlled by the Republicans, the Democrats will be brought to a sudden halt. Payback time is right around the corner. This makes a lot of people happy.

[element51]

To the-one-king......One question...how much is the republican party paying you to sit at the computer all day putting out their propaganda? I'm wondering if you are classified part time or full time and will you have to pay taxes on your earnings or are they under the table?

[1musicwayne]

How informed is our electorate? We might be stuck again with politicians who rushed through unread bills, approved 9000 earmarks, blocked preemptive mortgage reform, put grandkids into hopeless debt, and allowed slick congressional side deals for health care passage. The "drunken abuse of power" crowd.

[jem0309]

the gop was out to get obama from the beginning. they opposed anything and everything, even bills that they normally would support such as small business tax breaks. when the dems tried to compromise, those who feigned bipartisanship in the gop inserted their changes then turned around and backed out in the end, at the behest of the likes of beck and limbaugh. they have become an extremist party, trying to expel any centrists and demonize anyone who doesn't think exactly like them. it is sad that americans are so misinformed. most support the major provisions of the health care bill (in fact a huge part of those dissatisfied with the bill want it go further), support ending 'don't ask, don't tell', support ending the tax breaks for the wealthiest, support the termination of the privatization of student loans...yet want to vote in the party of no who put us in the greatest recession in decades and want to take us back in time to the same failed policies and corporate favoritism. the gop cares only about winning elections. i admire every one of the dems who voted for the health care bill, knowing it would probably end their career in congress yet doing so because bringing health care to 30+ million americans and ending despicable practices was right.

[Green8019]

Yeah, let's put the Greedy Old Party back in power again so they can screw things up even bigger this time and add another $3.5 trillion to our deficit with their tax breaks for the ultra-rich (less than 2% of the country)!!

It truly is amazing how quickly people forget and how they want to once again wallow in their own bucket of mud just because it is warm........

[noloyalisti]

If you are foolish enough to vote Republican you will get what you deserve. More government and wars, less jobs and money in your pocket, less rights and freedoms. Don't you remember what was happening during the 8 nightmare years of the Bushoccio Crime Family and the GOP rule?

Obama and the Dems were handed a completely effed up country by the Repubicans. I guess that was their plan to take back power in 2010.

[ATLCurtis]

the gop wave will be like the fart in my pants! a little stinky but basiclly useless!

[taxchurches]

Hilarious stuff. So, in two years, when nothing has changed, will Americans still be all mad, stomping their lil tootsies, and telling their representatives, "I hate you! I'm telling mom! Go home, I don't wanna play with you any more!" What a country of spoiled children. But you better get used to it. It's over. On 10 Sept 01 Americans were macho and swaggering, unmindful of the consequences, convinced that their lives would be Coca-Cola and XBoxes forever until an imagined Second Coming. All it took to shatter this silly myth was a few jetliners and a little determination, and it has been utter chaos ever since. Bin Laden wanted to destroy America, and he did it, but only because you let him. Everything America has done since 11 Sept 01 has played directly into the hands of terror. They couldn't possibly have expected their plan to net such success, and they couldn't be happier today because of it.

[david4673]

Very astute comment. I do have hope for the future, however. We have a new generation (the sea change is still moving, a bit of backwash this year won't stop it) emerging that doesn't have the "terror gene" so prevalent. Coupled with our acceptance of multiple cultures, this puts a stake in the "fear of the other" doctrine and silences the voices that use it to hold power.

Of course, when those aliens come from outer space..... (hehehee)

[Spyder222]

Obama rises to power because he promises people benefits that others will pay for.
The tea partiers are angry that this country's leadership is apologizing for what we have built, for opening our borders to unchecked immigration (the only country in the world to do so) for punishing those who achieve while rewarding those who don't, for seeking votes from those to whom gifts are promised, for failing to protect our borders, The brain dead lefties call people racist for not toeing the party line. Calling names is all they have left. There are two words that should put an end to socialism and did in some parts of the world, that is "Berlin Wall."
Some of us remember.

[pasha128]

With $10 TRILLION in debt from Republican Presidents (REAGAN, BUSH THE ELDER And BUSH THE YOUNGER) disbursing the assets of the US treasury and numerous foreign countries to their ultra rich supporters and another $3 trillion plus in future liabilities from legislation passed during the Bush Administration for the next 10 years alone. The Republicans have currently committed to spending the entire national debt to date in just three administrations.

[david4673]

Spyder... Anyone who thinks the Berlin Wall "put an end to socialism" does not remember with any form of accuracy. But as evidenced by every other point you made here, you don't care about accuracy.

Tragic how woefully uninformed so many Americans are -- but a glimmer of hope exists when we see the photographs of these "give ME my liberty, screw you on yours" tea party types, the natural progression of age assures us they will not hold back progress for long.

[sharkboy234]

They going to lose seats Democrats will stop the GOP wave.

[wjksea]

The world should discover the American dream. It shouldn't be the other way around. We cannot end up like Latin America and Saudi Arabia.