The Fat Lady Can Wait to Sing, This Election Is Not Over (Op-Ed)

CBS

Guest column by Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons, a CBS News contributor

In 2007 and early 2008, pundits and prognosticators following the national polls confidently predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee for president. They were wrong for much the same reason that the talk of a Republican takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives is overstated today: the national electorate doesn't vote in state-by-state elections. The facts on the ground mean the fat lady can wait a bit longer to sing, this election is not over yet.

Looking at the national polls, the situation is dire for the Democrats. In the latest Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll, Republicans have a 6 percent advantage over Democrats (48%-42%) in the generic ballot and 64 percent of voters feel the nation is on the wrong track. If congressional elections were a national referendum where typical midterm voters were the only ones to show up Democrats would surely lose.

Facing this national environment, Democrats have been focused for the last few months on doing what the Obama campaign did - changing the math on the ground in key states. While getting African Americans and young voters out to the polls in key races is important, the party is also focused on irregular Democratic voters who show up in presidential years but not as often in midterms.

Not only does the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee report ground operations in over 65 congressional districts but Organizing for America, the successor organization to the Obama campaign has gotten fully integrated into state parties all over the country. They have been knocking on doors, calling voters and sending them mail to remind them to show up for the Democrats in this election.

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One staffer told me that OFA and the Democratic National Committee helped state parties contact more African American voters in September than they contacted in all of 2006. Meanwhile the Republican National Committee has been plagued by reports of a more lackluster GOTV effort, including cutting their program to send congressional staffers to districts and denying state parties the cash to compete with Democratic ground troops.

President Barack Obama and Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., embrace during a rally at the University of Washington in Seattle, Thursday, Oct. 21, 2010.

/ AP Photo/Susan Walsh

To get those core Democrats even more "fired up and ready to go," President Obama, Vice President Biden, the first lady and former President Bill Clinton have been traveling the country holding rallies, cutting campaign ads and raising money.

While Republicans and their allies spent much of the summer trying to run up the score on vulnerable Democrats, it does not seem to have worked. Democrats smartly held their advertising fire until voters were most likely to be paying attention in the fall and focused intently on the weaknesses of their opponents.

All of this activity looks like it is paying off. The polls on the ground in states tell a different story than the national narrative. While there are an unprecedented number of House Democrats fighting off stiff challenges, candidates who appeared far more vulnerable at the beginning of the year are still in the fight. Some Democrats in conservative districts that the GOP should win are doing pretty well like Bobby Bright in Alabama and Mike Acuri in New York and others who should be far behind are deadlocked like Lincoln Davis in Tennessee, Patrick Murphy in Pennsylvania and Dina Titus in Nevada to name a few.

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Those who watch early voting returns are beginning to see a pattern too. Democrats are voting in greater numbers than Republicans in the first counts from many of these contests.

Strength at the top of the ticket should help as well. The Democratic Senate candidates in Pennsylvania and Illinois are closing strong. In states like California and New York with Democratic registration advantages and strong Democratic candidates for governor and. Senate, that momentum should help congressional candidates too. In Georgia, Roy Barnes is running a credible campaign for governor and Michael Thurmond, the African American facing a daunting challenge in the Senate race should help drive up turnout among black voters that would help congressional candidates Sanford Bishop and Jim Marshall's chances.

None of this means that Republicans won't score big on Election Day. All of the third party money available to GOP campaigns is bad news enough, giving Republicans more chances to make something happen than usual. That said, while greater Democratic enthusiasm in early voting and a stronger ground game may not be able to make up seven points, any Democrat within two or three points of a Republican should have a good shot at winning.

In one week, we will know whether Democratic efforts to build a few sea walls were effective in saving enough candidates from the effects of the storm to maintain their majorities.

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Election 2010: On the Campaign Trail

[crazyname]

She has, just the people Obama is making contact with are too blind or ill informed to know that Obama is a failure. His lies don't seem to catch up with him, and if they do, the people ignore them or just don't care! Why, who knows, a lot has to do with the media covering for him and his administration.

[gep1955]

$5,000 billion added to the national debt, unemployment approaching 10%, IRS is fastest expanding gov't employer, politicians bribed to vote for socialist policies, congress adjurns without budget vote, taxing employers so they can't hire, Polosi says food stamps create jobs, Obama and Geitner say America's best days are past, and using the constitution for toilet paper. Yep, I can't wait to vote democrat.

[LIBERALS-lie]

Didnt Aretha sign at the 2008 ceremony ?

[morriswise]

Only a swift kicking no holds barred bull **** president can force unemployed men to work. She also would take no crap from lazy a-s congressmen who refuse to pass her legislation. Obama was not the one to take on the system, but a bull **** will kick butt and have the good times roll again.

[dance-like-devrish25]

Na-na-na-na...Na-na-na-na...Hey-hey-hey...Good-bye. Na-na-na-na...Na-na-na-na...Hey-hey-hey...Good-bye.______Hey dems, don't the door hit you in the butt on they way out_____Everyone, Na-na-na-na...Na-na-na-na...Hey-hey-hey...Good-bye. Na-na-na-na...Na-na-na-na...Hey-hey-hey...Good-bye!

[usunus]

Jamal forgot to tell us about the power of the union money,which will ultimately trounce the Republicans and their henchmen and their secret money in the midterms and provide a huge win for Obama in 2012.

[dance-like-devrish25]

Unions...the b*stard child of socialists and the mafia. Get paid based not on what you can do, but who you know to get you in.

[md14450]

Unless you are willing to wait the next TWO years for the Republicans to do anything about the economy, vote Democrat.

Republicans have vowed to defeat Obama and the Democrats in 2012. It is the Republicans' primary (and only) goal for the next TWO years. Simply doing nothing about the economy will achieve this goal for the Republicans. For the unemployed, this means waiting at least TWO more years before the Republicans will even have reason to be concerned about high unemployment. It simply is not in the Republicans' best self-interest to do anything about the economy before the 2012 elections. Obama, on the other hand, must turn the economy around to win re-election in 2012. Doing nothing will make the 2012 elections an easy win for the Republicans. So unless your savings will last that long, VOTE DEMOCRAT!!! You would at least increase your chances of finding a job in the next TWO years.

[ET4321]

Obama should secure our border with Mexico. He should atleast go to the border states instead of putting up signs for Americans to stay away! Remember he won't work "with" the republicans. "hand to hand combat"

[inketolstoy]

"As this campaign wears on it may well turn out to be about the difference between the law and order offered by the Democrats and the violence and anarchy proposed by the Tea Party Republicans"
- variablespanner

You progressives are creaping me out with your Orwellian "truthspeak". You guys sound like your stealing your slogans from old 1930's, 40's, and 50's soviet propoganda posters. We are ten years into a new century. Come up with some better sounding lies.

[rickwarre]

Dems: Simple advice, Nov 2nd, get off your seat and vote. Prior to that, tell you friends and family to vote.

Remind them, it's Republicans that got us here, and if they truly want healthcare reform( with a public option)the Republicans won't give it to them. If they want banking and investment regulation, Republicans won't give it to them.

[RobAla]

Democrats have controlled Congress since the 2006 election. The blame Bush, blame Republican song has gotten old. Look around. Look at what the progressives in Washington have done to our nation over the past 21 months. It is sickening. They have grown the federal government on the backs of suffering businesses and taxpayers. They need to go home, and be replaced by people who are experienced and knowledgeable about practical matters of economics. Enough with the social experiment.

[underdogus007]

I stand ready to pledge loyalty to President Obama and to serve in any United Nations army he might raise to take control of the USA if disloyal elements cause trouble.

Just as Lincoln suspended the constitution I believe Obama should brook no turmoil if the Tea movement becomes too unruly

I would very much like to serve in a FEMA camp. The sooner "birthers", "truthers", home school advocates and antivaccination proponents are rounded up and detained the better.