Election 2010 Morning Memo: Tightening Senate Races and 6 Other Campaign Storylines
From now through Election Day, CBS News chief political consultant Marc Ambinder will provide his keys to understanding the state of the campaign:
Rand Paul, at left, and Jack Conway
/ APMore competitive seats could mean that Democrats do better than expected, but more likely it means that Republicans have a better shot to pick up more Senate seats. In Kentucky, Jack Conway continues to question Rand Paul's college flirtation with religious hijinks, and Dems say it appears to be working, leading to a softening of Paul's support among hard-line evangelicals.
In Missouri, several newspapers have bitten on a story that the DSCC has long been shopping about Roy Blunt and an illegal immigrant. It's an old story, but there's new coverage of it. I don't think it'll be enough to help Robin Carnahan.
2. Despite the influx of money from the Chamber of Commerce and outside Republican groups, Democrats have enough money to keep enough House seats in play through November 2. The DNC has raised more than $11 million through the start of the year, and the DCCC has about $30 million to play with.
Critical Contests: CBS News Election 2010 Race Ratings
See all Ratings for Senate, House and Governors in an Interactive Map (Updated Oct. 18)
4. Early voting returns from the two major population centers in Nevada are positive for Sharron Angle. It's very early, but she's doing better than expected in Clark County and running away with them in Reno. Democrats are excited about early numbers they're seeing from Iowa and Ohio. In Ohio, the gubernatorial race is especially important for the party to win, as are seats on the reapportionment board, which helps draw the district lines.
5. Interesting story in The Hill notes something obvious: President Obama's leaving for a major overseas trip almost immediately after the election, leaving the country to... triumphant Republicans, probably, and their efforts to define the way the election is looked at. Also: since when does the president of the United States submit to be a warm-act for a comedian? Next Wednesday. Comparisons to Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck aren't apt.
6. This race is over, but John McCain's ad against his opponent Rodney Glassman is one of the funniest I've seen: it's worth viewing. Glassman is an actual opera singer, for those who wonder.
7. Coming December 2: "The Kennedy Detail," by one of the agents who guarded Kennedy on 11/22/1963.
The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder is CBS News' chief political consultant. You can read more of his posts in Hotsheet here. You can also follow him on Twitter.
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The American people and American small business want lower taxes for EVERYONE while Obama, Pelosi, Reid, and the rest of the Democrats will raise taxes on some and probably everyone to pay for the reckless spending they put in place.
The American people and American small business want smaller government while Obama, Pelosi, Reid, and the rest of the Democrats have and plan to continue to greatly increase the size of government.
The American people and American small business want less government intervention into their lives and private affaires while Obama, Pelosi, Reid, and the rest of the Democrats will continue to expand onerous regulation which raises costs, reduces the standard of living, and inhibits job growth.
The American people and American small business did not want the so-called healthcare reform while Obama, Pelosi, Reid, and the rest of the Democrats continue to ignore how this law will cost the American people and small businesses more, reduce choice in healthcare, and restrict access to healthcare for many people.
The current Administration and current Congress must realize a large portion of the American people are fed up with high taxes, big government, and obtrusive government meddling in the private lives of people, business, and the economy. The American people what lower taxes, lower government spending, and smaller government.
As long as our government continues the reckless spending, high taxes, and unprecedented meddling with businesses, we cannot expect real long term growth.
The Congress and current Administration have put the country on a course of reckless government spending that has mortgaged the future of all Americans especially future generations. The only way to fix this long term structural problem is to create a pro-growth atmosphere for business. To do this we must reduce taxes NOW. How many different taxes does a business or individual pay on a regular basis? We must eliminate number and complexity of all these taxes and reduce the tax burden.
We also need to end the micro-management of business and the economy. Until we GREATLY reduce the tax burden on business and consumers and remove the senseless regulations that accomplish little in relation to the cost they impose, our future is bleak.
REMEMBER IN NOVEMBER...VOTE THEM OUT!!!
The following are Toss Up States according to Real Clear Politics. What I putting are the averages of recent polls, and they are very tight races indeed!
CO - Buck (R) +1.0%/IL - Kirk (R) +1.7%/NV (R) Angle +0.4%/Penn. (R) Toomey +2.0%/KY - (R) Paul +3.3%/CA - (D) Boxer +1.0%/Wash. - (D) Murray +2.2%/WV - (D) Manchin +1.5%
There are two states that I think the poll average numbers are "skewed"
Pennsylvannia - The newer numbers look good for Sestak (D), and I believe that when they are this tight Pennsylvania ALWAYS swings to the Democrat Pro-Abort, & West Virginia - There is one Partisan Poll that went too high for Manchin (D), the last Poll showed Raese (R), ahead by +7%. I believe that Raese is actually leading in that State, and that CBS and Manchin's try of "The Hickey," (not to be confused with "The Gilroy" from Ocean 13), has failed.
However, the middle class got its biggest tax break courtesy of President Obama. In fact a large chunk of the stimulus program went into a tax break.
Obama and his Democratic allies want to extend the tax cuts to the middle class, but allow the tax cuts to the upper 2 % to expire. The Republicans on the other hand want to give away billions of subsidies to the rich so they can continue to off-shore American jobs. In fact, California's Senatorial candidate Carly Fiorina fired thousands of American workers and off-shored their jobs so she could give herself all sorts pay raises, including a severance package when she got fired from Hewlitt-Packard. Gubernatorial candidate, Meg Whitman fired 20,000 employees so she could get a pay raise. Fiorina and Whitman, both ex-CEO's who got fired from their jobs represent the Republican Party. In addition to off-shoring American jobs, Republicans want to balance the budget by eliminating Social Security and Medicare.
If we really want to balance the budget, we need to cut all the tax-cut goodies for the rich. According to a 2008 report by the Urban Institute, we lose $ 1 trillion dollars a year from useless tax deductions and preferences that benefit only the super rich. (Source: Economic Recovery and Fiscal Balance" by John Irons of the Economic Policy Institute, American Prospect, November, 2010)
The super-rich always want tax breaks, and in return, they off-shore American jobs and give their employees salary cuts. If the Middle Class wants to keep their tax cuts, they need to vote for Democrats.
Vinyl wall paper and vinyl floors could be hazardous to your health, according to a report by Linda Carroll released on MNBC October 18. 2000 wall and floor coverings contain cadmium, lead and phthalates, chemicals that can cause asthma, learning disabilities, birth defects, liver toxicity and cancer. Congress, under the Obama Administration, banned these chemicals from children's toys and child care products in 2009.
Now phthalate is back. It's present in wall paper and floors.
The Republican party wants to eliminate all government regulations on the economy. They want to shut down the EPA, the OSHA, and the CPSA. The Republicans and the Tea Party movement will give corporations a green light to manufacture and sell all sorts of toxic products. There will be no way of informing consumers and there will be no punishments if polluters are caught.
The increase of toxic substances will increase health care costs as more people and more children get sick. If Republicans eliminate healthcare reforms, a lot of people will find themselves without health care coverage and without MEDICAID.
The public needs to wake up. The Republicans are getting millions of dollars in campaign contributions from corporations. And in exchange corporations will get a green light to poison America. For the GOP only the dollar is sacred.
Oh yes! Make the unemployed have to buy Health Care Insurance! The average person on Unemployment currently can go to a Country Clinic and get a Doctor Appointment, and Lab for $60.00, a stay at the hospital is very low. Now, with this Bill the average person on Unemployment, ($15K per year), has to purchase a monthly premium at it's either 2.1% or 2.4%, (I can't remember the amount on pg. 400ish something of a 1,200 page boondoggle), of their yearly salary or pay a fine, a higher fine, and then go to jail. Jerks! Even a Commie, or Marxist system is better than President Obama's plan!
The Republicans want to eliminate Medicare and replace it with some sort of voucher system which they will eventually eliminate. This puts senior citizes at the mercy of private health insurance companies, who may decide to reject them for a number of pre-existing conditions. If the Republicans scrap health care reform, they will also eliminate many measures that will make Medicare more solfent.
The Republicans want to eliminate social security. They may speak differently now, but once elected they will shut down the government until they shut down social security. Republicans from Paul Ryan, to Alan Simpson, to Rand Paul, to John Raese have pledged to eliminate socialsecurity which they view as a great Ponzi scheme.
The Republicans want to eliminate the minimum wage - that's one of the major talking points of both John Raese and Rand Paul. Eliminating minimum wage and unemployment will generate a race to the bottom. Employees will have to accept huge wage cuts or get replaced by some one who will work for less. Next, employers will insist on wage-free try=out periods or internships. Potential employees will be willing to work for free for several months. Of course, at the end of the intership period,they can expect to be fired.
So if you vote Republican, a pink slip will be in your future - Guaranteed.