September 7, 2010 5:37 PM

Gallup Generic Ballot Back to Even

By
Brian Montopoli
Topics
Polling

(Credit: CBS/ AP)
Forget about that 10 point Republican advantage: Gallup's latest poll showing the generic ballot preferences of registered voters finds a generic Republican tied with a generic Democrat at 46 percent.

Last week, Gallup showed Republicans leading 51 percent to 41 percent, fueling speculation about a coming GOP wave in the midterm elections. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee e-mailed the latest poll to reporters almost immediately after it came out in an effort to push back against that narrative.

Republicans have led in the generic ballot survey for the past five weeks, but there has been plenty of movement in the poll this year. At one point this summer, Gallup showed Democrats leading the generic ballot 49 percent to 43 percent.

While Democrats will welcome the latest returns, they should probably keep their celebration muted: Republicans continue to hold a 25 percentage point lead over Democrats when it comes to whether party members are "very enthusiastic" about voting in the 2010 midterm elections. It remains likely that Democrats will lose at least 25 seats in the House in November, and their 39-seat majority is very much at risk.

Still, the latest poll means that pundits may want to reconsider some of their comments tied to the returns last week, which offered the largest Republican lead in Gallup's generic ballot since the company began surveying voters on the question in 1942. Politico, for example, deemed the returns the sign of a "title wave" and suggested that it "reinforces the rapidly forming prevailing view that the horizon is as bleak for Democrats as it ever has been."

Brian Montopoli is a political reporter for CBSNews.com. You can read more of his posts here. Follow Hotsheet on Facebook and Twitter.

Add a Comment
by actornaught September 14, 2010 12:27 PM EDT
"Generic" candidates, and other such non-specific polls are a bit silly, and that would account for the 10 point swing in one week.

The best we can do at this time is state-by-state polls of actual candidates, and those polls show an almost perfect 50/50 split is looming in both houses of congress.
Reply to this comment
by RobAla September 9, 2010 12:16 PM EDT
Nice try Mr.Montopoli: This is not the entire picture.

CBS News: September 7, 2010: Stephanie Condon:

A series of polls released today paint a grim picture for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections. Likely voters surveyed say they favor Republicans over Democrats, and they trust the GOP more to handle issues like the economy.

In a Washington Post/ABC News poll, 53 percent of likely voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district if the midterm elections were today, while 40 percent would vote for the Democrat. (Worth noting: the two parties are nearly tied when it comes to the preferences of voters overall, not just likely voters.)

Among voters overall, independents -- a critical voting bloc -- say they would support Republican over Democratic candidates in their House districts by a 13-point margin.

And 55 percent of voters overall in the poll said it's more important to have Republicans lead Congress to serve as a check on President Obama's agenda than to have Democrats in control to support Mr. Obama's agenda. Just 39 percent said the opposite.

Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll showed voters split, 43 percent to 43 percent, about whether they favored a Republican-controlled Congress or a Democratically-controlled Congress. Likely voters, however, favor a Republican-controlled Congress, 49 percent to 40 percent.

The economic outlook among those surveyed by the Wall Street Journal is pessimistic -- just 26 percent think the economy is going to get better in the next year, down from 47 percent a year earlier. As many as 61 percent say the country is on the wrong track.
Reply to this comment
by Chapeltepec September 8, 2010 11:57 AM EDT
Gentlemen, please curb your enthusiasm for your liberal friends! Accurate polls don't swing by 10 points from one week to the next with no significant events to drive them so. For those who believe they do, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I would like to sell you!
Reply to this comment
by tsigili September 8, 2010 11:38 AM EDT
That just means they really don't know anything about what they are doing, and anything they say has to disregarded.
Reply to this comment
by RobAla September 8, 2010 6:51 AM EDT
Nice try Mr.Montopoli: This is not the entire picture.

CBS News: September 7, 2010: Stephanie Condon:

A series of polls released today paint a grim picture for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections. Likely voters surveyed say they favor Republicans over Democrats, and they trust the GOP more to handle issues like the economy.

In a Washington Post/ABC News poll, 53 percent of likely voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district if the midterm elections were today, while 40 percent would vote for the Democrat. (Worth noting: the two parties are nearly tied when it comes to the preferences of voters overall, not just likely voters.)

Among voters overall, independents -- a critical voting bloc -- say they would support Republican over Democratic candidates in their House districts by a 13-point margin.

And 55 percent of voters overall in the poll said it's more important to have Republicans lead Congress to serve as a check on President Obama's agenda than to have Democrats in control to support Mr. Obama's agenda. Just 39 percent said the opposite.

Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll showed voters split, 43 percent to 43 percent, about whether they favored a Republican-controlled Congress or a Democratically-controlled Congress. Likely voters, however, favor a Republican-controlled Congress, 49 percent to 40 percent.

The economic outlook among those surveyed by the Wall Street Journal is pessimistic -- just 26 percent think the economy is going to get better in the next year, down from 47 percent a year earlier. As many as 61 percent say the country is on the wrong track.
Reply to this comment
by Dave_P6 September 8, 2010 1:28 AM EDT
PEOPLE: PLEASE GET OUT THERE AND VOTE DEMOCRAT FOR MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND TELL YOUR FRIENDS AND NEIGHBORS TO DO THE SAME!!
Reply to this comment
by pissy September 7, 2010 8:38 PM EDT
Amazing swing in just one weeks time! Specially since Rasmussen Reports just published an increase of two basis points bringing the total generic spread to 12%.

Since it was a quite week I wonder what sparked the reversal of attitudes? I guess Gallup is proving it is not the question but who you poll that counts!
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