September 2, 2010 4:09 PM

Larry Sabato Predicts GOP Will Take Back House This Fall

By
Christine Delargy
Topics
Campaign 2010 ,
Washington Unplugged

With sixty days left to campaign, University of Virginia Politics Professor Larry Sabato gave the Democratic party a bit of a shock this morning, predicting that Republicans would dominate midterm elections, winning a majority in the House and picking up eight or nine seats in the Senate.

"The Democratic position has deteriorated very badly over the summer. In some cases in private polls, the bottom has fallen out for Democrats. It's mainly due to the bad economy and Democrats are seen as having over-promised and under-delivered," Sabato told CBS News Congressional correspondent Nancy Cordes on Thursday's "Washington Unplugged."

"It's also due to Republican enthusiasm- it's just through the roof," Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said.

In his Labor Day "Crystal Ball" predictions, Sabato projects Republicans will win as many as 47 seats in the House, more than the 39 needed for the GOP to take back the majority.

"Don't be shocked if the Republicans take over the Senate too," he said. Sabato predicts Republicans will pick up eight or nine seats there (they need 10 to take the majority), plus eight or nine governors races.

He called the Tea Party a "net positive" for Republicans. While the movement may have cost Republicans some seats by nominating "candidates that are not nearly as strong as some mainstream candidates," the enthusiasm factor was far more significant.

In midterm elections "only about 40 percent will come out to vote. That's why enthusiasm is so important. Republicans have got it and Democrats are depressed."

Sabato called today's predictions "conservative" and "cautious." "We could have gone well beyond 47," he said.

CBS News senior political producer Jill Jackson and CBS Radio News White House correspondent Peter Maer were also on Thursday's "Washington Unplugged" with Cordes.

Interactive Map: CBS News Election 2010 Race Ratings

"Washington Unplugged," CBSNews.com's exclusive daily politics Webshow, appears live on CBSNews.com each weekday at 2 p.m. ET. Click here to check out previous episodes.


Add a Comment
by camorris232 September 13, 2010 2:30 PM EDT
These posts are remarkably comical! Thank you for your insanity...it made me laugh on what was just another blah Monday.
Reply to this comment
by mwfcolorado September 2, 2010 7:32 PM EDT
Democrats deserve to lose.


Just a suggestion to Democrats if you expect to retain a majority following the 2010 election:

Grow a pair. A HUGE pair. A HUGE *****ing PAIR OF *alls.

Why do the democrats refuse to refute the LIES of the republican party? (whatever happened to "truth in advertising" in this country?) If you really want to run a successful campaign to win re-election, you need to denounce the LIES that the American public has been subjected to by the extremists on the right (and essentially all republicans).

1) When a republican calls a Democrat a "liberal", it's time to let the world know that PROGRESS is not a dirty word. Progress got us out of caves and made life more enjoyable, convenient and comfortable.

2) Conservative is another word for the desire to live in the same caves mentioned in #1 above. (And don't 'conservatives' denounce those 'taly-bans' living in caves?)

3) When the right claims Democrats are the "tax and spend" party, you need to nail home the concept that republicans are the "Borrow and spend" party.

4) LIES, LIES, LIES, LIES, LIES in BOLD lettering for every LIE the republicans spew. There is a concept of "truth in advertising" and the Democrat party needs to get behind that idea.

5) Do you really feel the need to cater to morons that think President Obama is an 'elitist', a muslim, and not American? Those people are NOT going to change their racist minds - no need to bother attempting to alter the minds of people that belong in an asylum.

6) While on the topic of racism, it was the Texas republican organization that was selling "Obama Waffles" at their convention in 2008. It was a 'right wing conservative' group that portrayed Michelle Obama as a monkey in a photo-shopped photo, as well as the Obama White House with a foreground of a watermelon patch. The right IS a bunch of racists - time to call them out. You have little time to do so, I suggest you get on the ball.

(And NO, the left is not racist, no matter how loud you scream it. They welcome minorities into their party and attempt to protect those that do not have a voice. Not once has Michael Steele been the subject of some racist commentary or photo-shopped photo by anyone on the left.)

For some bizarre, inexplicable reason, the Democrats just allow this stuff to become reality by not denouncing it ON AN HOURLY, DAILY basis.

7) Call a spade a spade or, a moron a moron. People will stand up and listen when you have the huevos to call someone out. I mean, "death panels"? Are you serious? Who in the world would ever believe America would have 'death panels', other than an idiot that couldn't find Mexico on a map? But you allowed the republicans to control the conversation. Which brings me to point #8

8) CONTROL THE CONVERSATION. Do NOT let republicans hijack the agenda of the controlling party. You have failed MISERABLY on this count, so do not expect to retain control of Congress after the November election.

So if you you lose in November, you have only yourselves to blame.
Reply to this comment
by HemiHead66 September 2, 2010 10:39 PM EDT
Great comment! While all of these lying Republicans were pouring out headlines for the last year and a half, the Democrats did very little to set the record straight. The Dems think the people will see and make the smart choice. Little do they know - the people of this country have become brain-dead headline readers, that never bother to search for the truth. And now we find out that the billionaire Koch brothers have been financing the tea-party all along, and are the ones behind the smear campaign on Obama. Obama's no prize, but the Republicans will finish this country off on their nation-building adventures, cutting taxes for all their rich friends and outsourcing our jobs. This is class warfare, and the top plan to reduce the middle class to that of the Chinese workers. Mark my word! Smarten up people.
by TPS2 September 3, 2010 1:41 AM EDT
HemiHead66
Little do they know - the people of this country have become brain-dead headline readers, that never bother to search for the truth

Reminds you of the last presidential election doesn't it.
See all 5 Replies
by Myopinion046 September 2, 2010 4:53 PM EDT
Who cares what a professor, over 90% being liberals after all, thinks?
Reply to this comment
by Just_Wonder September 9, 2010 12:15 PM EDT
One might also say "who cares what you think". Now as mwfcolorado has alluded to, trying to use the term liberal as an insult is just plain stupid. A liberal would accept that label as fact and quite probably as a compliment. I would also ask just where you came up with the "over 90%" figure. Has there been a survey of college professors with regard to their political leanings? And what exactly does that mean? Do you understand the definition of liberal and conservative? Look it up and then evaluate your comment in the context of the actual defintion.
by 34sender September 2, 2010 4:39 PM EDT
I wonder if Larry Sabato wants the egg on his face fried or scrambled come November 2nd.

(He can ask his Virginia buddies in the Governor and AG seats to wash it off for him... if they can find the time away from their assault on the liberties ALL Americans are entitled to, not just their conservative base...)
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