Can Obama Meet the Next Iraq Deadline?

By: David Martin
Topics: Foreign Policy ,; White House

(Credit: AP)

Now that the proverbial page has been turned in Iraq, what's next?

On paper, it's the withdrawal of all remaining U.S. troops by the end of 2011. Many experts think that will be harder than getting to 50,000.

The current plan is to stay at 50,000 until next summer, then begin a rapid drawdown to zero by the end of the year. That's what the agreement between Iraq and the U.S., signed by the Bush Administration, calls for and that's what Obama Administration officials insist will happen.

But at least one senior Iraqi commander has been quoted as saying that American troops will be needed until 2020, and many people expect the Iraqi government (if they ever succeed in forming one) will ask to renegotiate the agreement.

Obama Hails End of Iraq Combat, Stresses Economy
U.S. Officially Marks Last Phase of Iraq War
Full Video of Obama's Iraq Speech

Question is: would the Obama Administration agree to a request to extend the American troop presence?

The president promised to end the war and the temptation to seal that promise by going to 0 just as he started gearing up for his reelection would be powerful. On the other hand, it is hard to see how he would jeopardize all the blood and treasure invested in Iraq just to meet a time table.

President Obama still has some tough decisions to make in Iraq and as former ambassador Ryan Crocker likes to point out, the events that will determine the outcome of the American adventure in Iraq have yet to happen.

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Real Risks for 50,000 U.S. Troops Still in Iraq
A Bittersweet Homecoming for Iraq Troops

David Martin is CBS News' National Security Correspondent. You can read more of his posts in Hotsheet here.

David Martin
David Martin is CBS News' National Security Correspondent.

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by stn_sage September 2, 2010 1:18 AM EDT: It doesn't matter now anyway. Too little, too late!; Reply to this comment


by Myopinion046 September 1, 2010 3:49 PM EDT: He'll meet it.; Reply to this comment


by rickwarre September 1, 2010 3:23 PM EDT: In answer to the question: Yes. In case noone noticed they have asked us to leave.; Reply to this comment


by endurorob_5 September 1, 2010 2:19 PM EDT: Just_Wonder September 1, 2010 2:00 PM EDT
Rob, Why would he do anything else? We are not at war with Iraq. The government is one we put in place and the time table was aggreed to by both the Iraqis and us. We gain little if anything by staying and should we ask to stay and the Iraqis say no then we lose face on the world stage. Our military is overextended as it is now.

We would not be the ones asking to stay. It would eb the Iraqis asking us to stay. What we would gain by stating, if that became necessary, is preventing AQ and others like them from gaining a foothold there and a base for more terrorist training. A time line is great but it is foolish to be unwilling to mdify a timeline if necessary. Also, it is widely felt that we unecesarily invaded Iraq and if you are of that belief then it is our respnsibility to ensure the mess we made gets cleaned up.; Reply to this comment

by endurorob_5 September 1, 2010 12:40 PM EDT

Question is: would the Obama Administration agree to a request to extend the American troop presence?

Highly doubtfull. He would do the political thing and stick to the time table.

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by Just_Wonder September 1, 2010 2:00 PM EDT: Rob, Why would he do anything else? We are not at war with Iraq. The government is one we put in place and the time table was aggreed to by both the Iraqis and us. We gain little if anything by staying and should we ask to stay and the Iraqis say no then we lose face on the world stage. Our military is overextended as it is now.