Is Kendrick Meek's Florida Primary Win Bad News for Democrats?

AP

If you want to understand how covering politics can sometimes seem as if you fallen won the rabbit hole into Wonderland, consider the fallout from Florida's Democratic Senate primary.

Kendrick Meek, a member of the U.S. House with strong support form all corners of the Democratic establishment, soundly trounced Jeff Greene, a multi-millionaire challenge whose chief claim to fame was ownership of a lavish yacht on which eyebrow-raising events occurred.

So Democrats should be happy, right?

Not so fast; Meek's victory is being greeted by some in the party as very bad news, hurting their chances of taking a U.S. Senate seat away from the Republicans.

When the midterm cycle began, it was a sure bet that Republicans would hold onto to the Senate seat. Florida's Governor, Republican Charlie Crist, was expected to win without breaking a sweat. As it turned out, Crist fell victim to the rising "Tea Party" sentiment that drove Arlen Specter out of the GOP, and cost Utah Senator Bob Bennett his political future.

Interactive Map: CBS News Election 2010 Race Ratings

Angered by his embrace of President Obama --- the embrace, or hug, was literal on one occasion --- Florida Republicans moved in growing numbers to the primary candidacy of Marco Rubio, a dynamic former state House Speaker who advocated a more militant conservative politics. By the late Spring, it was clear that Rubio would swamp Crist in the GOP primary.

Crist then decided to leave the Republican fold, and run as an independent in the November election. In leaving the GOP, Crist also broke with his former party on issue ranging from abortion to public employee unions; moreover, he hinted that if elected, he might well caucus with the Democrats when it came to organizing the U.S. Senate. That would be a major, unexpected pickup for Democrats, whose control of the Senate is very much in doubt.

All summer, Crist began receiving tacit support from Democrats, especially when polls showed Meek running far behind Rubio and Crist. But how could Democrats openly desert the candidate of their party?

At left, watch strategists from both parties discusses the winners and losers from last night's primaries on Washington Unplugged.

That's where Jeff Greene provided hope, of a sort. With his lack of experience in politics, and with his checkered political past, the prospect of a Greene victory --- fueled by millions of dollars from Greene's vast wealth --- offered Democrats a way out. They could repudiate him without alienating any elements of the Democratic base.

Meek offers no such chance. He is not only a clearly qualified candidate, but if elected, he would be the only African-American in the U.S. Senate. Deserting Meek for Crist, then, could well cause long term headaches among the Democratic party's most loyal voters --- a headache the beleagued party can ill afford.

The lingering question is: what happens if, in October, Meek still trails far behind Crist and Rubio? Do Democrats walk away from their nominee and hope that independent Crist wins, and then joins Democrats? Do they double-down on their nominee?

This is no academic exercise. The answer may wind up determining who controls the United States Senate next year.

More election coverage:

Pictures: 2010 Campaign So Far
If Miller Wins, Will Alaskans Really Turn Backs on Federal Government Largess?
Rick Scott Win: Bad News for Republicans?
Alaska Election Results Provide a Boost to Palin
Murkowski Trails in Tight Alaska Primary
Meek Wins Florida Democratic Senate Primary
McCain Wins GOP Nomination for Senate in Ariz.
Arizona Primary Results: Ben Quayle Wins

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Jeff Greenfield is CBS News' senior political correspondent. You can read more of his posts in Hotsheet here

[bundye]

Writers for these articles need to check and recheck their writing skills, grammar, etc....they are sometimes very horrible. If you need help, call on me.

[jjoe57]

Greenfield's assessment is thought-provoking, but the outcome may be different this November if Republicans split their vote between Rubio and Crist. That may give Meek a victory.

[jjoe57]

Greene's assessment is thought-provoking, but the outcome may be different this November if Republicans split their vote between Rubio and Crist. That may give Meek a victory.

[bradkt1]

This is where the Democrats need a political strategist with Karl Rove's skills. Consider what happened in Connecticut when Joe Lieberman...who was an ally of the Bush Administration...lost the Democratic nomination in the primary and ran as an independent. Rove engineered a situation where no meaningful Republican ran and the GOP voters voted for Lieberman, thus allowing Lieberman to win the general election and continue to be an ally of the Bush Administration.

This is the problem with Kendrick Meek. He can't win, but he will be the spoiler and keep Crist (who will support the Democrats) from beating Marco Rubio. Crist will work with the Democrats but Rubio won't. Rubio will just be another conservative who says no to everything.

Democrats...at least most of them...don't know how to win. That's why they are in the trouble that they are in right now. The GOP put this country in the economic toilet but the Democrats have allowed the GOP to hijack the political discussion and are on the ropes right now. Just two years after sending this country in the economic toilet, the GOP could very well take back the House of Representatives and have veto-proof minority control of the Senate.

[patocc123]

So you start off by making some good points and wind up then ended up posting as a DNC lemming. I've heard the chewbaca defense many times but this is probably the first time I've seen the chewbaca prosectution.

[pensacola8-2009]

The campaign ends in November, not tonight, as some are hoping. Many of the hottest elections defied predictions in less than 90 days.

[saturn05]

It is so nice to see a newcomer and one with the support of two powerful Democrats. Wake up media, you don't control what the average joe thinks or how we vote.

[lifer66]

Hello readers. Let me introduce myself to you. I am average Joe Independent, neither rich nor dumb, and I and my kind are changing this election to come. Personally I am glad the politcal hacks are so misinformed. They really cannot not fathom that it's the independents that are rising up and shaking the foundations of incumbant strongholds. It will make the coming election wins over the pompous ones that much sweeter! Both the red and the blue will fall, who will win the hallowed halls?

[baileyccc]

Bill Clinton and President Obama both came to Florida to support Meeks. That is all I need to know and he has my vote.

[kevingrze]

Too much Washington insiders, vote for the best candidate. I would not trust Crist one way or the other; however, he is decent and supports the working class more than Rubio, Rubio only supports the rich elite.

[propitiation]

It appears that Rubio has really shot ahead in the recent polls. PPD (D)
Rubio - 40%
Crist - 32%
Meek - 17%
Rubio is pretty solid. The race will should him maintaining that 40%, Crist will drop in the polls, and Meek will go up in the polls. Rubio, will probably win.

[us_1776]

And the latest Quinnipiac poll has Crist winning by 8 points.

Charlie Crist has an uncanny ability to win elections. Nobody knows the political landscape better than Charlie Crist.