Is Obama's Re-Election a Sure Bet?

By: Stephanie Condon
Topics: Campaign 2012

(Credit: AP)

Americans are increasingly unsure of President Obama's handling of the economy, a new CBS News poll released this morning shows -- but come 2012, unless there's another economic meltdown, that lack of confidence in the president will have zero impact on how people vote, one professor contends.

Mr. Obama's re-election is virtually guaranteed, according to a formula concocted by American University Professor Allan Lichtman. Little beyond a massive scandal directly tied to the president or a major military or foreign policy failure could change that, according to Lichtman's system, which he calls the "13 Keys."

"Nothing that a candidate has said or done during a campaign, when the public discounts everything as political, has changed his prospects at the polls," Lichtman says. "Debates, advertising, television appearances, news coverage and campaign strategies -- the usual grist for the punditry mills--count for virtually nothing on Election Day."

The "13 Keys" are 13 factors that will impact the outcome of the popular vote, according to Lichtman. If at least eight of those factors are "true" (such as Key No. 2, which states, "There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination"), the "Keys" predict the incumbent will win. Nine of the "Keys" are currently true for Mr. Obama.

Lichtman's system predicted George W. Bush's 2004 re-election as early as April 2003, Al Gore's popular vote victory in 2000, Bill Clinton's win in 1996, George Bush's defeat in 1992, and the outcome of the 1988 presidential election.

The "Keys" consider the state of the economy, but only broadly. For Mr. Obama, Key No. 5 is, for now, anticipated to be true: "The economy is not in recession during the election campaign." Key No. 6, however, does not favor Mr. Obama: "Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms."

None of the keys, meanwhile, account for the other crisis currently plaguing the nation: the Gulf oil spill. Lichtman explained that such a crisis would have to be directly tied to the president in order for it to affect his chances for re-election.

"I'm not saying the oil spill isn't significant, but it's not as if there's some big collusion between the Obama administration and BP," Lichtman told the Hotsheet. If that were the case, it would change Key No. 9 from "true" to "false": "The administration is untainted by major scandal."

In some cases, Lichtman is conservative in his estimates of the president's chances at re-election. For instance, he pegs Key No. 12 -- "The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero" -- as "false," even though many people characterize Mr. Obama as charismatic.

"I think the magic he had during the campaign seems to have disappeared once he entered the Washington bubble," he said.

On the other hand, Lichtman also declared Key No. 13 fase -- "The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero."

"I just don't see anyone on the Republican side who's another Ronald Reagan," he said. "There are candidates like Sarah Palin who excite a small segment of the population, but that's not what it means to be a charismatic candidate. John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, had broad appeal, even to people who didn't necessarily agree with their ideologies."

Stephanie Condon
Stephanie Condon is a political reporter for CBSNews.com.
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by ulmew July 14, 2010 1:16 PM EDT: This would be great if the assumptions used for the formula were accurate. Unfortunately there are a few that are not.
Key 1 hasn't happened yet, but will almost certainly be false.
Keys 2, 3, and 4 are all probably going to be true, unless one considers Ron Paul significant, which given the energy of the Tea Party, he actually, horrifyingly, could be.
Key 5 depends on one's definition of recession. It is based on two assumptions, one of which is incorrect and one of which is yet to be determined: 1. In presidential politics, whether there have actually been two quarters of negative growth is meaningless if there is a widespread perception that we are in a recession. So unless the economy is improving significantly, then we are in a recession as far as swing voters are concerned. and 2. There is some significant evidence to suggest that we could be facing a double dip recession. If republicans retake the house and cut government spending this could very well happen.
Key 6, like Key 5, is still to be determined. However they probably have it right with the false.
Key 7 is definitely true, and healthcare is much more popular than republicans like to claim.
Key 8 is debateable. The rise in right wing extremist groups, coupled with the emergence of the Tea Party, suggests that unrest could get worse. As of now it doesnt really qualify as unrest, but let's see what happens when all their candidates get creamed in the midterms for being unserious and holding views that would have been considered fringe 5 years ago.
Key 9 is mostly true at this point, but if Republicans retake the house and Issa gets his way then they will manufacture scandals and hold hearings on them. They will make the manufactured scandals of the Clinton years look mild by comparison.
Key 10 assumes that the Afghanistan pull out in July 2011 occurs as planned and violence doesn't escalate before or after it happens.
Key 11 assumes that Afghanistan doesn't go surprisingly well and become a major accomplishment for the Obama Administration and a campaign pledge that he unquestionably made good on.
Keys 12 and 13 assume that the Republicans pick one of the people they are currently considering, which they probably will.; Reply to this comment

by JohnFree July 14, 2010 5:13 AM EDT

I think that if Obama is reelected there is a strong possibility of civil war.

Right vs The Left/communists/progressives/socialists/globalists/college professors/the City of San Fransisco.........et el.

You liberals have no idea how angry we on the right are....and our numbers are growing daily.

AND

You don't seem to have a clue as to how much damage has been done to America since Obamination entered office. ($12 Trillion in Debt, a lacerated Constitution and a health care system destroyed.)

I view Obama/Pelosi/Reid as the worst things to happen to America since the last civil war.

These EVIL people must be stopped.

Already my children and grandchildren are going to suffer.

Reply to this comment


by ogersteiner July 15, 2010 12:24 AM EDT: Relax, if President Obama gets re-elected and your children and grandchildren will not suffer. Please go back an read the history of the United States. We have been through worse times as a country and come out better than most of our global Allies and enemies. Politics is Politics. Politicians come and go. How we handle ourselves, our environment and the people we touch on a daily basis determines the outcome of how we effect the World. We can scream, yell and be angry or we can be civil, discuss and be at peace with ourselves and each other. It's ok to get fired up but don't lose perspective. Civility and concern for ALL Americans is how we move forward to solve our problems. Remember united we stand divided we fall.


by JayAdler1 July 14, 2010 1:49 AM EDT: This gentleman is a scholar and I respect that but you cannot predict elections attached to controlled experiments and hypothesis. Remember what happened to Truman the next morning. Whenever I go to Belmont Raceway and somebody gives me a tip as a "sure thing", my reply is always this "Did you talk to the horses?". My theory is that if the House and Senate flips in November to create a new Speaker and majorities in both Houses, it is possible that Obama may become a veto President with a pretty bad domestic record. Odds are, just as Bill Clinton accomplished, a not so well known Republican with the right stuff will win big in 2012. When voters are angry they will create change, period. Now this is just a theory of what may happen, as for myself, I do not make political predictions but I remember when they used to say "It's the economy, stupid". They were on the mark.; Reply to this comment


by LIBERALS-lie July 13, 2010 7:02 PM EDT: He is working on his 2012 election ? Now there is tax money/TARP $$$ well spent.; Reply to this comment


by jsboxon July 13, 2010 6:46 PM EDT: GREAT VIDEO: Like Reagan, SarahPalin an "Idiot" and the PRESIDENT: http://*******/Idiot-Presidents; Reply to this comment

by verypublishedwriter July 13, 2010 3:04 PM EDT

And indeed President Obama should be (handily) re-elected. He's the brightest, most capable, most rigorously active president of my 57 years. And I feel certain he'll become recognized as the best American president since FDR.

Obama-Biden, 2012!!!

Reply to this comment


by Perish1 July 13, 2010 4:07 PM EDT: by verypublishedwriter July 13, 2010 3:04 PM EDT
And indeed President Obama should be (handily) re-elected. He's the brightest, most capable, most rigorously active president of my 57 years. And I feel certain he'll become recognized as the best American president since FDR.
--------------------------

Obama has done nothing to back up any of your assertions. If it is just your opinion, that is fine, but you should come with a disclaimer. I think that he will also be re-elected but simply because there is no viable alternative being offered by the Republicans. Over 40% are still polling in favor of Obama and that number is close to the same number that is on welafare or getting some form of payment from the government, or on the government union payroll, or black(which vote as a group democrat no matter what). He only needs to keep around a small percent of people and he has it made. The gulf disaster affects mostly states who already voted republican and the northern democrats really could care less about anything or anybody other than themselves. The democrats reaction, or lack of it, to all of the environmental issues here shows that everything about thenm was always just lies to hide political motives. they could care less about the gulf or how much fish and wildlife die as long as they have their party in power.


by dmwj2 July 13, 2010 5:06 PM EDT: Perish - you sir are an arse... I am a dem, and I care!! All Dems are not on welfare... As a matter of fact, I know more conservatives on the government teet. Most dems work for a living.


by Absurdtomany July 13, 2010 2:50 PM EDT: Doesn't anyone see anything wrong with Michelle Obama and the Obama Administration backing the NAACP in saying that the Tea Party is a racist orgainization, all the while the Black Panther Party was at election poles preventing American citizens from voting with force, bullying, and threats? This is Absurd! And this issue needs attention from the news, newspapers, magazines, etc because I want the president to tell me why he's allowed this to happen, and I want him to anwser for his wifes comments about how the Black Panther party isn't racist but the Tea Party is. The Tea Party is concerned about ALL the Nation's People tax situation and financial future with the government spending borrowed money, and then promising that the American people will pay for it.

What good does teh BPP do, except discriminate against all whites, bully/verbally/physically threaten white voters at election booths and elsewhere, when they don't get their way. Well if they learned anything from the 1960's it should have learned that, but they obvioulsy didn't. Not to mention most White People here today didn't live here until the 1900's b/c they came from over from other countries, through Elis Island NY.

I think they just completely showed their 'full hand of cards' to America. They are a bunch of racist themselfs because they support the NAACP and Black Panther Party, but oppose tax breaks for America and stopping the federal government from spending money they don't have.; Reply to this comment

by irishmaninaz July 13, 2010 12:59 PM EDT

Burn me once, shame on you. Burn me twice, shame on me. Have faith. Americans cannot really be that stupid.

Reply to this comment


by ogersteiner July 15, 2010 12:26 AM EDT: "There's an old saying in Tennessee ? I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee ? that says, fool me once, shame on ? shame on you. Fool me ? you can't get fooled again." ?Nashville, Tenn., Sept. 17, 2002
- President George W. Bush JR.


by cleric60 July 13, 2010 12:44 PM EDT: QUESTION? Does the average USA citizen want a socialistic president for another 4 years??? Does the average USA citizen want a federal government to control their education, their health care, their money, their employment or lack of employment or even the size of their family?
Do the average USA citizen think that foreign nations really respect our nation under the leadership of Prez. Obama???; Reply to this comment

by txnbybrth July 13, 2010 11:59 AM EDT

Won't happen. For him it will be worse than a private citizen writing a resume full of buzz words, phrases and expressions the prospective employer responds to in a positive way...so much so he never bothers to check his references. Then, after the new employee starts and works there for a while, the employer realizes he made a hiring mistake...this is where the country is today. Some are more readily willing to admit we made a mistake, some are not willing to admit it publicly but know it in their hearts and the rest say 'they knew he wouldn't work out' all along...same thing. Worse for him because the whole world knows he was all talk and no walk...can't get another gig (a position of influence) in this country, but may be able to run for King of the Muslim world ;-)

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by dmwj2 July 13, 2010 5:11 PM EDT: I completely disagree... you right wingers are completely delusional. Did you read the article?? This professor has an outstanding track record with his predictions for both Dems and Repubs... Come on man...